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US30 - Record highs in the Dow after the Fed overdelivers

Fed signals three rate cuts in 2024 ECB and BoE to announce decisions shortly Dow hits record highs after the Fed The most hotly anticipated central bank meeting of the year did not disappoint on Wednesday, with the Fed potentially delivering this year's Santa rally. I don't think many will have expected the Fed to go as far as it did in forecasting three rate cuts next year only three months after suggesting the tightening cycle is not over.

14-12-2023 05:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound rises after Fed meeting, BOE next

Bank of England expected to pause Federal Reserve projects three rate cuts in 2024 The British pound continues to move higher on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2648, up 0.24%. The US dollar took a tumble on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve gave the nod to rate cuts in 2024.

14-12-2023 04:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index: Fed’s dovish pivot provides a temporary breather

Short-term technical analysis suggests a potential countertrend rebound with intermediate resistance at 16,890. China’s top policymakers' reluctance to focus on making domestic demand revival a top priority for 2024 is likely to put a damper on positive animal spirits in the long term. A focus on making high-tech industrialization a top policy may trigger more headwinds for China and Hong Kong stock markets. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Entrench

14-12-2023 02:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Has the Fed just delivered a Santa rally?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Trader Nick to react to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and forecasts, and the significant impact they had on financial markets. They also preview the European Central Bank and Bank of England announcements on Thursday.

14-12-2023 02:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar edges higher ahead of jobs data

Australian dollar rebounds Australian job growth expected to decelerate Federal Reserve likely to pause for third straight time The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday, after three straight losing sessions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6584, up 0.38%. Will Powell push back against rate cut expectations? Today's Federal Reserve's rate announcement will almost certainly be a pause, which would mark the third consecutive time that the Fed held the be

13-12-2023 11:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - UK at risk of recession after a disappointing October GDP reading

UK economy shrinks 0.3% in October Markets price in three rate cuts from the BoE next year EURGBP spikes ahead of BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow The UK economy got the fourth quarter off to a bad start, contracting by 0.3% in October from the month before. The UK economy is struggling under the pressure of higher interest rates and it seems wet weather compounded those challenges for retailers, encouraging consumers to stay indoors. There's every chance spending bounces back in November an

13-12-2023 10:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Fireworks expected from the final Fed meeting of the year

Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged Forecasts and dot plot key as markets price in four rate cuts next year EURUSD hovers around 50 Fib The final Fed meeting of the year could also be the most eventful, with the central bank likely to acknowledge it's done with tightening and even signal rate cuts next year. The question is how many, with markets now pricing in four starting in May. The interest rate decision itself will almost certainly be straightforward - on hold - but with new ec

13-12-2023 08:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD slips ahead of GDP, Fed meeting

New Zealand GDP expected to decelerate US inflation ticks lower Fed widely expected to pause The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower in Wednesday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 0.61%. US inflation ticks lower, all eyes on Fed US inflation ticked lower in October as expected and the release was a non-event for the markets, which slightly reduced their rate-cut pricing.

13-12-2023 07:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound declines on soft GDP, FOMC looms

UK GDP contracts by 0.2% US inflation ticks lower Fed makes rate announcement later on Wednesday The British pound is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2522, down 0.32%. UK GDP contracts in October The UK posted soft data today and the British pound has reacted with losses. The GDP report for October indicated that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September.

13-12-2023 06:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100: It’s all about liquidity to maintain current bullish momentum

Nasdaq 100 recent bullish trend has moved in synch with a significant improvement in the net US liquidity since late October 2023. The major liquidity contributor has been a significant drawdown in the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility that negates the adverse effects of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Watch the 16,160 key short-term support ahead of Fed’s FOMC. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Impending corrective decline within major uptrend” publish

13-12-2023 06:24 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Core CPI rises ahead of FOMC

Talking Points US Core CPI impact on trader's interest rates expectations. EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical analysis 8-hour chart The US Consumer Price Index “US Core CPI” changes, a critical inflation gauge for the FED and traders were released this morning, the core CPI which excludes energy and food prices due to their volatile nature rose 0.3% for November 2023 after its previous October 2023 increase of 0.2%, as for the Core CPI y/y, it reflected an increase of 0.4%, although both were i

12-12-2023 13:03 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Australian dollar slips after US inflation ticks lower

US inflation eases to 3.1%, core rate unchanged at 4.0% Australia consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence slides The Australian dollar was up 0.35% prior to the US inflation release but has since reversed directions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6550, down 0.29%. US inflation ticks lower, core rate steady US inflation edged lower to 3.1% y/y in November, down from 3.2% in October and in line with the consensus estimate.

12-12-2023 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen rebounds, US inflation looms

Yen rebounds after two-day slide US inflation expected to drop to 3.0% The Japanese yen has ended a two-day slide, in which it dropped 1.4% against the US dollar. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.21, down 0.66%. Yen volatility continues The yen has been showing sharp swings since last Thursday, when signals from the Bank of Japan of a possible tightening in policy sent the yen soaring over 2% on Thursday.

12-12-2023 06:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD drifting ahead of US inflation

UK wage growth eases to 7.3%, lower than expected US inflation expected to fall to 3.0% The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2551, down 0.04%. UK wage growth falls to 7.3% Tuesday's UK employment report was notable for the decline in wage growth.

12-12-2023 04:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Germany 30 Technical: A potential minor corrective decline looms

Short-term RSI momentum indicator has flashed out bullish exhaustion condition after 6 consecutive weekly positive closes. At the risk of minor corrective decline sequence below 16,910 key short-term resistance. Intermediate supports rest at 16,590 and 16,440. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Germany 30 Technical: New intraday record high, short-term bullish trend intact” published on 6 December 2023. Click here for a recap. The Germany 30 Index (a proxy for the DAX futures)

12-12-2023 04:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY Technical: Potential JPY bullish pressure reasserts

The 2-day rebound seen in USD/JPY has reached 146.20/70 minor resistance zone. The movement of USD/JPY in the past month has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread. The short-term to medium-term trends of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread remain bearish. Watch the 146.70 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: Potential counter-trend rebound within medium-term downt

12-12-2023 00:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Big week on interest rates as Fed, BOE, ECB looms together with US CPI, Japan flash PMI

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic events that focus on the monetary policy decisions of key central banks; Fed, ECB, and BoE. Monetary policy officials may challenge the current aggressive dovish expectations on the trajectory of interest rate cuts for 2024. The primary focus will be on the release of the latest Fed's dot plot on Wednesday, 18 December together with the FOMC monetary policy meeting outcome; Fed funds interest rates futu

11-12-2023 21:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD extends losses, confidence data next

Australia releases consumer and business confidence on Tuesday The Australian dollar has posted slight losses in Monday trading. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6564, down 0.18%. The Aussie continues to show sharp swings and declined 1.50% last week.

11-12-2023 11:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - All eyes on the central banks and inflation data this week

Fed pivot may hang on tomorrow's CPI data Markets pricing in five rate cuts from ECB next year ahead of meeting EURUSD hangs around key support level A lackluster start to the week but there's so much to come over the next few days which could determine how markets end the year and start 2024. The US will be front and center this week even as events also unfold elsewhere. The Fed decision on Wednesday is unlikely to be controversial but the forecasts, dot plot and press conference that accompan

11-12-2023 10:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - Pound edges higher ahead of UK job data

UK to release employment report on Tuesday US nonfarm employment payrolls beats forecast and rise to 199,000 The British pound is showing little movement at the start of the week. In Monday's European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2576, up 0.22%. It's a busy week for UK releases which could translate into volatility from the British pound.

11-12-2023 06:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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