Forex: All News & Analysis

EUR/GBP - ECB may consider rate cuts earlier than it wants to admit

ECB holds as expected Downside growth risks a concern EURGBP fails to hold above key resistance There were no major surprises from the ECB on Thursday, with the central bank leaving rates on hold while warning they will remain high for a sufficiently long duration. However, there were signs that policymakers are a little concerned about the economic consequences of all of this tightening, most notably the repeated references to weakness in the economy.

26-10-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

ECB React: Euro softer post dovish hold and robust US data

ECB keeps rates on hold as inflation and growth cool US Core PCE cools more-than-expected US continuing claims rise to the highest levels since May The US dollar was slightly firmer after a dovish hold by the ECB and after a handful of US economic readings boosted soft landing hopes as the labor market softened, quarterly Core PCE cooled more than expected, and economic growth surged last quarter.

26-10-2023 11:13 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD slips to 12-month low on Bullock's comments

AUD/USD falls to lowest level since October 2022 US GDP expected to jump to 4.3% The Australian dollar has pared losses from earlier today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6303, down 0.07%. Bullock shrugs off hot inflation Australian inflation was stronger than expected in the third quarter, raising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia might respond with a rate hike after four consecutive pauses.

26-10-2023 07:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls are in hesitant mode again as ECB looms

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls may have reached a key bearish reversal zone” published on 18 September 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the EUR/JPY have shaped the expected minor slide toward the highlighted support of 155.90 as mentioned in our previous report.

26-10-2023 07:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Big tech earnings, BoC hawkish hold, ECB preview

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, PMIs, and Thursday's ECB meeting.

26-10-2023 05:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

ECB expected to pause at today's meeting The euro continues to lose ground and has fallen over 1% since Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0545, down 0.19%. Will the ECB take a pause? It has been a long time coming, but barring a major surprise, the ECB will hold rates at today's meeting.

26-10-2023 04:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: Hovering around 150 as Japanese bond yields steadily rise

Japan 10-year bond yields rose 1.5bps to 0.852% Odds of a yield curve control adjustment are growing for next week's BOJ meeting Dollar-yen vulnerable to a surge above 150 on a robust US Q3 GDP print The pressure is building on the Bank of Japan. As the global bond market selloff resumes, Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy stance has allowed excessive yen weakness.

25-10-2023 13:52 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: BOC's hawkish hold provides little relief for loonie

Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 5.00% for a second straight meeting; keeps door open for future hikes Canadian dollar initially falls to a 7-month low against the greenback Easing war fears keep oil prices remain heavy but they are off session lows The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 5.00% for a second straight time. The bank upgraded their inflation forecast, which means they are maintaining a tightening bias going forward. The BOC statement noted that the council is “concerned that

25-10-2023 12:09 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY tiptoeing just shy of 150

Japanese yen remains close to 150 US GDP expected to accelerate to 4.5% Dollar-yen is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 149.91 in the North American session. Will yen break past 150? Like an acrobat on a tightrope, the yen has been hovering within a whisker of the 150 level. This has continued for almost two weeks, with investors keeping peeled eyes on the yen, waiting for it to breach the symbolic 150 line.

25-10-2023 10:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar falls despite CPI rise

Australia's CPI accelerates US PMIs show slight improvement The Australian dollar rose about 40 basis points on Wednesday after Australia's CPI surprised to the upside, but has reversed directions and is in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6335, down 0.32%. Australia's CPI accelerates Australian inflation was hotter than expected in the third quarter and that could translate into the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking rates after four consecutive pauses. Aus

25-10-2023 06:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/AUD bearish breakdown supported by additional China fiscal stimulus and AU inflation

Weak PMI readings from the Eurozone, an increase in China’s budget deficit ratio, and renewed inflationary pressures in Australia may trigger a persistent bearish sentiment loop in EUR/AUD. Watch the key short-term resistance at 1.6700 for EUR/AUD. A break below 1.6250 key medium-term support on the EUR/AUD may trigger a multi-week bearish impulsive down move. The Euro (EUR) tumbled overnight throughout the US session as it erased its prior gains against the US dollar recorded on Monday, 23 Oc

24-10-2023 21:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY: Dollar unfazed by in-line two year auction

Two-year auction demanded a 5.055% yield, lower than prior auction yield of 5.085% Bid-to-cover 2.64x vs 2.73x prior (lower than 1-year average) Flattening trade remains: 2-year yield +3.2bps; 5-year +0.2bps; 10-year -1.9bps; 30-year -2.7bps With US debt becoming a focal point for traders, Wall Street is now paying close attention to Treasury auctions. The early afternoon two-year Treasury auction went relatively smoothly. Demand came in-line with the 1-year average with this breakdown: indir

24-10-2023 13:55 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/GBP - ECB probably done hiking as the economy edges toward recession

Weak eurozone PMIs point to further economic deterioration UK data roughly in line but downside risks remain EURGBP threatens to break above range resistance It's been another mixed session on Tuesday with investors potentially eyeing important events later in the week. The PMIs across Europe earlier in the day didn't get things off to a great start and further backed the view that the region is heading for a recession if it isn't already in one.

24-10-2023 13:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD: King dollar is back on US economic exceptionalism

US October Flash Services PMI rose to 50.9 vs 49.9 expected, highest reading since July 2023 Eurozone October Flash Services PMI fell to 47.8 vs 48.6 eyed, lowest reading since Feb 2021 Eurozone October Flash PMI fell to 43.0 vs 43.7 eyed, 16th straight month of contraction The US dollar rose on both resilient economic data as non-tech earnings impress across the board. The US flash PMIs came in better-than-expected, clearly outperforming what we saw earlier from Europe. The data is vindicati

24-10-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains, employment report next

Australia's inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar has extended this week's gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.36%. Australia's inflation expected to continue falling Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the significance of each release.

24-10-2023 10:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound edges lower as employment market cools

UK labour market cools UK Manufacturing and Service PMIs decline The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday, after climbing 0.68% a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2218, down 0.23%. UK job growth, unemployment rises The UK has released "experimental" employment data on Tuesday, replacing the standard labour market survey due to falling response rates.

24-10-2023 08:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - ECB's upcoming rate pause, AU and US inflation data to monitor

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss several key highlights and events for this week; ECB monetary policy meeting (consensus is expecting a pause on interest rates in the Eurozone after ten consecutive rate hikes), Australia's Q3/monthly (Sep) inflation data, and US PCE inflation data (Sep). https://open.spotify.com/episode/3U27ENSLyHyLSVjYD6Vntn

24-10-2023 04:39 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Japanese yen shrugs after PMI releases

Japanese PMI point to softness in manufacturing and services Speculation rises that BoJ could tweak yield control policy The Japanese yen has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.44, down 0.18%. Japan posts soft PMIs Japanese Flash PMIs for October failed to impress, but the impact on the Japanese yen was muted.

24-10-2023 04:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY bullish momentum seems to be fading

USD/JPY’s current year-to-date outperformance has started to dissipate based on a shorter-term one-month rolling basis. A disappointing Japan Services PMI (flash) for October has failed to ignite an intraday bullish movement in USD/JPY. Three main factors that are likely to be the cause; intervention risk, inter-market expectations, and momentum. Watch the key 20-day moving average on the USD/JPY, now acting as support at 149.30. The major uptrend phase of the USD/JPY in place since mid-January

24-10-2023 02:27 GMT by Kelvin Wong

BTC/USD: Is Bitcoin Back?

Bitcoin hits $31,000, highest levels since July Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Bitcoin position turns positive (average $29,582 purchase price) Major bond market yield reversal keeps cryptos broadly supported (Eth up 3.4%, Solana up 2.4%, and Dogecoin up 4.9%) Bitcoin is rallying alongside tech stocks as the bond market has a major reversal. Today's rally that took prices to a three-month high is not about spot Bitcoin ETF optimism but about a significant reversal in the dollar and 10-year Tre

23-10-2023 14:57 GMT by Edward Moya

Forex: all news & analysis