The New Zealand dollar has edged higher on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6855, up 0.24% on the day.
17-03-2022 07:26 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil prices held steady overnight, led by the perception of diminishing Ukraine risks and a positive meeting between the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. The platitudes handed out to Boris Johnson in Riyadh conveniently overlook the fact that the Saudis are committed to OPEC+ and are not able to unilaterally boost production within that framework.
17-03-2022 06:28 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
US dollar falls on China, Ukraine
In behaviour reminiscent of equity markets overnight, the US dollar staged a full retreat as stimulus hopes out of China, and an apparent Ukraine agreement inching closer to reality saw a mass exodus out of haven positioning and into full risk-seeking mode. The dollar index fell 0.62% to 98.40 where it remains this morning.
17-03-2022 05:35 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Positive vibes out of Ukraine boost equities
Equity markets ignored the warning signs from the bond market post-FOMC overnight, piling back into long positions after the FOMC held no surprises in its mind. Assisting things along were positive signals around Ukrainian talks and the huge rally in China stocks that also lifted their ADRs to huge gains in New York.
17-03-2022 04:09 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
So much information has been thrown at financial markets over the last 24 hours, it is quite a challenge to unpick it all and draw conclusions. Sitting here in front of my computer digesting it all has left me feeling like I have had a solid hour (or two), of “communicating with Mrs Halley.
17-03-2022 04:01 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
US stocks went on a rollercoaster ride after a hawkish FOMC statement initially sent risky assets lower, but then turned positive after Fed Chair Powell tentatively convinced markets they will not be too late with fighting inflation. Much of today went as expected with the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points and addressing how the war in Ukraine is driving additional inflationary pressures.
The Fed’s 2022 forecast for inflation was raised from 2.6% to 4.3%.
16-03-2022 15:49 GMT
by Edward Moya
The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains for a second straight day. NZD/USD is trading just above the 0.68 line in the North American session.
All eyes on Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is poised to raise rates by 0.25% at today's meeting.
16-03-2022 13:17 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil slips further below USD 100
Oil prices are continuing to fall in the middle of the week as progress in talks between Ukraine and Russia see crude premiums being eroded. Whether that's premature or not, we'll soon see, especially with disruptions already being reported in recent weeks.
While an end to the fighting will reduce the cloud of uncertainty for the global economy, it will not put an end to the sanctions that have already been imposed on Russia, or any that will follow.
16-03-2022 12:58 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Equity markets are continuing to bounce back strongly on Wednesday, as talks between Ukraine and Russia appear to be nearing a conclusion that could put an end to the invasion.
Given how the events have unfolded over the last month, I remain cautiously optimistic at best about a deal. Especially when you consider that Russian attacks on Ukraine are continuing during the negotiations.
16-03-2022 12:51 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Canadian dollar has extended its gains into a second day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2697, down 0.52% on the day.
Canada's inflation accelerates
Canada's inflation rate shows no signs of slowing down.
16-03-2022 10:16 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
China eases Covid restrictions
Asian stock markets are rallying today, especially under-pressure Chinese ones, as the price of oil fell overnight, and China eased isolation conditions domestically. China covid cases have fallen to around 3,000, and, most significantly, the government has shortened post-infection isolation requirements.
Overnight, US markets gorged themselves on lower oil prices as readily as they have convinced themselves that Ukraine-Russia talks will bear fruit recently. The
16-03-2022 05:53 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil rallies in Asia
Oil prices slumped in overnight trading, Brent crude tumbling 6.85% to USD 98.70 a barrel, and WTI plummeting 7.0% to USD 95.10 a barrel. Oil markets continued to correct from the mayhem of last week, helped along by Iran nuclear deal hopes, fears over slower China growth, and persistent hopes of a Ukraine-Russia agreement to end the conflict.
There is a lot of hope, and not much sign of reality in that reasoning, and oil prices have rallied once again in Asia.
16-03-2022 05:48 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Dollar steady ahead of FOMC meeting
Currency markets are refusing to buy into the Ukraine talks or a more dovish FOMC story, with the US dollar maintaining its recent gains versus the majors and continuing to grind higher versus key Asian currencies. The dollar index was almost unchanged at 99.01 overnight, although it traded in a choppy 40 point range, easing only slightly to 98.89 in Asia today.
16-03-2022 05:32 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil retreat continues
Oil prices continued falling overnight, powering the equity relief rally on Wall Street which has extended into Asia this morning. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell into negative territory overnight, and US PPI came in ever so slightly under expectations.
16-03-2022 04:41 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Covid, Ukraine weigh on oil
The unwind of the oil trade is an easy one as a few reasons sent prices lower: China’s Covid surge has worsened as more lockdowns occur, expectations of a long Russia-Ukraine war has decreased as Eastern European leaders show unequivocal support for Ukraine’s independence, countries like India have bought Russian oil at a heavy discount, and manufacturing activity in the Empire State dropped to negative territory and the lowest levels since early in the pandemic.
Su
15-03-2022 13:29 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks are getting a boost from a trifecta of reasons: economic and political pressure grow for a Russian ceasefire, oil prices plunge, and after both a softer-than-expected PPI report and a disappointing Empire survey supports the idea that the Fed won’t have to be aggressive with tightening policy over the next few meetings. The S&P 500 index was getting dangerously close to the lows seen at the initial stock market selloff when Russia invaded Ukraine just over two weeks ago.
15-03-2022 13:24 GMT
by Edward Moya
Can it continue to push higher?
It's been a highly volatile period in the markets, with equities coming under severe pressure as a result of high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions against it that followed.
The UK100 has shown more resilience than its European peers during that time, in part as a result of the UK having fewer trade ties - particularly oil and gas - and due to the weight of commodity stocks within the index. Soaring commodity prices are naturally bene
15-03-2022 12:43 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The euro has gained ground for a second straight day and broke above the symbolic 1.10 line before retreating.
German economic sentiment slides
German ZEW Economic Sentiment took a plunge in March, falling from 54.3 to -39.3. The massive decline of 93.6 points was the sharpest on record.
15-03-2022 12:35 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
European equity markets have recovered most of their earlier losses but remain a little lower on the day.
Stocks are coming off two positive sessions which probably contributed to the downside we saw earlier on despite there being no real negative developments in Ukraine. In fact, commodity prices have continued to decline today which could take the gale-force out of the coming headwinds for the global economy.
This remains an incredibly headline-driven market which means investors will likely
15-03-2022 11:17 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Australian dollar has finally managed to stem the bleeding on Tuesday, after two days of sharp losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7225, up 0.56% on the day.
With the war continuing to rage in Ukraine, markets remain fragile and risk apprehension is high.
15-03-2022 10:13 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher