OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US Jobs report, ISM survey and eurozone inflation data.
05-01-2024 17:18 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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US NFP 216,000 (170,000 expected, 173,000 in November revised down from 199,000)
Average hourly earnings (MoM) 0.4% (0.3% expected, 0.4% in November)
USDJPY rebounds off key Fibonacci level
The first US jobs report of the year was an early reminder to investors that things don't always go their way, despite the experience of the last couple of months.
Whether it was just exuberant festive cheer or something more, investors bounced into the end of 2023 full of hope that not only is the tightenin
05-01-2024 12:15 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen continues to slide
US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease to 170,000
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight day on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.14, up 0.36%.
The US dollar took a nasty spill in December against the major currencies.
05-01-2024 07:46 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone inflation rises, core rate dips
US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop to 177,000
The euro is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.33%.
Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9%
Eurozone inflation has been falling and dropped to 2.4% y/y in November, within striking distance of the 2% target.
05-01-2024 05:50 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall to 177,000
Canada's employment change projected to drop to 13,500
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday, but that could change in the North American session, when Canada and the US release the December employment reports. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3363, up 0.10%.
The Canadian dollar looked sharp in December, with gains of 2.27%.
05-01-2024 04:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The US dollar is the top performer against the JPY on a 5-day rolling basis (+3%).
A monthly US NFP jobs gain of between +240K to +260K may ignite another bout of US dollar rally.
Bullish momentum is supporting a potential extension of the ongoing countertrend rebound in USD/JPY.
Watch the next intermediate resistance at 146.70/147.45
05-01-2024 02:17 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The British pound has edged higher on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2698, up 0.27%.
UK Services PMI beats expectations
UK Services Final PMI was a bright note on Thursday.
04-01-2024 11:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses EURUSD on the back of the FOMC minutes and ahead of the first US jobs report of 2024.
04-01-2024 11:30 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Fed uncertain as timing of rate cuts
German CPI rises, but core rate falls
The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0950, up 0.26%.
Fed unclear on rate cut timing
The December policy meeting was highly significant as the Fed made a major pivot.
04-01-2024 09:01 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Australian dollar has steadied on Thursday and is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, up 0.02%. This follows a four-day slide in which the Aussie fell 1.6%.
04-01-2024 06:04 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC minutes, US Jolts data and preview Friday's jobs report.
03-01-2024 16:33 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Stocks pare gains at the start of the year
JOLTS data points to less heat in the labor market
Dow turns lower after a period of divergence
Stock markets are spending a second day in the red, continuing the softer start to the year as traders await minutes from the December FOMC meeting.
Given the remarkable end to 2023, it's not particularly surprising that we're seeing a little profit-taking at this stage.
03-01-2024 13:20 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Australian dollar is down for a fourth straight day and has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6719, down 0.62%.
The last week of the year was subdued as the data calendar was light.
03-01-2024 11:15 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound is steady on Wednesday after sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2632, up 0.11%.
UK Services PMI expected to accelerate
UK Services PMI will be released on Thursday.
03-01-2024 08:35 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro slips to two-week low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to rise slightly
FOMC minutes to be released later on Wednesday
Germany, Eurozone to release CPI on Thursday
The euro has steadied on Wednesday after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0932, down 0.08% and its lowest level since December 21.
The US dollar has been struggling in recent weeks but came flying out of the gates on Tuesday, the first trading day of the New Year.
03-01-2024 05:46 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 outperformance over the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) since the start of the major uptrend phase has started to dissipate.
A bullish rotation into the laggard, DJIA is considered a sign of a positive breadth development for the US stock market.
Watch the key short-term support at 37,470.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “US DJIA Technical: Bullish impulsive upmove remains intact” published on 29 November 2023. Click here for a recap.
Since our last analysis, t
03-01-2024 04:54 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Medium-term uptrend phase from 26 October 2023 remains intact.
6240 is the potential bullish inflection level.
Hourly RSI has flashed a bullish momentum breakout condition.
The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has been oscillating within a medium-term uptrend phase in place since 26 October 2023 low of 0.5774. So far, it has rallied by +596 pips/+10.3% to print a recent intraday high of 0.6370 on 28 December 2023.
There were two prior minor pullbacks seen within this ongoing medium-term uptrend; 3 November 2023
03-01-2024 00:31 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
An exceptional end to the year has left markets with a lot to live up to in 2024, with huge rate cuts and a soft landing now among the things investors have priced in.
The fantasy scenario for central bankers across the globe over the last couple of years is now a very real possibility but it's also far from guaranteed, despite how markets are now positioned. With so much now to live up to, investors may start asking themselves whether evaluations have become a little stretched.
Everyone will na
02-01-2024 17:48 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The British pound has started the New Year with sharp losses. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2626, down 0.82%.
UK Manufacturing PMI eases lower
The UK manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums.
02-01-2024 09:07 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro slips below 1.10 line
German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs contract
The euro is down sharply on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0969, down 0.62%.
02-01-2024 07:07 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher