It's an all-out rally after the Central Bank holds – North American Session Market Wrap for April 30

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 30

Month-end trading sessions love to bring in a few elements of change and surprise, particularly after such bizarre trading in April.

This week brought pivotal fundamental events across all types of Markets, from five major Central Banks reporting to the largest-cap US Stocks revealing their Q1 numbers, with broad beats all around.

Overall, it seems that the former was the fuel and the latter the nitro, because global assets went on a drag race today.

When the US-Iran war began at the end of February, Crude Oil exploded and with it, brought its waves of panic across all classes. The panic stemmed from fears of inflationary booms and supply droughts, which brought with them repricing of rate hikes by Global Central Banks, hikes that were priced to be delivered during this pivotal week.

But the reality came as a boon for sentiment, with zero rate hikes and communications that were much closer to hesitation than to decision. While this doesn't necessarily mean that rate hikes are a thing of the past, the pauses at least allowed for a temporary Market celebration.

The US Dollar took a hit today, allowing Metals, Stock Markets (particularly the Dow Jones), and other currencies to take a breather.

The FX intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance probably played a role in the Dollar selloff, but it certainly wasn't the only catalyst.

Overnight, Crude prices bounced to new highs (for Brent, levels not seen since 2022) and very close to $120 for WTI. Luckily, this bounce did not last, as Energy commodities continue to trade in confusion.

Physical Markets are still under heavy pressure, but Futures and other Market pricing tools continue to fade with every extreme move – A catastrophe incoming or the sign of exhausted traders?

This is a question that will find its answer promptly – One that will either make or break Markets.

What is certain, at least, is that the Strait of Hormuz is still not open, and that Iran wants the US to lift the damaging blockade before heading to the next round of talks. The Deadlock persists in the meantime.

Read More:

• Metals shine bright after the FOMC meeting – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook
• Central banks edge toward rate hikes as energy shock revives inflation fears
• Defensive rebalancing for Month-End, the trend resumes? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday Outlook
• FX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD Overview

Today's Month-end, Dollar sale session brought life right back into assets that had been dawdling since at least the past week.

On the top of the board, Silver and the Dow Jones point to industrial, more defensive assets making a return particularly after the brilliant month in higher beta tech assets.

Next month should bring more mixed seasonals, not as bearish for the US Dollar. Hence, momentum and price action will dictate what's to come for Global Assets.

Talk about an FX session! The Ministry of Japan struck again and participants couldn't say that they did not warn about this.

A fresh intervention brought USD/JPY down 2.30% from 160.70 (new 2026 highs) right back below 156.50 in a matter of a few hours, breaking all sorts of technical supports in between – The Yen is at the top of the FX Market and by quite a margin.

With WTI Crude also turning lower and a seemingly disappointing ECB rate decision, both the Canadian Dollar and Euro took large hits

We are now past the largest volatility catalysts, but Traders still shouldn't be able to relax much.

Rumors of targeted US Strikes this weekend could add further clouds on the fundamental outlook, and add to it key PMI reports for the US and Canada, and that should provide food for thought, if not chaos for Markets.

JPY traders will also want to keep a close eye on the Japanese CPI release this evening to see if today's move can see further downside continuation.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier