Jonny Hart and Trader Nick discuss the day's events in which many central bankers gave their views on interest rates and oil and gold fell further.
08-11-2023 15:28 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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Fed, ECB, and BoE officials push back against rate cut talk
Investors not convinced by hawkish comments
UK100 edges lower after bearish rebound
We are continuing to see sluggish trade in equity markets on Wednesday, with investors battling hawkish commentary from central banks against downbeat economic expectations and speculation around rate cuts next year.
Even if central banks were of the view that rates could fall next year, it would be unrealistic to expect them to say so at this stage as
08-11-2023 15:05 GMT
by Craig Erlam
BoE's Bailey says no plan to cut rates
The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2287, down 0.10%.
08-11-2023 11:12 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone retail sales decline by 2.9%
The euro is down on Wednesday, after a two-day losing streak. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0675, down 0.23%.
Eurozone retail sales slide
The eurozone economy has been sputtering, so it's no wonder that consumers are in a sour mood and holding tight on the purse strings.
08-11-2023 06:59 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Inflation expectations ease to a two-year low
The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5924, down 0.19%.
NZ inflation expectations dip
New Zealand's inflation rate has been dropping, albeit slowly.
08-11-2023 05:49 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Daily MACD indicator has exhibited a potential medium-term trend change behaviour from bearish to bullish.
Recent price actions have shaped a minor bullish “Double Bottom” breakout and traded above the 20-day moving average.
Watch the short-term key support at 17,540.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Potential bullish tactical movements arise for Hong Kong & China equities due to USD weakness” published on 6 November 2023. Click here for a recap.
In the past two weeks, the pr
07-11-2023 23:52 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
RBA hikes and signals it's now data-dependent
Inflation remains a challenge despite already high rates
AUDUSD fails to breakout but momentum remains
The RBA today ended a series of four rate pauses and hiked by another 25 basis points.
The fact that it's needed to hike again after such a long time highlights how difficult central banks are finding it to get inflation under control and how much more difficult this last stage may prove than hoped.
07-11-2023 15:48 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Nasdaq outperforms other indices
Fed officials remain cautious
NAS100 breaks major technical resistance
Stocks traded a little mixed in Europe and the US on Tuesday, the one outlier being the Nasdaq which powered ahead with gains of more than 1%.
Lower bond yields enabled stocks to bounce back strongly in the second half of last week, aided by some less hawkish Fed commentary after the meeting and a softer jobs report.
But with yields now stabilizing again, equities have been running low on en
07-11-2023 15:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam
German Industrial Production declines
Fed's Powell will make public remarks on Wednesday
The euro is in negative territory for a second straight day. In Tuesday's North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0684, down 0.31%.
German Industrial Production declines 1.4%
Germany's industrial production slipped 1.4% m/m in September, following a downwardly revised -0.1% reading in August and well shy of the market consensus of -0.1%.
07-11-2023 12:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
New Zealand dollar sharply lower
RBA raises rates but Australian dollar slides
Chinese exports decline
The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.61%.
07-11-2023 11:08 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
RBA raises rates but eases tightening bias
Australian dollar slides over 1%
The Australian dollar has recorded massive losses on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6422, down 1.05%.
07-11-2023 07:24 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD Technical: RBA hike has already been priced in, minor corrective decline in progress
RBA hiked the official cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35% as expected.
Revised up slightly projected year-end 2024 Australia CPI inflation to be around 3.5% from 3.25% previously forecasted in August.
AUD/USD has declined by -64 pips intraday from yesterday, 6 November high of 0.6523.
Short-term momentum has turned bearish as depicted by the hourly RSI.
06-11-2023 23:24 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The prior four days of the rally have reached an extreme overbought condition.
Odds have increased for a minor pull-back scenario reinforced by the latest reading from the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator.
Watch the 32,760 key short-term pivotal resistance with an immediate support zone at 32,120/31,620.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Short-term positive momentum emerged ahead of BoJ” published on 30 October 2023. Click here for a recap.
In the past week, the Japan
06-11-2023 20:25 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss several key highlights and events for this week; a hawkish RBA resurgence and its implications on the AUD/USD, China's deflationary spiral risk, and all ears on Fed speak from Powell on the clarity on the pace and start of interest rate cuts in US.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/25yapp1dEbC1H5MVUWYhyM
06-11-2023 19:19 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Recovery stalling after a brief boost
Fed and jobs report provide optimism
Major technical resistance tested
It's been a relatively subdued start to trading on Monday, with stock markets struggling to maintain the momentum from the second half of last week.
Investors got everything they wanted from the Federal Reserve and the jobs report. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues adopted a slightly less hawkish tone for the meeting while maintaining its extremely cautious position on inflation and
06-11-2023 13:35 GMT
by Craig Erlam
UK Construction PMI continues to decline
British pound soars on soft US nonfarm payrolls
The British pound is steady at the start of the week. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2396, up 0.14%.
UK Construction PMI declines
UK Construction PMI declined for a second straight month in October, with a reading of 45.6.
06-11-2023 11:48 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD climbs after soft US nonfarm payrolls
RBA rate decision a 50/50 toss-up
The Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday, after huge gains on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6499, down 0.21%.
On Friday, the Aussie posted spectacular gains, rising 1.22% and hitting its highest level since August 10th.
06-11-2023 10:45 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in EURUSD in light of the Fed meeting and US jobs report.
06-11-2023 07:01 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Yen improves after soft US nonfarm payrolls
BOJ September minutes indicated members saw no need to tweak YCC
The Japanese yen is steady on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.66, up 0.20%.
US nonfarm payrolls cements pause in December
US nonfarm payrolls fell to 150,000 in October, down from a downwardly revised 297,000 in September and shy of the consensus estimate of 170,000.
06-11-2023 06:33 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The latest set of lacklustre US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI data for October has reinforced further US dollar weakness.
The narrowing of the 2-year US Treasury yield over the 2-year China sovereign bond has negated the current major downtrend of the offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar.
A further breakdown below 7.2675 on the USD/CNH may trigger a potential tactical multi-month up moves in China and Hong Kong equities.
In the past week, the medium-term uptrend of the US dollar
06-11-2023 00:16 GMT
by Kelvin Wong