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Forex: all news & analysis

Explore our comprehensive Forex Archive, an essential resource that provides expert insights on price movements, trends, and the currency market. By analysing past price actions and key events, you can uncover vital market dynamics and elevate your understanding of effective trading strategies. Whether you're focusing on major currency pairs or emerging markets, our archive is packed with information to help you sharpen your trading decisions.

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EUR/USD - Eurozone inflation eases further than expected, US ECI a minor concern
Eurozone HICP inflation falls to 2.9% in October  US ECI rises to 1.1% in Q3 EURUSD continues to look weak Inflation in the eurozone fell below 3% in October, with energy and food prices helping to push the headline number even lower than expected. While this is undoubtedly good news, the core number is probably a more accurate reflection of where things stand and the job the ECB still has in reining in inflation in a sustainable manner. Energy prices in particular are still volatile and base e
31-10-2023 11:05 GMT by Craig Erlam
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A trick or a treat from the Bank of Japan: an indirect way of scrapping the YCC
BoJ has subtly removed the 1% “hard-capped” upper limit of the 10-year JGB yield which suggests an imminent end to YCC may come sooner than expected. Upbeat revised inflation forecasts for FY 2023 to FY 2025 gave a boost to the Japanese stock market where the Nikkei 225 has managed to stage a rebound from its key 200-day MA acting as a support at 30,490, The JPY has ignored the indirect mild hawkish guidance from BoJ, and the JPY is the weakest major currency (-1.10% intraday) so far against t
31-10-2023 07:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY - Yen plummets despite BoJ tweak
BoJ tweaks YCC, maintains 1% upper limit Japanese yen sinks The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Tuesday following the Bank of Japan policy meeting. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.65, up 1.06%. BoJ loosens grip on yield cap The Bank of Japan tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) policy on Tuesday, a small step that nevertheless sent the Japanese yen tumbling.
31-10-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD Technical: Potential residual push down within bullish reversal configuration
The price actions of AUD/USD have started to oscillate within an impending “Descending Wedge” bullish reversal configuration. The emergence of the “Descending Wedge” coupled with positive reading seen in the daily RSI momentum indicator indicates its current medium-term downtrend phase from the 3 February 2023 high may be coming to its tail-end. In the short term, the AUD/USD is at risk of staging a potential residual push down to retest the lower boundary of the “Descending Wedge” acting as su
31-10-2023 04:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD: Dollar enthusiasm may have peaked (Bloomberg's MLIV survey)
The Bloomberg's MLIV Pulse survey results from October 23-27th  (528 respondents including me) October MLIV Pulse saw dollar enthusiasm eased from the 60% peak to 59%. The Nasdaq 100 will decline by as much as 10% this quarter, according to 45% 85% believe the so-called real neutral rate - which strips out the effect of inflation- has risen to around 100 basis points or higher, from estimate of about 50bps 10-year Treasury rose 4.3 bps to 4.879%   At the beginning of the month, plenty of to
30-10-2023 15:59 GMT by Edward Moya
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NZ dollar rises, business confidence next
New Zealand dollar posts strong gains New Zealand Business Confidence expected to remain positive The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5828 up 0.53%. It has been a miserable October for the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen 2.78%.
30-10-2023 13:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro pushes higher as German inflation falls
German inflation falls to 3.8% Eurozone inflation expected to follow suit on Wednesday The euro is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0502, up 0.36%. German inflation slides Germany's consumer inflation dropped to 3.8% y/y in October, down sharply from 4.5% in September and below the market consensus of 4.0%.
30-10-2023 10:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY holds below 150 ahead of BoJ meeting
BoJ's holding 2-day meeting on Monday and Tuesday The Japanese yen is drifting on Monday after pushing the US dollar back below 150 on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.71, up 0.05%. Will BoJ tweak yield curve control? The Bank of Japan holds its two-day meeting beginning on Monday and there's plenty of anticipation around the meeting.
30-10-2023 08:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY Technical: Bearish elements sighted at key resistance zone
Last Friday, 27 Oct price actions of the USD/JPY led to the formation of a weekly bearish reversal “Shooting Star” candlestick right at a key resistance zone of 150.30/150.90. Medium-term momentum has turned lacklustre as indicated by the bearish divergence condition seen in the daily RSI. Watch the potential downside trigger level of 149.30 (20-day moving average) on the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY bullish momentum seems to be fading” published on 24 Oct
30-10-2023 07:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Nikkei 225: Short-term positive momentum emerged ahead of BoJ
Recent decline in the Nikkei 225 has managed to stall again at the key 200-day moving average with positive momentum seen in the hourly RSI indicator. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest quarterly outlook report will be closely watched; upbeat inflationary forecasts for FY 2023/2024 may signal a faster pace of monetary policy normalization. The TOPIX Banks and Financials sectors have started to price in such a “quickened pace” of policy normalization scenario in the past week. Watch the 30,490/30,32
30-10-2023 02:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD: Surges to highest levels since October 2022; Commodity prices remain volatile on geopolitical headlines
Loonie lower as oil prices pare earlier gains Overnight Index Swaps eye BOC's next move as a rate cut in H2 2024 Fed funds futures see a 31% chance of a rate by the January 31st FOMC meeting The US dollar is rallying against the Canadian dollar as the odds of one more rate hike seem more likely with the Fed than with the BOC.  After the BOC's October 25th meeting, traders appear convinced that the bank is done raising rates. Today's impressive US  economic data showed core PCE came in a little
27-10-2023 13:03 GMT by Edward Moya
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Next week will be huge for the dollar: Treasury Refunding Statement, BOJ and Fed Decisions
Fed expected to keep rates on hold despite robust US GDP/personal consumption/spending data Monthly pace of core inflation ticked higher October's PCE reading however is expected to cool towards 3.2% Any chance of a dovish hold by the Fed went out the window after core PCE posted its largest gain in four months.  Despite another round of robust US economic data (spending and PCE deflator), Treasury yields remain anchored as the Middle East conflict widens.  In response to attacks made on US
27-10-2023 10:56 GMT by Edward Moya
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Aussie rises, US Core PCE Price Index eases
AUD/USD extends gains US Core PCE Prices ticks lower The Australian dollar is higher on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6350, up 0.42%. The RBA meets next on November 7th and we are seeing strong swings in RBA rate odds.
27-10-2023 08:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD shrugs as ECB holds rates
ECB holds rates, as expected US to release Core PCE Price Index The euro is having a quiet day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0547, down 0.15%. ECB holds rates at 4.0% There wasn't much drama leading up to the ECB rate decision on Thursday, as a pause in rates was widely expected.
27-10-2023 07:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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CHF/JPY Technical: At risk of a multi-day corrective decline reinforced by a hotter Tokyo CPI
Several key bearish technical elements have emerged on the CHF/JPY. The Tokyo-area inflationary data for October has surpassed expectations that revive a potential hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s upcoming monetary policy decision next Tuesday, 31 October. Watch the short-term key resistance of 167.60 on CHF/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY further potential up move reinforced by CHF safe haven status” published on 16 October 2023.
27-10-2023 06:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY edges lower, Tokyo Core CPI rises
Tokyo Core CPI climbs higher than expected US GDP jumps 4.9% The Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Strong Tokyo Core CPI puts the heat on BoJ Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate.
27-10-2023 05:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY breaks above 150, US GDP soars
Japanese yen falls below 150 line US GDP jumps 4.9% The Japanese yen is down slightly on Thursday, and the drop was enough to send the yen below the key 150 line. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.33, up 0.08%. Japanese yen breaches 150, is intervention next? The Japanese yen has been hovering just shy of the 150 line for two weeks and it seemed just a matter of time before it would break below this symbolic but critical level.
26-10-2023 13:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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