Dow Jones back below 47,000 as traders prepare for high-impact FOMC – US Stock Market Outlook & Levels

• US Stock Benchmarks struggle yet again, suffering from another rise in WTI
• The Middle East conflict is escalating and risk-sentiment backs down ahead of a quintessential FOMC meeting
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Yesterday's Stock-Crude de-correlation was short-lived, as today quickly came with another (bad) surprise.

Participants who were late to exit their positions ahead of this afternoon's key FOMC event woke up to a Stock Market bleeding once again from the escalations in the Middle East conflict.

Yesterday saw the celebrations of not only St Patrick's Day, but also the celebrations for the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) – While Iranian people celebrated, the IRGC multiplied attacks on their populations, and the rest of the Middle East.

With a large attack of cluster-warhead ballistic missiles of Israel on civilian targets and similarly on Gulf countries, the IAF and US army retaliated on Iran's largest Natural Gas production site – The South Pars Gas Facility, very close to Qatar (which supplies close to 80% of Iran's Nat Gas demand).

Energy commodities have hence rebounded from a previous correction – WTI is back closer to $100 from $92 overnight, and this isn't helping risk-taking the slightest.

With escalation risks now repriced, traders will have to watch whether Oil breaks $100 closely – the action is stalling around $98 and $99 for now.

A slow rise above would be trouble for Wall Street, as seen already in this morning's Stock Market drop – the Dow is leading to the downside (~ -1%) but other Indexes and assets aren't faring much better.

The FOMC meeting will prove to be very essential for upcoming inflation and rate expectations and SEP Projections. Communications, particularly during Powell's Press Conference will have to be tracked very closely.

If you haven't done so yet, go check out our FOMC preview!

Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s mid-session charts and key FOMC trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPI
• Technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC
• Gold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?

Healthcare, Non-Durables and Retail Trade are leading a red-session to the downside, as Investors rush to close positions ahead of this afternoon's high risk-event.

When Oil rises, Tech electronics and services are surprisingly holding strong – keep track of this development as the conflict continues.

The DJIA is holding its descending channel to the T, rejecting it and heading back towards its War lows (around 46,270).

It is the Index to watch for overall sentiment.

Today's FOMC event will be very key, particularly when looking at where we stand:

• If bulls reject the War lows, it will be a good sign for dip-buying
• If not, it's going to be more painful for Stocks ahead
  • Watch the session close and tomorrow's open!

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Key Pivot 47,000 to 47,200 (channel highs, bullish above)
• Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• 48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistance

Support Levels

• Current War lows Mini-Support 46,300 (Bearish Below)
• 46,000 +/- 100 pts November Support
• August highs 45,715
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq remains well within its 24,200 to 25,000 range, rejecting the psychological level in this morning's action.

Remaining below 25,000 after today could drag profit taking even further.

While it remains resilient in comparison to its peers, the Tech Index will be very sensitive to any wide move in the DJIA and Oil – Keep track of sentiment at today's close.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 2H 200-period MA (24,820)
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs – Bullish above)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)

Support Levels

• February Support 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)
• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support
• October and Overnight lows 23,972
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is also tightening its volatility after Monday's double bottom – But the action is still far from bullish.

The level to watch is 6,700 – Closing above it would be optimistic for Risk-sentiment.

On the contrary, closing below could bring further selling. The post-FOMC close will be very important.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,700 Key Level (bull above, bear below)
• Pivot 6,730 to 6,750
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800
• Past Week Resistance 6,820 to 6,840

Support Levels

• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support (testing)
• Overnight lows 6,606
• 6,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and Good luck for the FOMC!

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