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US Close - Stocks rally on strong retail sales and earnings, Oil jumps, Gold hovers around $1700, Bitcoin joins risk rally

US stocks rallied as investors grow optimistic that signs are emerging that inflation is slowing, consumer spending remains healthy, and on a better second day of earnings. There still remains a good chance that we will see stocks make fresh lows, but now appears to be the time for some traders to test the waters. The Atlanta Fed GDPnow was cut again, now seeing second quarter GDP at -1.2%, which would signal the economy is in a technical recession.

15-07-2022 14:50 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Rate hikes galore

Next week offers a plethora of monetary policy meetings with the ECB, BoJ, CBRT, SARB and CBR among those. Central banks have mostly been racing to raise interest rates while watching official inflation data surpass their targets multiple times over.

15-07-2022 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

Fed Restores Calm Ahead of Blackout Period

It's been another turbulent week in financial markets and there's still time for another wave of volatility in the final hours of trade. It's not just inflation that's running red hot right now, with Mediterranean weather forecasts here in the UK giving everyone another reason to look forward to the weekend. Naturally, I'm fully expecting a chorus of complaints about it being too hot after it previously being too mild, which feels strangely familiar at this point. The US inflation report on Wedn

15-07-2022 09:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil recovers, gold under pressure

Oil recovers amid soothing Fed words Oil prices are edging higher again after falling around 20% over the last month in response to increasing recession fears. Inflation data on Wednesday didn't help matters, with the market pricing in a strong possibility that the Fed moves up a gear and hikes 1% this month. That saw crude prices slip further but soothing words from Bullard and Waller reassured everyone that 75 basis points remains the base case.

15-07-2022 09:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie edges up after strong US retail sales

US retail sales better than expected The week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%.

15-07-2022 09:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro eyes US retail sales

The euro continues to trade close to the parity line, after breaking below this symbolic level during the week. It marked the first time that EUR/USD fell below parity since 2002.

15-07-2022 06:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar shrugs off softs Mfg. PMI

NZ Manufacturing PMI contracts The New Zealand dollar has edged higher on Friday. The currency yawned as New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in June, for the first time since August 2021, during the last national lockdown in the country.

15-07-2022 05:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil pares losses, gold loses ground

Oil prices are steady Both Brent crude and WTI were caught up in recession fears overnight, plummeting by four dollars a barrel at one stage in panicked New York trading. Once again, both contracts found their feet as the US dollar retreated after rate hike comments from Fed officials, finishing the day nearly unchanged after a torrid session. Brent crude finished almost unchanged at USD 99.55, adding 0.30% to USD 99.90 a barrel in Asian trading.

15-07-2022 04:45 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities are in positive territory

China Retail Sales boosts Asian markets Wall Street threatened to melt down overnight as markets hit the panic button over a potential 1.0% Fed rate hike at the end of this month, and soft earnings from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley raised recession fears. Soothing comments on the former by two Fed officials allowed very skittish equity markets to rally later in the session, with Wall Street making back much of its losses. The S&P 500 fell by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq managed to close in positive t

15-07-2022 04:36 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Risk aversion lifts the US dollar

Recession jitters boost US dollar Currency markets had a roller-coaster session with European and US investors piling into haven US dollars from the get-go on recession fears. Weak bank earnings were another headwind and at one stage EUR/USD had fallen nearly 100 points to 0.9950.

15-07-2022 04:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

When a plan doesn’t come together

Markets panic over possible 1% Fed hike I only have some egg dripping from my face this morning, instead of a full dozen including shells. My view that the price action post the US inflation numbers across asset classes suggested an albeit temporary, risk sentiment rally was on the way, was in serious doubt yesterday.

15-07-2022 03:48 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 352)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss US inflation, the BoC rate hike and what's still to come this week.

14-07-2022 12:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen tumbles to 139

The Japanese yen has been pummeled today by the US dollar. USD/JPY is currently trading at 139.22, up 1.29% on the day. Is 140 next for the yen? The US dollar is showing broad strength today, and for the yen that has meant a new 20-year low, as USD/JPY touched 139.39 earlier in the day.

14-07-2022 10:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil falls on recession fears, gold slides

Oil tumbles as IEA revises down demand growth Oil prices are continuing to trend lower as we move towards the end of the week, with recession fears once again the driving force. The IEA alluded to economic risks in its monthly oil report, in which it downgraded demand growth this year and next by 100,000 barrels per day. The downward revision would have been larger but for the stronger rebound in developing and emerging economies led by China.

14-07-2022 09:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

The ship has sailed

Stock markets staged a surprisingly good recovery following the inflation data on Wednesday but that wasn't enough to stop them from ending the day in the red or starting today in a similar position. Recession fears have fully gripped the markets and central banks are left with little alternative but to tighten aggressively into it. The CPI data yesterday was the latest in a long list of disappointing releases from the US and the result is that it's now a coin toss between a 75 and 100 basis poi

14-07-2022 09:45 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar slides post-BoC

The Canadian dollar has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3132, up 1.18%. BoC shocks with 100bp salvo The Bank of Canada has been in an aggressive mode, but nobody was expecting the massive 100bp hike on Wednesday, the largest rate increase in 24 years.

14-07-2022 07:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie shrugs off superb jobs report

Australian employment sparkles It has been a week of the good and the bad/ugly from Australian releases. The employment report for June, released earlier today, improved from May and easily beat expectations.

14-07-2022 06:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil almost unchanged, gold recovers

Oil markets remain a bastion of calm I never thought I would say oil markets and bastion of calm in one sentence, but it is 2022, and anything is possible. Despite the noise seen in other asset classes from US data and central bank moves, oil was almost unchanged overnight.

14-07-2022 05:40 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Bad medicine is what I need

Central banks deliver large rate hikes Central banks around the world have gone full Bon Jovi handing out some monetary policy bad medicine over the past 24 hours, as the fight against inflation permeates even the most ardent fence-sitters. South Korea and New Zealand hiked by 0.50% yesterday, with Canada weighing in with a crowd-pleaser sized 1.0% hike.

14-07-2022 04:33 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Inflation feeling hot hot hot, Fed rate path confirmed, BOC surprise, bitcoin hovers above USD 19k

Ole-ole – ole ole. Ole ole -ole ole. Me gas prices on fire – Me food bill on fire – Inflation feeling hot hot hot! Fed hawks – All around me feeling hot hot hot! When you hear the Merrymen’s hit song ‘Feeling Hot Hot Hot’, you normally think of partying somewhere tropical, but today it does the job in summing up today’s inflation report. Inflation remains scorching hot.

13-07-2022 13:14 GMT by Edward Moya

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