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Canadian dollar edges higher ahead of retail sales
Canada to release retail sales today, GDP on Friday US GDP expected to confirm estimate 5.2% gain The Canadian dollar is slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3324, down 0.19%. Canadian retail sales, GDP expected to improve It's a busy end of the week for Canadian releases, with retail sales today and the GDP on Friday.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential start of minor corrective decline
Bearish reversal candlestick formed yesterday, its steepest daily loss since 27 October 2023. Odds now have skewed towards a potential minor corrective decline sequence within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the 16,800 key short-term resistance. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100: It’s all about liquidity to maintain current bullish momentum” published on 13 December 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 10
by Kelvin Wong
UK inflation data sees markets price in more rate cuts from the BoE
The Bank of England may be much closer to cutting interest rates than it admitted last week when three policymakers thought it still appropriate to hike again. Inflation data from the UK this morning showed price growth has cooled faster again and much more so than the BoE anticipated in November when it released its last forecasts. The headline CPI slipped back to 3.9% while the core fell to 5.1%; both still far above target but on a rapid descent toward it.
by Craig Erlam
USD/CAD drifting, US consumer confidence jumps
US consumer confidence surges Canada's inflation rate remains at 3.1% higher than expected The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3325, down 0.06%. Canadian inflation stays sticky Canada's inflation rate was unchanged in November at 3.1% y/y, above the consensus estimate of 2.9%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro lower on German PPI decline
German PPI eases to 7.9% German GfK Consumer Confidence index improves slightly The euro has dropped in Wednesday's trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0939, down 0.38%. German PPI declines by 7.9% Germany's producer price index fell by 7.9% y/y in November, another sharp decline after the October reading of -11%.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD - Inflation surprise sends pound lower
UK inflation falls to 3.9%, lower than expected British pound declines The British pound has declined on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2658, down 0.58%. UK inflation surprises on the downside UK inflation was lower than expected in November and the surprising release has sent the British pound lower today.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nikkei 225 Technical: Potential major bullish breakout after pull-back
Yesterday’s swift rally has led to an overstretched upside momentum condition. At the risk of a minor corrective pull-back within its short-term uptrend phase. Watch the 33,150 key short-term support. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Bulls undeterred by Japanese government economic downgrade” published on 23 November 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the Japan 225 Index (proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have managed to hold above the 32,090 key me
by Kelvin Wong
Pound bounces back, CPI next
British pound surges on Tuesday UK inflation expected to fall to 4.4% The British pound is sharply higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2744, up 0.76%. UK inflation expected to ease  UK inflation continues to fall and a slight drop is expected in the November CPI on Wednesday.
by Kenneth Fisher
Canadian dollar drifting ahead of CPI release
Canada's inflation rate expected to fall to 2.9% Fed members push back against rate cut expectations The Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3382, down 0.13%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Market Insights Podcast - All eyes on the Bank of Japan's potential shift from negative interest rate
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic events that focus on the monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan which is only the sole central bank with a negative interest rate policy. Consensus is expecting no change on  BoJ's monetary policy setting on Tuesday, 18 December but forward guidance via its monetary policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference may indicate an imminent shift away from short-term negative interest rates in
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY Technical: JPY strength remains intact ahead of BoJ
Consensus is expecting no change to BoJ’s monetary policy, but its policy statement and Governor Ueda’s press conference may signal an imminent shift away from short-term negative interest rates. Mounting pressures from public and private sectors with Economy Minister Shindo attending today’s monetary policy decision meeting as a representative from the Cabinet Office. Technical analysis suggests further potential weakness in the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/JPY - Central banks look to spoil the party, BoJ eyed tonight
Policymakers determined to push back against market interest rate expectations Any surprises to come from the BoJ? EURJPY steadies around notable support zone Not the most thrilling start to the week but that's to be expected given the number of major events over the last few sessions and the absence of anything significant today. The second half of last week was quite the ride, with the Fed going further than many expected on rate cuts for next year, the ECB then pushing back stronger tha
by Craig Erlam
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes next
RBA minutes to be released Tuesday Fed Presidents Williams and Mester try to dampen rate cut fever The Australian dollar is trading quietly on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, down 0.11%.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY - Yen climbs to 4.5 month high, BOJ next
BoJ to make rate announcement on Tuesday Fed's Williams says no rate cuts planned The Japanese yen is lower at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.77, up 0.44%. The yen continues to power higher and surged 1.9% last week.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro stabilizes despite weak German business confidence
German business confidence weaker than expected The euro has started the week in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0914, up 0.18%. It was a week of sharp swings for the euro, which posted strong gains during the week but reversed directions on Friday and declined 0.88%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold: Deterioration in the US 10-year Treasury yield may support a bullish tone
An increase in dovish expectations on a rapid pace of Fed funds rate cuts projected for 2024 indicates a potential impending recession. An uptick in recession risk may see a further deterioration in the US 10-year Treasury real yield which reduces the opportunity costs for holding Spot Gold (XAU/USD). Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to trade back above its 20-day moving average. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: Extension of corrective decline ahead of FOMC” pub
by Kelvin Wong
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