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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Counter trend rebound at risk of exhaustion as key risk events loom

The ongoing rally from last Friday, 27 October low has taken on the form of an impending “bearish flag” formation. Coupled with a weak market breadth condition (less than 50% of Nasdaq 100 component stocks are trading above 200-day MA), the rally is likely to be a counter trend rebound within its short and medium-term downtrend phases. Watch the 14,590 key short-term resistance ahead of today’s FOMC decision and Apple’s earnings announcement on Thursday, 2 November. This is a follow-up analys

01-11-2023 01:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZ dollar slips on weak Chinese data, jobs data next

Chinese PMIs decelerate New Zealand labour market expected to cool The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5808, down 0.60%. October hasn't been kind to the New Zealand dollar, which has declined by 3%.

31-10-2023 12:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar dips after soft GDP

Canada's GDP flat in August The Canadian dollar is lower on Tuesday. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3866, up 0.29%. Canada's economy flatlined in August Canada's economy continues to show signs of cooling down.

31-10-2023 11:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - Eurozone inflation eases further than expected, US ECI a minor concern

Eurozone HICP inflation falls to 2.9% in October US ECI rises to 1.1% in Q3 EURUSD continues to look weak Inflation in the eurozone fell below 3% in October, with energy and food prices helping to push the headline number even lower than expected. While this is undoubtedly good news, the core number is probably a more accurate reflection of where things stand and the job the ECB still has in reining in inflation in a sustainable manner. Energy prices in particular are still volatile and base e

31-10-2023 11:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

A trick or a treat from the Bank of Japan: an indirect way of scrapping the YCC

BoJ has subtly removed the 1% “hard-capped” upper limit of the 10-year JGB yield which suggests an imminent end to YCC may come sooner than expected. Upbeat revised inflation forecasts for FY 2023 to FY 2025 gave a boost to the Japanese stock market where the Nikkei 225 has managed to stage a rebound from its key 200-day MA acting as a support at 30,490, The JPY has ignored the indirect mild hawkish guidance from BoJ, and the JPY is the weakest major currency (-1.10% intraday) so far against t

31-10-2023 07:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY - Yen plummets despite BoJ tweak

BoJ tweaks YCC, maintains 1% upper limit Japanese yen sinks The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Tuesday following the Bank of Japan policy meeting. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.65, up 1.06%. BoJ loosens grip on yield cap The Bank of Japan tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) policy on Tuesday, a small step that nevertheless sent the Japanese yen tumbling.

31-10-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD Technical: Potential residual push down within bullish reversal configuration

The price actions of AUD/USD have started to oscillate within an impending “Descending Wedge” bullish reversal configuration. The emergence of the “Descending Wedge” coupled with positive reading seen in the daily RSI momentum indicator indicates its current medium-term downtrend phase from the 3 February 2023 high may be coming to its tail-end. In the short term, the AUD/USD is at risk of staging a potential residual push down to retest the lower boundary of the “Descending Wedge” acting as su

31-10-2023 04:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD: Dollar enthusiasm may have peaked (Bloomberg's MLIV survey)

The Bloomberg's MLIV Pulse survey results from October 23-27th (528 respondents including me) October MLIV Pulse saw dollar enthusiasm eased from the 60% peak to 59%. The Nasdaq 100 will decline by as much as 10% this quarter, according to 45% 85% believe the so-called real neutral rate - which strips out the effect of inflation- has risen to around 100 basis points or higher, from estimate of about 50bps 10-year Treasury rose 4.3 bps to 4.879% At the beginning of the month, plenty of to

30-10-2023 15:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead: Fate of the dollar might not be determined by the Fed or NFP

Larger-than-expected Treasury issuance could lead to worsening budget deficit concerns Nikkei reported that BOJ is considering a further adjustment to its YCC framework FOMC expected to keep rates on hold and maintain a tightening bias

30-10-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya

NZ dollar rises, business confidence next

New Zealand dollar posts strong gains New Zealand Business Confidence expected to remain positive The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5828 up 0.53%. It has been a miserable October for the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen 2.78%.

30-10-2023 13:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro pushes higher as German inflation falls

German inflation falls to 3.8% Eurozone inflation expected to follow suit on Wednesday The euro is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0502, up 0.36%. German inflation slides Germany's consumer inflation dropped to 3.8% y/y in October, down sharply from 4.5% in September and below the market consensus of 4.0%.

30-10-2023 10:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY holds below 150 ahead of BoJ meeting

BoJ's holding 2-day meeting on Monday and Tuesday The Japanese yen is drifting on Monday after pushing the US dollar back below 150 on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.71, up 0.05%. Will BoJ tweak yield curve control? The Bank of Japan holds its two-day meeting beginning on Monday and there's plenty of anticipation around the meeting.

30-10-2023 08:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Bearish elements sighted at key resistance zone

Last Friday, 27 Oct price actions of the USD/JPY led to the formation of a weekly bearish reversal “Shooting Star” candlestick right at a key resistance zone of 150.30/150.90. Medium-term momentum has turned lacklustre as indicated by the bearish divergence condition seen in the daily RSI. Watch the potential downside trigger level of 149.30 (20-day moving average) on the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY bullish momentum seems to be fading” published on 24 Oct

30-10-2023 07:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nikkei 225: Short-term positive momentum emerged ahead of BoJ

Recent decline in the Nikkei 225 has managed to stall again at the key 200-day moving average with positive momentum seen in the hourly RSI indicator. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest quarterly outlook report will be closely watched; upbeat inflationary forecasts for FY 2023/2024 may signal a faster pace of monetary policy normalization. The TOPIX Banks and Financials sectors have started to price in such a “quickened pace” of policy normalization scenario in the past week. Watch the 30,490/30,32

30-10-2023 02:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - US Core PCE rises, Amazon delivers, Oil volatile

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss a plethora of US economic readings, Earnings from Amazon, Exxon and Chevron, and what is happening with oil prices.

27-10-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Surges to highest levels since October 2022; Commodity prices remain volatile on geopolitical headlines

Loonie lower as oil prices pare earlier gains Overnight Index Swaps eye BOC's next move as a rate cut in H2 2024 Fed funds futures see a 31% chance of a rate by the January 31st FOMC meeting The US dollar is rallying against the Canadian dollar as the odds of one more rate hike seem more likely with the Fed than with the BOC. After the BOC's October 25th meeting, traders appear convinced that the bank is done raising rates. Today's impressive US economic data showed core PCE came in a little

27-10-2023 13:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Nasdaq - Tech buoyed by Amazon earnings but stocks elsewhere struggle

Amazon results boost tech stocks US data probably doesn't change things ahead of the Fed NAS100 bounces back but major support broken this week It's been another tough week for European stock markets which are set to end it in the red once more amid concerns over the economy. Investors have been worried about the eurozone economy for some time and it would appear the ECB shares those concerns. While that may spare the bloc the added pressure of higher rates over the medium term, for now, the th

27-10-2023 11:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

Next week will be huge for the dollar: Treasury Refunding Statement, BOJ and Fed Decisions

Fed expected to keep rates on hold despite robust US GDP/personal consumption/spending data Monthly pace of core inflation ticked higher October's PCE reading however is expected to cool towards 3.2% Any chance of a dovish hold by the Fed went out the window after core PCE posted its largest gain in four months. Despite another round of robust US economic data (spending and PCE deflator), Treasury yields remain anchored as the Middle East conflict widens. In response to attacks made on US

27-10-2023 10:56 GMT by Edward Moya

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Hedging the Markets - Dovish ECB statements weigh on EUR/USD after rate pause

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses EURUSD in light of the decision by the ECB to pause the tightening cycle while offering commentary that many perceived as dovish.

27-10-2023 09:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie rises, US Core PCE Price Index eases

AUD/USD extends gains US Core PCE Prices ticks lower The Australian dollar is higher on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6350, up 0.42%. The RBA meets next on November 7th and we are seeing strong swings in RBA rate odds.

27-10-2023 08:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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