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Euro rises as Fed holds rates German Manufacturing PMI declines The euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0628, up 0.56%. US dollar loses steam after Fed pause There wasn't any drama ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday.

02-11-2023 11:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound gets lift from Fed and BoE pauses

British pound posts sharp gains BoE and Fed pause for second straight time The British pound has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2216, up 0.54%. Bank of England pauses The Bank of England voted to maintain interest rates at 5.25% at today's meeting.

02-11-2023 09:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Medium-term bullish basing as BoE looms

Three key technical developments have suggested that the EUR/GBP cross pair has formed a potential medium-term bullish basing configuration since 23 August 2023 Watch the key short-term support at 0.8680. Immediate resistances stand at 0.8750 and 0.8820. The price actions of the EUR/GBP cross pair have started to trace out a medium-term bullish basing configuration since 23 August 2023 as we await the latest Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision later today. Clearance above 200-d

02-11-2023 04:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Powell struggles to deliver a hawkish hold

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss the Treasury's quarterly funding statement and breakdown the FOMC decision.

01-11-2023 18:30 GMT by Edward Moya

Fed React: USD/JPY softer after Fed fails to deliver hawkish hold

Back-to-back holds means the Fed is content keeping rates at a 22-year high Atlanta Fed GDP cuts Q4 GDP outlook from 2.3% to 1.2% Powell noted, “given how far we have come… the committee is proceeding carefully. The FOMC statement did not surprise many as the Fed kept rates on hold as they assess how tighter financial and credit conditions weigh on the economy. The Fed did not rule out a rate increase in the coming months , but swap contracts showed traders weren't convinced.

01-11-2023 16:14 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD extends losses, Fed meeting looms

Fed widely expected to hold rates The euro is in negative territory on Wednesday after posting a losing session a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0532, down 0.40%. Fed expected to pause rates The Federal Reserve makes its interest rate announcement later today and the markets have fully priced in rate pause, which would keep the benchmark rate at 5.25%-5.50%.

01-11-2023 13:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar steady, employment eases

New Zealand job growth declines US JOLTS Job Openings rise Fed widely expected to pause at today's meeting The New Zealand dollar is trading quietly on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5830, up 0.10%. New Zealand employment declines, unemployment rises New Zealand's labour market was expected to ease in the third quarter, but the decline in job growth was a surprise.

01-11-2023 12:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - Fed likely to stick to the (slightly less) hawkish script

All eyes on the Fed No forecasts so tone will be important EURUSD threatening to break lower ahead of the decision The Fed meeting should be quite straightforward, with policymakers having come out in force to soothe market fears of another rate hike from the central bank, claiming recent moves in bond markets may have done some of the job for them. This followed previous commentary that strongly hinted that another rate hike is likely, aligning with the dot plot from the September meeting, whi

01-11-2023 12:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

UK100 - Manufacturing PMIs remain weak but signs of promise in China

Manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction territory UK100 rebounds after key technical move lower Fib levels could be interesting We've had a selection of manufacturing PMIs this morning and, as we've come to expect, they weren't particularly surprising. The Caixin survey in China dipped back into contraction territory, in line with what we saw from the official reading yesterday, but there is some optimism that circumstances are gradually improving and will continue to do so, despite the obvio

01-11-2023 11:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD: Dollar wavers on slower pace of Treasury Refunding Sales and mixed labor data

10-Year Treasury Yield plunges 14.6 bps to 4.782% after Treasury slows pace of increase in quarterly sales of long-term debt ISM Manufacturing plunges from 49.0 to 46.7; New Orders plunged to a five-month low JOLTS Report: Job openings rise more than expected, suggesting labor demand is still strong Wall Street was surprised that the Treasury did not need to boost the pace of long end issuance. The Treasury might be worried with how high rates have skyrocketed with the long end of the curve. T

01-11-2023 10:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen stabilizes on intervention threat

Yen steadies after intervention warning Fed widely expected to pause at today's meeting The Japanese yen has steadied on Wednesday, following massive losses a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.19, down 0.34%. Tokyo warns of intervention after yen plunges It was Black Tuesday for the Japanese yen, which plunged 1.78% and fell as low as 151.71, its lowest level since October 2022.

01-11-2023 08:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Counter trend rebound at risk of exhaustion as key risk events loom

The ongoing rally from last Friday, 27 October low has taken on the form of an impending “bearish flag” formation. Coupled with a weak market breadth condition (less than 50% of Nasdaq 100 component stocks are trading above 200-day MA), the rally is likely to be a counter trend rebound within its short and medium-term downtrend phases. Watch the 14,590 key short-term resistance ahead of today’s FOMC decision and Apple’s earnings announcement on Thursday, 2 November. This is a follow-up analys

01-11-2023 01:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZ dollar slips on weak Chinese data, jobs data next

Chinese PMIs decelerate New Zealand labour market expected to cool The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5808, down 0.60%. October hasn't been kind to the New Zealand dollar, which has declined by 3%.

31-10-2023 12:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar dips after soft GDP

Canada's GDP flat in August The Canadian dollar is lower on Tuesday. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3866, up 0.29%. Canada's economy flatlined in August Canada's economy continues to show signs of cooling down.

31-10-2023 11:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - Eurozone inflation eases further than expected, US ECI a minor concern

Eurozone HICP inflation falls to 2.9% in October US ECI rises to 1.1% in Q3 EURUSD continues to look weak Inflation in the eurozone fell below 3% in October, with energy and food prices helping to push the headline number even lower than expected. While this is undoubtedly good news, the core number is probably a more accurate reflection of where things stand and the job the ECB still has in reining in inflation in a sustainable manner. Energy prices in particular are still volatile and base e

31-10-2023 11:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

A trick or a treat from the Bank of Japan: an indirect way of scrapping the YCC

BoJ has subtly removed the 1% “hard-capped” upper limit of the 10-year JGB yield which suggests an imminent end to YCC may come sooner than expected. Upbeat revised inflation forecasts for FY 2023 to FY 2025 gave a boost to the Japanese stock market where the Nikkei 225 has managed to stage a rebound from its key 200-day MA acting as a support at 30,490, The JPY has ignored the indirect mild hawkish guidance from BoJ, and the JPY is the weakest major currency (-1.10% intraday) so far against t

31-10-2023 07:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY - Yen plummets despite BoJ tweak

BoJ tweaks YCC, maintains 1% upper limit Japanese yen sinks The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Tuesday following the Bank of Japan policy meeting. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.65, up 1.06%. BoJ loosens grip on yield cap The Bank of Japan tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) policy on Tuesday, a small step that nevertheless sent the Japanese yen tumbling.

31-10-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD Technical: Potential residual push down within bullish reversal configuration

The price actions of AUD/USD have started to oscillate within an impending “Descending Wedge” bullish reversal configuration. The emergence of the “Descending Wedge” coupled with positive reading seen in the daily RSI momentum indicator indicates its current medium-term downtrend phase from the 3 February 2023 high may be coming to its tail-end. In the short term, the AUD/USD is at risk of staging a potential residual push down to retest the lower boundary of the “Descending Wedge” acting as su

31-10-2023 04:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD: Dollar enthusiasm may have peaked (Bloomberg's MLIV survey)

The Bloomberg's MLIV Pulse survey results from October 23-27th (528 respondents including me) October MLIV Pulse saw dollar enthusiasm eased from the 60% peak to 59%. The Nasdaq 100 will decline by as much as 10% this quarter, according to 45% 85% believe the so-called real neutral rate - which strips out the effect of inflation- has risen to around 100 basis points or higher, from estimate of about 50bps 10-year Treasury rose 4.3 bps to 4.879% At the beginning of the month, plenty of to

30-10-2023 15:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead: Fate of the dollar might not be determined by the Fed or NFP

Larger-than-expected Treasury issuance could lead to worsening budget deficit concerns Nikkei reported that BOJ is considering a further adjustment to its YCC framework FOMC expected to keep rates on hold and maintain a tightening bias

30-10-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya

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