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Market Insights Podcast (Episode 317)
Jonny Hart looks back on the week's business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they discuss how financial markets reacted to the Fed Minutes, what happened in the oil markets, and discussed cryptocurrencies. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.
by Edward Moya
Oil drops, gold rebounds
Oil Crude prices are declining as both supply and demand-side drivers start to turn bearish. The massive IEA crude reserve release plan will provide short-term relief for oil prices but that is also happening as China’s Covid lockdowns are becoming a bigger hit on crude demand.
by Edward Moya
NZ dollar falls as FOMC talks tough
The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Thursday and dropped below the 69 line. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6887, down 0.42% on the day. Fed puts 0.50% hikes on the table The hawkishness of the FOMC minutes was not a surprise, given that the markets had heard this from Fed members George and Brainard a day earlier.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil falls below 100, gold drifting
Oil below USD 100 after IEA and EIA Oil prices are slipping again today after falling more than 5% on Wednesday. The combination of the IEA reserve release and EIA inventory data sent prices tumbling yesterday and suddenly a world of double-figure oil looks possible. That wouldn't have been something to celebrate only a few months ago but a lot has changed since then.
by Craig Erlam
Fed raises recession risks
Equity markets fall on hawkish Fed Stock markets are back in the red on Thursday as further hawkish commentary from the Fed increases the odds of a recession over the next couple of years. The soft landing that the Fed so desires is easier said than done, especially in an environment when inflation is so high and energy prices are through the roof. And when you consider the kind of tightening that's being proposed, the economy is going to have to display incredible resilience to weather the stor
by Craig Erlam
AUD falls as trade balance shrinks
The Australian dollar has extended its losses and has fallen below the symbolic 75 line. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7475, down 0.45% on the day. Central bank announcements have been sending the Australian dollar up and down this week like a yo-yo.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro edges lower on French nerves
The euro is down slightly on Thursday and remains under pressure. EUR/USD hasn't posted a winning session in the month of April and fell to 1.0874 yesterday, which was a one-month low.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil slips on SPR, gold stays sideways
Oil prices fall on IEA release Oil prices dipped overnight after the IEA announced a globally coordinated reserve release of 120 million barrels, which is actually a net 60 million release when the US contribution is stripped out. Brent crude and WTI fell by over 4.0% overnight, assisted by higher than expected US Crude Inventories, to USD 101.70 and USD 96.40 respectively.   With the IEA release and the US SPR releases now priced in, Asia has walked in and bought the dips in both contracts t
by Jeffrey Halley
Wall Street retreat spills into Asia
Hawkish Fed minutes weighs on stock markets Asian equity markets are lower today as it follows Wall Street south, digests the implications of a faster tightening Federal Reserve, and casts a nervous eye at China and its virus situation. Overnight, the FOMC Minutes confirmed the hawkish comments of Lael Brainard the day before, causing more pain on Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell by 0.97%, the Nasdaq tumbled by 2.22%, while the Down Jones eased 0.42% lower.
by Jeffrey Halley
Fed's tightening grip unnerves equities
Fed to accelerate balance sheet reduction The FOMC minutes were released overnight and signalled a faster pace of balance sheet runoff then on previous occasions, targeting USD 95 billion per month from September, easing into the process from next month. The minutes also suggested that some 50 bp Fed Funds hikes were on the cards and expect that to happen from next month.
by Jeffrey Halley
Bitcoin - A false breakout?
Can it still capitalise on the breakout? Bitcoin appeared to have made a very bullish move last week when it finally broke above $45,500 but since then, it's all been downhill. Sentiment in the broader markets has dipped in recent days and bitcoin has suffered as a result. Even prior to this, it failed to capitalise on the initial breakout which may have been a sign of what was to come. While the trend in the longer term may still be positive, the current environment isn't making life easy.
by Craig Erlam
Oil slumps as more short-term relief expected, gold struggles
Oil prices fall on EIA, SPR Crude prices declined after both the EIA report showed US stockpiles posted a surprise build and on reports that IEA nations will deliver an additional 60 million barrels from reserves.  Oil might be down today as oil-consuming nations show they are aggressively tapping their emergency stockpiles, but that won’t last as supply constraints will remain given the production outlook for most OPEC+ nations. Pockets of severe supply disruptions for gasoline, diesel, and je
by Edward Moya
Stocks extend post FOMC minutes, bitcoin lower
US stocks extended losses after the Fed minutes showed they are ready to deliver super-sized hikes and reduce its massive bond holdings at a maximum pace of USD 95 billion a month. Everyone knew the Fed was telegraphing the balance sheet reduction was coming and expectations were for the pace to be around USD 100 billion, so the USD 95 billion amount was initially viewed as dovish.  The Fed noted that they preferred to deliver a half-point increase at the March meeting, but the uncertainty from
by Edward Moya
Oil falls on SPR, gold steady
Oil slips as IEA releases details of SPR release Oil prices are edging lower again on Wednesday as the IEA confirms the details of the coordinated reserve release that will aim to stabilise crude markets. The 120 million barrel release includes 60 million from the US which is part of the 180 million it announced last week.
by Craig Erlam
Stocks hit ahead of Fed minutes
Stock markets are taking a bit of a beating on Wednesday as investors start to fret again about the pace of monetary tightening. Fed mulling point hikes Cracks are starting to appear as it becomes clear that the central bank has little choice but to tackle inflation head-on, no matter the cost, after arriving late to the party with its first hike last month. It took a long time for the central bank to acknowledge the problem and much longer again before it eventually started raising rates and
by Craig Erlam
Canada dollar as Ivey PMI jumps
The Canadian dollar is steady today, trading at the 1.25 line. Canada's Ivey PMI for March was up sharply, rising from 60.6 to 74.2. This crushed the consensus estimate of 60.0, the highest level in more than 11 years.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro stops nasty slide
The euro is flat on Wednesday, putting the brakes on a nasty four-day slide. EUR/USD dipped below the 1.09 line in the Asian session before recovering. ECB's Panetta warns about stagflation Inflation has been skyrocketing in the US and UK, giving the Fed and BoE plenty of sleepless nights.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie takes a breath after wild ride
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday, after taking quite the ride a day earlier, courtesy of the RBA rate decision. RBA hawkishness sends Aussie soaring AUD/USD rocketed some 200 points at one stage on Tuesday, in response to the RBA rate statement at its policy meeting. The Bank held rates at an ultra-low 0.10%, where they have been pegged since November 2020.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil edges higher, gold range trades
Oil prices are steady Oil prices eased overnight in the face of a stronger US dollar, a slow news ticker from Eastern Europe, and continuing concerns over China’s growth as the Shanghai lockdown continued. Brent crude fell by 2.15% to USD 104.60 a barrel, with WTI falling 2.45% to USD 101.15 a barrel.
by Jeffrey Halley
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