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Crude slumps on inflation, gold recovers

Crude slides as recession risks build The US inflation data caused shockwaves throughout financial markets, with oil also sliding on the back of the release. A recession is now the primary bear case for crude given the tightness in the market and it's clear here as much as anywhere how serious the economic risk is being taken. Both Brent and WTI are now back below USD 100, down around 20% over the last month, and they may well remain below there which would have been inconceivable in mid-June.

13-07-2022 11:45 GMT by Craig Erlam

On the ropes

Equity markets are tumbling again on Wednesday as the latest batch of inflation data delivered another heavy blow to sentiment. Every month investors eagerly await the CPI report for any sign that the inflation problem is easing and they are almost always left deflated by the data. Today feels like one of the biggest blows yet and given how aggressive the Fed is already being and the increase in recession talk in recent weeks, it's a tough one to recover from. It may not prove to be the knockout

13-07-2022 11:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

Sterling pares losses after US CPI jumps

The British pound has taken investors for a ride today, as GBP/USD dropped sharply but has since recovered. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1856, down 0.28%.

13-07-2022 10:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar eyes BoC, US inflation

USD/CAD is trading quietly at the 130.00 line, with a busy day ahead. The Bank of Canada holds its rate meeting and the US posts the June inflation report. Bank of Canada could deliver 75bp salvo The Bank of Canada is expected to press the pedal to the gas later today, with the markets expecting a supersize 75bp hike.

13-07-2022 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar yawns after Reserve Bank's hike

RBNZ delivers 50bp hike As advertised, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 0.50%, bringing the cash rate to 2.50%. The New Zealand dollar responded with a mere shrug, indicative of the move being priced in by the markets.

13-07-2022 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil slides on inventories, gold steady

Oil slumps overnight As mentioned above, a surprisingly high build in US API crude and refined product inventories spurred a late and aggressive slump in oil prices. Clearly, the speculative market is not prepared to wear any sort of losses from bottom fishing now, and we can expect to see more of these sorts of days going forward until the recession/inflation picture becomes clearer.

13-07-2022 05:27 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar consolidates

Will US inflation shake up the greenback? After the impressive rally on Monday, the US dollar settled into a pre-US-inflation waiting game overnight, which continues today in Asia as the greenback consolidates recent gains. The dollar index closed almost unchanged at 108.15 overnight, where it remains in Asia.

13-07-2022 05:19 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian markets a mix after Wall St. drops

Asian heavyweights gain on lower oil prices Asia’s northern heavyweights are higher despite a negative Wall Street session overnight, thanks to the slump in oil prices late in the New York session. Wall Street couldn’t hold onto early gains as pre-CPI nerves and recession fears sent US equities down once again.

13-07-2022 05:01 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Big Wednesday

It may not be monster surf breaks in Hawaii or Uluwatu in Bali, but today is shaping up to be a stormy day for markets, with plenty of chances to get dumped and held under the waves for a while. We have already had two central banks in Asia raise policy rates this morning, with the Bank of Korea and Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking by 0.50%, with a hawkish tone in their statements.

13-07-2022 04:52 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

EUR/USD - Parity

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses EURUSD hitting parity for the first time in 20 years and what could come next.

12-07-2022 18:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Tumbles as dollar soars

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the outlook for gold in light of the dollar continuing to rally higher.

12-07-2022 18:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Choppy waters for stocks ahead of US inflation report, small businesses are hurting, euro falls to parity against dollar, bitcoin below USD 20k

Stocks might be struggling for direction ahead of a pivotal inflation report, but global growth concerns continue to make rates comes in as the Treasury curve inversion gets deeper. The June inflation report will be a scorcher and help cement market expectations that the Fed will deliver another massive rate hike at the Fed policy meeting at the end of the month.

12-07-2022 14:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil extends losses on COVID fears, gold fights for life

Oil takes a tumble Oil prices crumbled as the crude demand outlook looks like it could get slashed after the WHO advised governments to take steps to curb COVID-19 transmissions as the new wave makes its way across Europe and the US. Crude just can’t catch a break as all the headlines are turning bearish. Earlier weakness for oil stemmed from Heathrow Airport capping travel, growing European recession fears following collapsing German investor confidence, and rising fears that Shanghai will

12-07-2022 14:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro teasingly flirts with parity

For those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance.

12-07-2022 11:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil slides, gold ticks higher

Oil slides as OPEC forecast another tight year Oil is falling quite heavily today, off more than 4% and pushing WTI back below USD 100 a barrel. Recession fears are strengthing the bearish case for crude and we're seeing those materialise after previously reaching very high levels. That said, the market remains extremely tight and the OPEC report today highlighted that fact, with demand next year seen exceeding supply by a million barrels per day.

12-07-2022 10:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Unease ahead of US inflation

Another day of significant unease in financial markets as investors nervously await US inflation data and the start of earnings season. The economic calendar goes up a couple of gears tomorrow, with RBNZ and BoC rate decisions bookending the US inflation data. Fifty basis point rate hikes are now the norm and the debate has shifted to how super-sized they'll be, with a stronger US CPI number tomorrow potentially cementing another 75 from the Fed in a couple of weeks. In anticipation of that, inv

12-07-2022 10:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ dollar takes pause after tumble

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Tuesday, after a plunge a day earlier. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6120, up 0.13%. RBNZ expected to deliver 50bp hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds its policy meeting on Wednesday, and all indications point to a 50-bp hike, which would be the third such increase in as many meetings.

12-07-2022 07:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen's drop sparks MOF warning

The Japanese yen has stabilized on Tuesday, after taking a nasty tumble at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.91, down 0.35%. USD/JPY punches above 137 The US dollar went on a tear on Monday, as an excellent non-farm payroll report paved the way for the Fed to proceed with another supersize 75bp increase at the July meeting. CME's FedWatch has pegged a 75bp move at 90%, with a 10% likelihood of a full 100bp increase.

12-07-2022 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 351)

Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley talks about news impacting the market and the week ahead. In this week's podcast, the Euro is approaching parity with the US Dollar for the first time in decades. We discuss the move, the reasons behind it, and what lies ahead for the single currency.

12-07-2022 06:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar tramples all before it

Flight to safety boosts US dollar The US dollar caught another flight-to-safety boost overnight, running rampant over DM currencies with the euro, sterling, yen, and Australian dollar coming in for particular attention. In Asia today, EUR/USD continues to flirt with parity, while the US dollar has strengthened broadly across the Asia FX space. The dollar index soared 1.23% higher to 108.21 overnight, gaining another 0.16% to 108.38 in Asia as the euro and sterling losses continued.

12-07-2022 04:43 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

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