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Choppy waters for stocks ahead of US inflation report, small businesses are hurting, euro falls to parity against dollar, bitcoin below USD 20k

Stocks might be struggling for direction ahead of a pivotal inflation report, but global growth concerns continue to make rates comes in as the Treasury curve inversion gets deeper. The June inflation report will be a scorcher and help cement market expectations that the Fed will deliver another massive rate hike at the Fed policy meeting at the end of the month.

12-07-2022 14:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil extends losses on COVID fears, gold fights for life

Oil takes a tumble Oil prices crumbled as the crude demand outlook looks like it could get slashed after the WHO advised governments to take steps to curb COVID-19 transmissions as the new wave makes its way across Europe and the US. Crude just can’t catch a break as all the headlines are turning bearish. Earlier weakness for oil stemmed from Heathrow Airport capping travel, growing European recession fears following collapsing German investor confidence, and rising fears that Shanghai will

12-07-2022 14:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro teasingly flirts with parity

For those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance.

12-07-2022 11:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil slides, gold ticks higher

Oil slides as OPEC forecast another tight year Oil is falling quite heavily today, off more than 4% and pushing WTI back below USD 100 a barrel. Recession fears are strengthing the bearish case for crude and we're seeing those materialise after previously reaching very high levels. That said, the market remains extremely tight and the OPEC report today highlighted that fact, with demand next year seen exceeding supply by a million barrels per day.

12-07-2022 10:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Unease ahead of US inflation

Another day of significant unease in financial markets as investors nervously await US inflation data and the start of earnings season. The economic calendar goes up a couple of gears tomorrow, with RBNZ and BoC rate decisions bookending the US inflation data. Fifty basis point rate hikes are now the norm and the debate has shifted to how super-sized they'll be, with a stronger US CPI number tomorrow potentially cementing another 75 from the Fed in a couple of weeks. In anticipation of that, inv

12-07-2022 10:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ dollar takes pause after tumble

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Tuesday, after a plunge a day earlier. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6120, up 0.13%. RBNZ expected to deliver 50bp hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds its policy meeting on Wednesday, and all indications point to a 50-bp hike, which would be the third such increase in as many meetings.

12-07-2022 07:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen's drop sparks MOF warning

The Japanese yen has stabilized on Tuesday, after taking a nasty tumble at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.91, down 0.35%. USD/JPY punches above 137 The US dollar went on a tear on Monday, as an excellent non-farm payroll report paved the way for the Fed to proceed with another supersize 75bp increase at the July meeting. CME's FedWatch has pegged a 75bp move at 90%, with a 10% likelihood of a full 100bp increase.

12-07-2022 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 351)

Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley talks about news impacting the market and the week ahead. In this week's podcast, the Euro is approaching parity with the US Dollar for the first time in decades. We discuss the move, the reasons behind it, and what lies ahead for the single currency.

12-07-2022 06:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar tramples all before it

Flight to safety boosts US dollar The US dollar caught another flight-to-safety boost overnight, running rampant over DM currencies with the euro, sterling, yen, and Australian dollar coming in for particular attention. In Asia today, EUR/USD continues to flirt with parity, while the US dollar has strengthened broadly across the Asia FX space. The dollar index soared 1.23% higher to 108.21 overnight, gaining another 0.16% to 108.38 in Asia as the euro and sterling losses continued.

12-07-2022 04:43 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil trades sideways, gold dips lower

Oil trades sideways overnight Oil prices had another choppy session overnight but ultimately traded sideways, booking just modest losses. Markets remain torn between recession fears in the US, Europe, and China torpedoing growth and thus, oil consumption, and the still very tight supply/demand reality of the physical market.

12-07-2022 04:25 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities are mostly lower

China lockdowns weigh on Asian markets Wall Street went back into recession mode overnight, with the growth-centric Nasdaq underperforming as tech heavyweights were sold off. The Nasdaq’s fall has translated directly into weakness with the correlated North Asia heavyweights, while the rest of Asia and Pacific has escaped mostly unscathed.

12-07-2022 04:12 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Struggling for parity

Things sure are looking messy out there right now, especially in Forex Land where the euro is within a hair’s breadth of trading at parity with the US dollar this morning. Overnight, the single currency slumped by 1.45% to 1.0040 as Euro yields edged lower as markets fell over themselves to price in a European recession.

12-07-2022 04:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil slips, Gold tumbles, bitcoin struggling

Oil pares losses Oil prices are slipping again on Monday, although it has recovered the bulk of the losses from earlier in the day. Recession fears are increasingly driving these markets and that's one reality that could limit the rise in oil prices over the medium term. The prospect of further Covid restrictions in China is a near-term headwind for crude prices, also, which could see them trade closer to $100 a barrel as we saw earlier this year. Joe Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia this weekend

11-07-2022 19:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Another bear-market rally comes and goes

Risk appetite wanes once more We're back in risk aversion mode at the start of the week with equities sliding, tech getting crushed and the dollar reigning supreme. While the jobs report on Friday highlighted that the US is faring better than the rest in the race to avoid a recession, the rest of the world is sinking under the weight of a cost-of-living crisis and higher interest rates. Another bear-market rally has come and gone and we now head into earnings season and another week of major

11-07-2022 18:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

Wall Street focused on inflation and earnings, stock investors brace for bad updates, crypto pessimism

US stocks are in for a rough start to the trading week as Wall Street braces for a wrath of downgraded corporate outlooks alongside what will likely be another hot inflation report. Inflation is ‘public enemy number one’ and that will continue to drive fears that the Fed will aggressively tighten policy and send the US economy quickly into a recession. This is a massive week on Wall Street as Fed expectations for the July 27th policy decision will be cemented after this inflation report and

11-07-2022 13:41 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil hit with a one-two punch, gold lower on strong dollar

Oil Oil prices are weakening as crude demand outlook is hit by a one-two punch from China’s rising COVID cases and Wall Street jitters that inflation is hitting the US economy much harder than analysts were expecting. Oil will struggle to hold the USD 100 level if China’s Covid situation deteriorates much further.

11-07-2022 13:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro above parity by a thread

It is looking like July 2022 could be a memorable month for the euro, but unfortunately not for the right reasons. EUR/USD is within a whisker of dropping below parity with the US dollar for the first time since 2002, when the euro was just three years old.

11-07-2022 10:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen plunges on NFP, Japan elections

USD/JPY has started the week with sharp gains and is trading at 137.60, up 1.12%. The US dollar has gained ground against all of the majors on Monday, courtesy of the strong June non-farm payroll report on Friday. The markets were expecting a slowdown from the gain of 336 thousand in May.

11-07-2022 09:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar slides, RBNZ in spotlight

The New Zealand dollar is seeing red on Monday, as the US dollar has started the week with gains against the major currencies after a solid non-farm payrolls release on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6142, down 0.76%. RBNZ expected to deliver 50bp hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight this week.

11-07-2022 07:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar slides below 68 line

The Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory, after a brief rally late last week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796, down 0.82%. Can Australia avoid a recession? The RBA is playing catch-up with the inflation curve, but the central bank can't be faulted for being aggressive.

11-07-2022 05:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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