Forex: All News & Analysis

EUR/GBP - UK at risk of recession after a disappointing October GDP reading

UK economy shrinks 0.3% in October Markets price in three rate cuts from the BoE next year EURGBP spikes ahead of BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow The UK economy got the fourth quarter off to a bad start, contracting by 0.3% in October from the month before. The UK economy is struggling under the pressure of higher interest rates and it seems wet weather compounded those challenges for retailers, encouraging consumers to stay indoors. There's every chance spending bounces back in November an

13-12-2023 10:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Fireworks expected from the final Fed meeting of the year

Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged Forecasts and dot plot key as markets price in four rate cuts next year EURUSD hovers around 50 Fib The final Fed meeting of the year could also be the most eventful, with the central bank likely to acknowledge it's done with tightening and even signal rate cuts next year. The question is how many, with markets now pricing in four starting in May. The interest rate decision itself will almost certainly be straightforward - on hold - but with new ec

13-12-2023 08:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD slips ahead of GDP, Fed meeting

New Zealand GDP expected to decelerate US inflation ticks lower Fed widely expected to pause The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower in Wednesday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 0.61%. US inflation ticks lower, all eyes on Fed US inflation ticked lower in October as expected and the release was a non-event for the markets, which slightly reduced their rate-cut pricing.

13-12-2023 07:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound declines on soft GDP, FOMC looms

UK GDP contracts by 0.2% US inflation ticks lower Fed makes rate announcement later on Wednesday The British pound is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2522, down 0.32%. UK GDP contracts in October The UK posted soft data today and the British pound has reacted with losses. The GDP report for October indicated that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September.

13-12-2023 06:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Core CPI rises ahead of FOMC

Talking Points US Core CPI impact on trader's interest rates expectations. EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical analysis 8-hour chart The US Consumer Price Index “US Core CPI” changes, a critical inflation gauge for the FED and traders were released this morning, the core CPI which excludes energy and food prices due to their volatile nature rose 0.3% for November 2023 after its previous October 2023 increase of 0.2%, as for the Core CPI y/y, it reflected an increase of 0.4%, although both were i

12-12-2023 13:03 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Australian dollar slips after US inflation ticks lower

US inflation eases to 3.1%, core rate unchanged at 4.0% Australia consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence slides The Australian dollar was up 0.35% prior to the US inflation release but has since reversed directions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6550, down 0.29%. US inflation ticks lower, core rate steady US inflation edged lower to 3.1% y/y in November, down from 3.2% in October and in line with the consensus estimate.

12-12-2023 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen rebounds, US inflation looms

Yen rebounds after two-day slide US inflation expected to drop to 3.0% The Japanese yen has ended a two-day slide, in which it dropped 1.4% against the US dollar. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.21, down 0.66%. Yen volatility continues The yen has been showing sharp swings since last Thursday, when signals from the Bank of Japan of a possible tightening in policy sent the yen soaring over 2% on Thursday.

12-12-2023 06:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD drifting ahead of US inflation

UK wage growth eases to 7.3%, lower than expected US inflation expected to fall to 3.0% The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2551, down 0.04%. UK wage growth falls to 7.3% Tuesday's UK employment report was notable for the decline in wage growth.

12-12-2023 04:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Potential JPY bullish pressure reasserts

The 2-day rebound seen in USD/JPY has reached 146.20/70 minor resistance zone. The movement of USD/JPY in the past month has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread. The short-term to medium-term trends of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread remain bearish. Watch the 146.70 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: Potential counter-trend rebound within medium-term downt

12-12-2023 00:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Big week on interest rates as Fed, BOE, ECB looms together with US CPI, Japan flash PMI

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic events that focus on the monetary policy decisions of key central banks; Fed, ECB, and BoE. Monetary policy officials may challenge the current aggressive dovish expectations on the trajectory of interest rate cuts for 2024. The primary focus will be on the release of the latest Fed's dot plot on Wednesday, 18 December together with the FOMC monetary policy meeting outcome; Fed funds interest rates futu

11-12-2023 21:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD extends losses, confidence data next

Australia releases consumer and business confidence on Tuesday The Australian dollar has posted slight losses in Monday trading. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6564, down 0.18%. The Aussie continues to show sharp swings and declined 1.50% last week.

11-12-2023 11:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - All eyes on the central banks and inflation data this week

Fed pivot may hang on tomorrow's CPI data Markets pricing in five rate cuts from ECB next year ahead of meeting EURUSD hangs around key support level A lackluster start to the week but there's so much to come over the next few days which could determine how markets end the year and start 2024. The US will be front and center this week even as events also unfold elsewhere. The Fed decision on Wednesday is unlikely to be controversial but the forecasts, dot plot and press conference that accompan

11-12-2023 10:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - Pound edges higher ahead of UK job data

UK to release employment report on Tuesday US nonfarm employment payrolls beats forecast and rise to 199,000 The British pound is showing little movement at the start of the week. In Monday's European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2576, up 0.22%. It's a busy week for UK releases which could translate into volatility from the British pound.

11-12-2023 06:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen correction continues

Japanese yen's slide continues Markets walk back expectations of a change at BoJ December meeting US nonfarm payrolls rise to 199,000, better than expected The Japanese yen has started the week where it left off on Friday, posting sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.16, up 0.83%. BoJ December mania wanes The yen soared over 2% on Thursday, after comments by senior BoJ officials triggered speculation that Bank of Japan might exit negative interest rates at the Dece

11-12-2023 04:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

How may the US Nonfarm Payroll numbers impact EURUSD Prices?

Talking Points US Data beat expectations, Nonfarm Payroll breakdown Technical analysis for EURUSD Daily Chart Conclusion, What’s next for EURUSD Price? US Data beat expectations, Nonfarm Payroll breakdown The November Nonfarm payroll numbers released this morning were better than expected, the US economy added 199K jobs last month, slightly above the median forecast of 185K jobs and the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% compared to the consensus of 3.9% supporting the theory that the US job mar

08-12-2023 20:45 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Australian dollar on a roller-coaster, US NFP looms

Australian dollar steady after sharp gains on Thursday US nonfarm payrolls expected to climb to 180,000 The Australian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6611, up 0.14%. It has been a roller-coaster week for the Australian dollar.

08-12-2023 06:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro flat as German inflation declines

German inflation confirmed at -0.4% US nonfarm payrolls project to accelerate to 180,000 The euro has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0774, down 0.17%.

08-12-2023 04:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen pushes higher, GDP softer than expected

Japan's Q3 GDP revised lower to -2.9% Japanese yen gains ground but can't consolidate US nonfarm payrolls expected to rise to 180,000 The Japanese yen continues to show strong swings. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.94, down 0.16%.

08-12-2023 03:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Potential counter-trend rebound within medium-term downtrend

Recent bizarre hawkish rhetoric from BoJ top officials ahead of Japan's 2024 nationwide spring wage negotiations sparked a further rally in JPY. Increasing expectations of a BoJ pivot to scrap its decade-long plus of short-term negative interest rate policy to come as early as this month, 19 December monetary policy meeting. The interest rates swap market has priced in a 45% chance of removal of negative interest rate on 19 December, a jump from the 3.5% chance seen earlier this week. USD/JPY re

08-12-2023 01:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

New Zealand dollar climbs ahead of NZ Manufacturing Sales

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales expected to improve to 0.9% China releases CPI on Saturday The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6168, up 0.48%. NZ manufacturing sales expected to rebound The manufacturing sector has been in a major slump worldwide and New Zealand has not been immune.

07-12-2023 12:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Forex: all news & analysis