OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest data from the US and UK, and preview the week ahead.
16-02-2024 13:14 GMT
by Craig Erlam
All news & analysis
Stay up-to-date with the latest market developments. Discover breaking news, in-depth analysis, expert commentary, and market insights that affects all asset classes, from forex and commodities to stocks and indices. MarketPulse news will help you stay ahead so you can make informed trading decisions.
Is March a live meeting for the Fed? Inflation data in focus as markets eye July BoC rate cut.
FOMC minutes could tell us how close they are to rate cuts.
16-02-2024 12:59 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Is a March rate cut from the ECB still possible? UK surveys eyed as the economy falls into recession.
16-02-2024 10:39 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110, up 0.08%.
Orr pushes back against rate cut expectations
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has made inflation its top priority and the Bank’s steep rate-hiking cycle has brought inflation lower.
16-02-2024 08:02 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2578, down 0.17%.
UK retail sales rebound with 3.4% gain
UK retail sales were more than impressive, surging 3.4% m/m in January.
16-02-2024 05:18 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Nikkei 225 has continued its bullish momentum despite a technical recession in the Japanese economy.
Current price action is just 0.9% away from its 38,957 all-time high printed in December 1989.
Medium-term momentum is overbought but no clear signs of bullish trend exhaustion.
Watch the 38,260 key short-term support.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Major bullish breakout from 7-month range with further potential upside in store” published on 10 January 2024. Clic
16-02-2024 01:51 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Japanese yen has improved on Thursday, despite a disappointing GDP report. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.12, down 0.31%.
15-02-2024 12:41 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US retail sales below expectations at -0.8% in January
November and December also revised lower
USDCAD falls after briefly breaching resistance
There was a big data drop from the US ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street today, with one report in particular getting people's attention.
The retail sales data for January were poor. Not only that, they were much poorer than already low expectations.
15-02-2024 10:32 GMT
by Craig Erlam
EIA reported inventories rose by 12 million barrels last week
Volatility remains amid uncertainty
Inverse head and shoulders forms
Oil prices remain very volatile and last week's unexpected and substantial inventory build, reported by EIA, further added to that.
The price fell sharply after the data and continued earlier today before recouping those losses to trade flat on the session.
15-02-2024 08:33 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The markets await the Empire State Manufacturing Index this morning; the index is based on surveying a monthly sample of the State’s manufacturing executives and is handled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index is considered a leading indicator; a reading above zero reflects expansion, and below zero reflects contraction.
15-02-2024 07:51 GMT
by Moheb Hanna
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6496, up 0.07%.
Australian job growth flatlines
Australia’s employment report was softer than expected, but the Australian dollar didn’t show much reaction.
15-02-2024 06:31 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK GDP -0.3% in Q4 and -0.1% in December
BoE not concerned about recession
GBPUSD momentum fading near February lows?
The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year after GDP figures for the fourth quarter showed a steeper contraction than expected.
While a recession was expected ahead of the release, the fourth quarter number was slightly worse despite December performing better than anticipated.
15-02-2024 04:58 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the UK and US inflation data, and preview the upcoming UK GDP figures.
15-02-2024 03:30 GMT
by Craig Erlam
JPY weakness failed to materialize after Japan’s Q4 GDP came in way below expectations.
Fear of looming BoJ’s intervention to put a halt to recent JPY weakness after MoF’s vice finance minister Masato Kanda’s warnings yesterday on the recent rapid moves in the FX markets ex-post hotter than expected US CPI data release.
Short-term upside momentum of US dollar strength against JPY has started to ease.
Flash Q4 2023 GDP data for Japan has indicated that the Japanese economy slipped into a technic
15-02-2024 01:16 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Aussie rebounds, employment data looms
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, up 0.54%.
14-02-2024 13:33 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US inflation data boosts the dollar
Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand
USDCAD may remain rangebound
The US dollar reached a two-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday on the back of some stronger economic data.
The inflation figures from the US propelled the greenback higher as traders were forced to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
14-02-2024 09:00 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The British pound continues to lose ground on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2546, down 0.35%.
UK inflation holds steady at 4.0%
The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected.
14-02-2024 08:55 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Goods-based inflationary pressures in the US may resurface in H2 2024 due to leading bullish momentum built-up in commodities.
Persistent low correlation readings among S&P 500 constituents may trigger a spike in the VIX.
The leading Nasdaq 100 has displayed bearish reversal elements.
The US stock market continued to hit another milestone last week when the benchmark S&P 500 recorded 14 weekly gains in the past 15 weeks as of 9 February 2024, its longest winning streak since 1972.
Overall, am
14-02-2024 07:15 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
UK inflation unchanged in January
Markets expect BoE rate cut in Q2
GBPJPY pares gains after hitting 8.5 year high
UK inflation data this morning will have been a welcome surprise for the Bank of England but there's still a long way to go.
Unfavorable base effects were expected to lift headline and core CPI last month but in both cases, they stayed at the same level. A small win but a win nonetheless for the BoE.
It was already expected to fall back to target in the second quarter before rebo
14-02-2024 06:42 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US inflation report hits gold
Fewer Fed rate cuts priced into markets
A loss of major technical support
US inflation data finally took its toll on gold which, after holding strong above $2,000 this year, finally crumbled under the pressure of higher rates.
How much worse it gets for the yellow metal will ultimately depend on how bad the data gets but, under the circumstances, we're certainly back in a "good news is bad news" scenario ahead of the retail sales data.
13-02-2024 13:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam