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USD/JPY: Lingering below 151.40/95 major resistance zone
JPY weakness failed to materialize after Japan’s Q4 GDP came in way below expectations. Fear of looming BoJ’s intervention to put a halt to recent JPY weakness after MoF’s vice finance minister Masato Kanda’s warnings yesterday on the recent rapid moves in the FX markets ex-post hotter than expected US CPI data release. Short-term upside momentum of US dollar strength against JPY has started to ease. Flash Q4 2023 GDP data for Japan has indicated that the Japanese economy slipped into a technic
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CAD - Two-month high ahead of Thursday's US retail sales report
US inflation data boosts the dollar Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand USDCAD may remain rangebound The US dollar reached a two-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday on the back of some stronger economic data. The inflation figures from the US propelled the greenback higher as traders were forced to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
by Craig Erlam
Pound extends losses after UK inflation unchanged
The British pound continues to lose ground on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2546, down 0.35%. UK inflation holds steady at 4.0% The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected.
by Kenneth Fisher
US stock market bulls are facing a reality check (3 ominous signs to watch)
Goods-based inflationary pressures in the US may resurface in H2 2024 due to leading bullish momentum built-up in commodities. Persistent low correlation readings among S&P 500 constituents may trigger a spike in the VIX. The leading Nasdaq 100 has displayed bearish reversal elements. The US stock market continued to hit another milestone last week when the benchmark S&P 500 recorded 14 weekly gains in the past 15 weeks as of 9 February 2024, its longest winning streak since 1972. Overall, am
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/JPY - Eases from highs after weaker UK inflation data
UK inflation unchanged in January Markets expect BoE rate cut in Q2 GBPJPY pares gains after hitting 8.5 year high UK inflation data this morning will have been a welcome surprise for the Bank of England but there's still a long way to go. Unfavorable base effects were expected to lift headline and core CPI last month but in both cases, they stayed at the same level. A small win but a win nonetheless for the BoE. It was already expected to fall back to target in the second quarter before rebo
by Craig Erlam
Gold - Falls below $2,000 after resilient display this year
US inflation report hits gold Fewer Fed rate cuts priced into markets A loss of major technical support US inflation data finally took its toll on gold which, after holding strong above $2,000 this year, finally crumbled under the pressure of higher rates. How much worse it gets for the yellow metal will ultimately depend on how bad the data gets but, under the circumstances, we're certainly back in a "good news is bad news" scenario ahead of the retail sales data.
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD - Three-month low after US inflation disappointment
US inflation falls less than expected Fed rate cuts scaled back in markets EURUSD falls and momentum builds This is not the inflation report that the Federal Reserve wanted to see and markets have responded accordingly. Inflation in January was hotter than expected across the board. The headline and core monthly readings printed at 0.3% while the annual readings came in at 3.1% and 3.9%, respectively. While an improvement at the headline level, it's less so than markets were positioned for an
by Craig Erlam
EUR/GBP - A step in the right direction for the UK but BoE will remain cautious
UK wage growth slows to 5.8% (inc bonus) and 6.2% (exc bonus) in December CPI eyed tomorrow with UK expected to be confirmed as in recession on Thursday EURGBP sell-off accelerates in key support zone The UK continues to make progress toward being able to cut interest rates but as has been the case throughout the last couple of years, the process is not straightforward. The good news is that wage growth is slowing at a good pace after peaking last summer and near-term trends are very p
by Craig Erlam
GBP/JPY - Testing highs ahead of key UK economic data
UK wage growth key to BoE sustainably hitting inflation target GBPJPY struggling near recent highs Divergence points to loss of momentum The coming days offer several important data points for the UK that could help determine when the Bank of England starts cutting interest rates and, by extension, where the currency is headed in the coming months. The jobs report on Tuesday is always widely followed but with the unemployment component less reliable than normal, it's the average earnings that
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD eyes Bailey, jobs report
The British pound is showing limited movement at the start of the week. In Monday's North American session, GBP/USD is unchanged at 1.2629. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a public event later today and the markets will be listening carefully, looking for hints about the BoE's future rate path.
by Kenneth Fisher
NZD/USD dips despite hawkish RBNZ
RBA's Orr says high rates still needed New Zealand releases inflation Expectations on Tuesday The New Zealand dollar is lower on Monday. In  the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6127, down 0.35%.
by Kenneth Fisher
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