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RBNZ’s Orr – Inflation expectations still too high
The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110, up 0.08%. Orr pushes back against rate cut expectations The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has made inflation its top priority and the Bank’s steep rate-hiking cycle has brought inflation lower.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD yawns as UK retail sales soar
The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2578, down 0.17%. UK retail sales rebound with 3.4% gain UK retail sales were more than impressive, surging 3.4% m/m in January.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nikkei 225 Technical: Eyeing a potential new all-time high
Nikkei 225 has continued its bullish momentum despite a technical recession in the Japanese economy. Current price action is just 0.9% away from its 38,957 all-time high printed in December 1989. Medium-term momentum is overbought but no clear signs of bullish trend exhaustion. Watch the 38,260 key short-term support. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Major bullish breakout from 7-month range with further potential upside in store” published on 10 January 2024. Clic
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CAD - Rally stalls again after weaker US retail sales data
US retail sales below expectations at -0.8% in January November and December also revised lower USDCAD falls after briefly breaching resistance There was a big data drop from the US ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street today, with one report in particular getting people's attention. The retail sales data for January were poor. Not only that, they were much poorer than already low expectations.
by Craig Erlam
Brent Crude - Oil gives back gains after inventory data
EIA reported inventories rose by 12 million barrels last week Volatility remains amid uncertainty Inverse head and shoulders forms Oil prices remain very volatile and last week's unexpected and substantial inventory build, reported by EIA, further added to that. The price fell sharply after the data and continued earlier today before recouping those losses to trade flat on the session.
by Craig Erlam
Empire State Manufacturing Index - EURUSD Technical Analysis Overview
The markets await the Empire State Manufacturing Index this morning; the index is based on surveying a monthly sample of the State’s manufacturing executives and is handled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index is considered a leading indicator; a reading above zero reflects expansion, and below zero reflects contraction.
by Moheb Hanna
Australian dollar shrugs after weak jobs report
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6496, up 0.07%. Australian job growth flatlines Australia’s employment report was softer than expected, but the Australian dollar didn’t show much reaction.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD - UK in recession but that's unlikely to sway the BoE yet
UK GDP -0.3% in Q4 and -0.1% in December BoE not concerned about recession GBPUSD momentum fading near February lows? The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year after GDP figures for the fourth quarter showed a steeper contraction than expected. While a recession was expected ahead of the release, the fourth quarter number was slightly worse despite December performing better than anticipated.
by Craig Erlam
USD/JPY: Lingering below 151.40/95 major resistance zone
JPY weakness failed to materialize after Japan’s Q4 GDP came in way below expectations. Fear of looming BoJ’s intervention to put a halt to recent JPY weakness after MoF’s vice finance minister Masato Kanda’s warnings yesterday on the recent rapid moves in the FX markets ex-post hotter than expected US CPI data release. Short-term upside momentum of US dollar strength against JPY has started to ease. Flash Q4 2023 GDP data for Japan has indicated that the Japanese economy slipped into a technic
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CAD - Two-month high ahead of Thursday's US retail sales report
US inflation data boosts the dollar Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand USDCAD may remain rangebound The US dollar reached a two-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday on the back of some stronger economic data. The inflation figures from the US propelled the greenback higher as traders were forced to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
by Craig Erlam
Pound extends losses after UK inflation unchanged
The British pound continues to lose ground on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2546, down 0.35%. UK inflation holds steady at 4.0% The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected.
by Kenneth Fisher
US stock market bulls are facing a reality check (3 ominous signs to watch)
Goods-based inflationary pressures in the US may resurface in H2 2024 due to leading bullish momentum built-up in commodities. Persistent low correlation readings among S&P 500 constituents may trigger a spike in the VIX. The leading Nasdaq 100 has displayed bearish reversal elements. The US stock market continued to hit another milestone last week when the benchmark S&P 500 recorded 14 weekly gains in the past 15 weeks as of 9 February 2024, its longest winning streak since 1972. Overall, am
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/JPY - Eases from highs after weaker UK inflation data
UK inflation unchanged in January Markets expect BoE rate cut in Q2 GBPJPY pares gains after hitting 8.5 year high UK inflation data this morning will have been a welcome surprise for the Bank of England but there's still a long way to go. Unfavorable base effects were expected to lift headline and core CPI last month but in both cases, they stayed at the same level. A small win but a win nonetheless for the BoE. It was already expected to fall back to target in the second quarter before rebo
by Craig Erlam
Gold - Falls below $2,000 after resilient display this year
US inflation report hits gold Fewer Fed rate cuts priced into markets A loss of major technical support US inflation data finally took its toll on gold which, after holding strong above $2,000 this year, finally crumbled under the pressure of higher rates. How much worse it gets for the yellow metal will ultimately depend on how bad the data gets but, under the circumstances, we're certainly back in a "good news is bad news" scenario ahead of the retail sales data.
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD - Three-month low after US inflation disappointment
US inflation falls less than expected Fed rate cuts scaled back in markets EURUSD falls and momentum builds This is not the inflation report that the Federal Reserve wanted to see and markets have responded accordingly. Inflation in January was hotter than expected across the board. The headline and core monthly readings printed at 0.3% while the annual readings came in at 3.1% and 3.9%, respectively. While an improvement at the headline level, it's less so than markets were positioned for an
by Craig Erlam
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