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EUR/CHF Technical: Potential bullish impulsive moves resume
The potential upcoming interest cut on 6 June from the ECB is likely to have been fully priced in by the markets. The forward guidance by ECB officials on the timing of subsequent rate cuts is murky and the consensus forecasts for the current Eurozone core inflation deceleration trend may have plateaued in May. These factors are likely to support a further potential widening of the premium seen in the Eurozone/Switzerland 2-year sovereign bond yield spread. Watch the key medium-term support of 0
27-05-2024 12:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY steady as BoJ’s Ueda urges caution
The Japanese yen has been drifting since late last week and is calm on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.85, down 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Ueda: BoJ will proceed with caution The Bank of Japan has been outlier, as it looks to raise interest rates at a time when other major central banks are aiming to cut rates as inflation falls.
27-05-2024 07:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD steady despite plunge in retail sales
The British pound continues to have a quiet week in which it has stayed close to the 1.27 line. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2715, up 0.13% at the time of writing in the European session. UK retail sales tumbles 2.3% UK retail spending slumped in April with a 2.3% m/m decline.
24-05-2024 08:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY: JPY weakness is back in vogue at least for the short-term
The 10-year JGB yield has continued to push higher to 1% together with 3-month and 6-month overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates in Japan at 0.12% to 0.17% The JPY has failed to strengthen despite the bullish movements in JGB yields and OIS rates. Broad-based US dollar strength and the deceleration in the lagging core-core CPI inflation trend are the main drivers of short-term JPY weakness. Watch the key short-term support of 155.90 on the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report,
24-05-2024 02:17 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY steady as Japanese PMIs mixed
The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.70, down 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s PMIs for April were a mixed bag and the yen didn’t show much reaction.
23-05-2024 09:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro edges lower ahead of FOMC minutes
The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. EUR/USD is down 0.17%, trading at 1.0836 in the North American session at the time of writing. Will Fed minutes be hawkish? It has been a light data calendar in the US, with no tier-1 events until Thursday.
22-05-2024 11:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD shrugs as UK inflation higher than expected
The British pound edged higher earlier today but has pared most of those gains. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2703, up 0.06% early in the North American session. UK inflation declines less than expected UK inflation fell sharply in April, falling to 2.3% y/y.
22-05-2024 08:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar edges lower as core inflation slides
The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday. USD/CAD is up 0.24%, trading at 1.3655 in the North American session at the time of writing. Canada’s inflation rate sinks to 1.6% Canada's headline inflation continued to fall in April, dropping to 2.7% y/y, down from 2.9% in March and matching the market estimate.
21-05-2024 10:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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NZD/USD steady ahead of RBNZ rate announcement
The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday. NZD/USD is down 0.06%, trading at 0.6102 in the European session at the time of writing. RBNZ expected to maintain cash rate The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shown it can be patient, having held the cash rate at 4.35% for six straight times.
21-05-2024 07:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Australian dollar shrugs after RBA minutes
The Australian dollar edged lower but recovered in the Asian session. AUD/USD is showing little movement in the European session, trading at 0.6660. RBA minutes: members discussed rate hike The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting earlier this month indicated that members discussed the possibility of a rate hike before deciding to hold the cash rate at 4.35% for a fourth consecutive time.
21-05-2024 04:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Market Insights Podcast - Gold hit another fresh record high, UK and Japan CPI, Fed minutes on the radar for this week
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. Firstly, at the start of a brand new week, Gold (XAU/USD)  maintained its bullish tone and rocketed to a fresh record on Monday, 20 May, printing an intraday high of US$2,450 on the backdrop of a potential uptick in geopolitical risk premium arising in the Middle East due to the death of Iranian President Raisi in a helicopter crash.
20-05-2024 22:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY higher as Japan’s services slips
The Japanese yen is lower on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.12, up 0.31% in the North American session at the time of writing. Japanese services activity declines Japan’s tertiary industry activity for March, a measure of activity in the services sector, posted its first decline this year.
20-05-2024 09:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY: Conflicting factors at play, sideways for now in the short-term
The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market is now anticipating a potential Q2 recovery in the Japanese economy as the 2-year and 10-year JGB yields have rallied to more than a decade high. The 10-year and 20-year yield premiums of US Treasuries over JGBs have shrunk in the past two weeks which in turn supports a potential bearish reversal in USD/JPY. However, technical analysis suggests an ongoing potential medium-term uptrend in USD/JPY. In the short term, watch these two key levels of 157.00 an
20-05-2024 07:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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