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Powell testimony soothes markets Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, testifying at his confirmation hearing on the Hill, soothed markets overnight in a performance worthy of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Mr Powell noted that the Fed could hike rates to rein in inflation, intended to start the balance sheet run-off sooner rather than later, but also said inflationary pressures would peak mid-year.

12-01-2022 04:52 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 281)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. This morning they discussed the market reaction to Jerome Powell's testimony and today's US CPI data.

12-01-2022 03:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: Markets embrace lengthy Balance Sheet runoff debate, Fed readies March hike

US stocks went on a rollercoaster ride after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony signaled that the Fed “in all likelihood” will be normalizing policy, while allowing the balance-sheet runoff later this year. The Fed sees inflation lasting till mid-2022 and that is probably when they will let the balance sheet decline. Wall Street now has a better understanding on how the Fed will normalize policy and with the balance runoff likely taking up to four meetings.

11-01-2022 14:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Commodities and Cryptos: Oil rallies Gold Shines, Bitcoin higher

Oil Crude prices rallied alongside risky assets after Fed Chair Powell signaled a lengthy debate over the balance sheet runoff. A long road to normal means the economy will still see a lot of support over the first half of the year and that is good news for crude prices. Oil prices seem poised to trade between $80 and $100 a barrel as the global demand outlook still looks upbeat as most major economies are getting closer to the other side of the omicron fence. NY Gov Hochul said, COVID rates

11-01-2022 14:11 GMT by Edward Moya

NAS100 - Correction complete?

Or further to go? It's been a shaky start to the new year, with interest rate anxieties dragging on sentiment and hitting the NAS100 particularly hard. The index fell more than 8% over the last week, breaking through key support in the process which could have led to a much deeper correction. Instead, the index bounced strongly in the final hours of trading on Monday and failed to close below the rising channel. While a deeper correction could still be on the cards, the false breakout - as

11-01-2022 12:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen dips, inflation expectations rise

After several days of gains, the Japanese yen has reversed directions and is in negative territory. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 115.48, up 0.23% on the day. Japanese consumers expect higher inflation The Japanese government is committed to an ultra-easy monetary policy, but it will need stronger consumer spending if it hopes to kickstart the economy.

11-01-2022 10:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds, gold holds above 1800

Oil eyes Autumn highs Oil prices are rebounding higher again on Tuesday, up more than 1%, and with sights seemingly set on the late autumn highs. We saw some heat come out of the market over the last couple of days but pullbacks were always likely to be limited given the broader dynamics. Of course, omicron offers some demand uncertainty over the coming months but the market is tight as OPEC+ slowly turns the taps back on.

11-01-2022 10:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

The start of the fightback?

Stock markets are enjoying some reprieve after a rocky start to the week and investors will be hoping earnings season provides more cause for optimism in the weeks ahead. The January blues are alive and well and with markets now eyeing up the possibility of four rate hikes this year, we may be approaching peak fear just in time for earnings season. We've quickly pivoted from the transitory inflation narrative to aggressive tightening including a combination of accelerated tapering, multiple rat

11-01-2022 09:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie yawns after retail sales jump

The Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week and is unchanged in Tuesday trade. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7170. Australia's retail sales soar Australian consumers opened their purse strings in November, as retail sales jumped 7.3%, well above the consensus of 3.6%.

11-01-2022 09:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro calm, warning from Bundesbank

It continues to be quiet week for the euro, which is trading around 1.1340 in the European session. The currency markets are nervous and continue to be marked by range trading.

11-01-2022 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil consolidates, gold rallies

Oil consolidates Oil prices eased slightly overnight in corrective price action consistent with a consolidation of oil’s recent impressive price gains. Brent crude fell by 1.0% to USD 81.00, rising to USD 81.30 a barrel in Asia.

11-01-2022 06:17 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Currency markets nervously range-trade

US dollar looking for direction The US dollar rallied sharply overnight as US equities headed south, only to give back most of those gains towards the end of the New York session as the Nasdaq recovered. US bond markets provided no direction with yields almost unchanged.

11-01-2022 06:07 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Another mixed day for Asian equities

Asian markets mixed Wall Street had a schizophrenic session overnight, falling hard for most of the day as markets continued winding themselves up that the Federal Reserve could tighten by as early as March, amid escalating inflation concerns. It is very much a short-term phenomenon though, as US inflation break evens all the way from 1 to 10 years are still pricing in a return to a 2.0% inflation nirvana.

11-01-2022 05:16 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Rate hike frenzy continues

It was another choppy session overnight in equity and currency markets, followed today, by another cautious Asian session on equity markets, with forex markets marching on the spot. In other words, business as usual for the past few days. Rate hike fever rises after US job reports Federal Reserve rate hike nerves continue to grow tauter after Friday’s fall in unemployment and rise in employment cost indexes.

11-01-2022 05:01 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

NAS100 - Vulnerable ahead of earnings season

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the NAS100 as it breaks through key support.

10-01-2022 15:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Cryptos: Oil softer as supply returns, Gold steady

Oil Crude prices are lower after Libya’s largest oil field resumed production, Kazakhstan’s TCO oilfields are back to normal levels, and as China's zero-COVID tolerance will lead to new restrictions. The oil market will likely remain very tight as the world learns to live with COVID. Travel bans will continue to be lifted as the focus will go to testing and that should do wonders for international travel once test makers have a better handle of the situation. Considering how much oil prices

10-01-2022 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: Stocks slump as inflation fears drive Fed rate hike expectations, Dollar follows Treasury yields

US stocks are sliding as surging pricing pressures have the Fed on a fast-track to get rates back to neutral. Every trader over the weekend read the Goldman note that eyed four Fed rates hikes and balance sheet runoff in July, if not sooner. Surging yields are kryptonite for many tech stocks and that theme won't change until after we get past the first couple rate hikes. Today is all about risk aversion as fears grow that financial markets completely misread the Fed's scramble to battle inflat

10-01-2022 14:23 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 280)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week's market news with Jonny Hart. This morning they discussed the markets, week ahead, and earnings season.

10-01-2022 13:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices ease, gold trading sideways

Oil eases near highs Oil prices are easing again on Monday after the rally lost steam around the October highs late last week. Supply issues in Kazakhstan and Libya contributed to the latter stage of the rally, with the bulk since late December coming from more promising omicron data that indicates the economic impact of the new variant will be more subdued than feared. While prices may be pulling back, aided perhaps by the broader shift in risk appetite in the markets, the fundamentals remain

10-01-2022 12:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Sell-off gathers momentum

It was a fairly timid start to the week but the sell-off accelerated around the open on Wall Street, pushing Europe well into negative territory at the end of the day. Omicron relief has been replaced by interest rate angst over the past week and that may take some time to pass. We're seeing data from the US at the moment that appears to show supply issues abating, which should allay temporary inflation pressures, but more permanent pressures - like wages rising - which will concern central ban

10-01-2022 12:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

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