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AUD falls as trade balance shrinks
The Australian dollar has extended its losses and has fallen below the symbolic 75 line. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7475, down 0.45% on the day. Central bank announcements have been sending the Australian dollar up and down this week like a yo-yo.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro edges lower on French nerves
The euro is down slightly on Thursday and remains under pressure. EUR/USD hasn't posted a winning session in the month of April and fell to 1.0874 yesterday, which was a one-month low.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil slips on SPR, gold stays sideways
Oil prices fall on IEA release Oil prices dipped overnight after the IEA announced a globally coordinated reserve release of 120 million barrels, which is actually a net 60 million release when the US contribution is stripped out. Brent crude and WTI fell by over 4.0% overnight, assisted by higher than expected US Crude Inventories, to USD 101.70 and USD 96.40 respectively.   With the IEA release and the US SPR releases now priced in, Asia has walked in and bought the dips in both contracts t
by Jeffrey Halley
Wall Street retreat spills into Asia
Hawkish Fed minutes weighs on stock markets Asian equity markets are lower today as it follows Wall Street south, digests the implications of a faster tightening Federal Reserve, and casts a nervous eye at China and its virus situation. Overnight, the FOMC Minutes confirmed the hawkish comments of Lael Brainard the day before, causing more pain on Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell by 0.97%, the Nasdaq tumbled by 2.22%, while the Down Jones eased 0.42% lower.
by Jeffrey Halley
Fed's tightening grip unnerves equities
Fed to accelerate balance sheet reduction The FOMC minutes were released overnight and signalled a faster pace of balance sheet runoff then on previous occasions, targeting USD 95 billion per month from September, easing into the process from next month. The minutes also suggested that some 50 bp Fed Funds hikes were on the cards and expect that to happen from next month.
by Jeffrey Halley
Bitcoin - A false breakout?
Can it still capitalise on the breakout? Bitcoin appeared to have made a very bullish move last week when it finally broke above $45,500 but since then, it's all been downhill. Sentiment in the broader markets has dipped in recent days and bitcoin has suffered as a result. Even prior to this, it failed to capitalise on the initial breakout which may have been a sign of what was to come. While the trend in the longer term may still be positive, the current environment isn't making life easy.
by Craig Erlam
Oil slumps as more short-term relief expected, gold struggles
Oil prices fall on EIA, SPR Crude prices declined after both the EIA report showed US stockpiles posted a surprise build and on reports that IEA nations will deliver an additional 60 million barrels from reserves.  Oil might be down today as oil-consuming nations show they are aggressively tapping their emergency stockpiles, but that won’t last as supply constraints will remain given the production outlook for most OPEC+ nations. Pockets of severe supply disruptions for gasoline, diesel, and je
by Edward Moya
Stocks extend post FOMC minutes, bitcoin lower
US stocks extended losses after the Fed minutes showed they are ready to deliver super-sized hikes and reduce its massive bond holdings at a maximum pace of USD 95 billion a month. Everyone knew the Fed was telegraphing the balance sheet reduction was coming and expectations were for the pace to be around USD 100 billion, so the USD 95 billion amount was initially viewed as dovish.  The Fed noted that they preferred to deliver a half-point increase at the March meeting, but the uncertainty from
by Edward Moya
Oil falls on SPR, gold steady
Oil slips as IEA releases details of SPR release Oil prices are edging lower again on Wednesday as the IEA confirms the details of the coordinated reserve release that will aim to stabilise crude markets. The 120 million barrel release includes 60 million from the US which is part of the 180 million it announced last week.
by Craig Erlam
Stocks hit ahead of Fed minutes
Stock markets are taking a bit of a beating on Wednesday as investors start to fret again about the pace of monetary tightening. Fed mulling point hikes Cracks are starting to appear as it becomes clear that the central bank has little choice but to tackle inflation head-on, no matter the cost, after arriving late to the party with its first hike last month. It took a long time for the central bank to acknowledge the problem and much longer again before it eventually started raising rates and
by Craig Erlam
Canada dollar as Ivey PMI jumps
The Canadian dollar is steady today, trading at the 1.25 line. Canada's Ivey PMI for March was up sharply, rising from 60.6 to 74.2. This crushed the consensus estimate of 60.0, the highest level in more than 11 years.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro stops nasty slide
The euro is flat on Wednesday, putting the brakes on a nasty four-day slide. EUR/USD dipped below the 1.09 line in the Asian session before recovering. ECB's Panetta warns about stagflation Inflation has been skyrocketing in the US and UK, giving the Fed and BoE plenty of sleepless nights.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie takes a breath after wild ride
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday, after taking quite the ride a day earlier, courtesy of the RBA rate decision. RBA hawkishness sends Aussie soaring AUD/USD rocketed some 200 points at one stage on Tuesday, in response to the RBA rate statement at its policy meeting. The Bank held rates at an ultra-low 0.10%, where they have been pegged since November 2020.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil edges higher, gold range trades
Oil prices are steady Oil prices eased overnight in the face of a stronger US dollar, a slow news ticker from Eastern Europe, and continuing concerns over China’s growth as the Shanghai lockdown continued. Brent crude fell by 2.15% to USD 104.60 a barrel, with WTI falling 2.45% to USD 101.15 a barrel.
by Jeffrey Halley
Higher US yields lift the dollar
Brainard's hawkish comments buoy the US dollar The US dollar rose overnight as US long-dated yields spiked higher after very hawkish comments from the Fed’s Brainard, previously one of its most dovish officials. A robust ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing employment, new orders and business activity served as an additional tailwind.
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian equities slump
Brainard's tightening comments dampen Asian markets Hawkish comments around the Fed’s balance sheet runoff and 0.50% rate hikes threw a bucket of cold reality onto equity markets overnight. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, one of the most dovish FOMC members, said that a reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, so-called quantitative tightening, could begin as early as next month and at a much faster pace than previous efforts.
by Jeffrey Halley
Left Brainard, right Brainard
Brainard talks hawkish The overnight session was dominated by comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who set the cat amongst the pigeons of the equity and bond markets with some very hawkish comments. Ms Brainard suggested that a reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, so-called quantitative tightening, could begin as early as next month and at a much faster pace than previous efforts.
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil edges lower, gold consolidates
Oil pares gains but remains in consolidation Oil prices are slipping a little on Tuesday after rebounding at the start of the week. The threat of European sanctions on Russian oil remains an upside risk for crude prices despite the firm opposition in the short term from certain member states.
by Craig Erlam
Choppy markets continue
It's been another choppy day in financial markets with Europe ending a mixed bag and US indices all in the red but to varying degrees. The markets are very indicative of the uncertainty that we continue to see from Ukraine/Russia negotiations to sanctions, interest rates, recession warnings, lockdowns etc. There's no end to the uncertainty, which makes the resilience we're seeing in stock markets all the more impressive. Europe and the US continue to tighten sanctions against Russia, albeit wi
by Craig Erlam
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 316)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. And in a special episode of the Market Insights podcast, we speak to OANDA General Counsel Lisa Shemie who joins us from New York to talk about some of the legal aspects of the FX sector. Lisa talked about her career trajectory leading up to her joining OANDA late last year, and discussed some issues relating to the FX markets and emerging regulatory issues.  She touched on the FX Global Code, some differenc
by Craig Erlam
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