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It's not hard to see what the theme of today's note is going to be and for good reason when you see stock markets making punchy gains again in spite of the months that lie ahead. Maybe the heat is getting to everyone - getting closer to 40C here in London and my fan just isn't cutting it - or perhaps the doom and gloom has become a bit tiresome but the two-day rally we've seen on the back of so little looks a little hopeful to me. As ever, I'll caveat this with the fact that stock markets are se

18-07-2022 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil soars after Biden's trip, gold steady

Oil jumps after Biden's failed Saudi trip Oil prices are soaring again today, buoyed by an apparent easing in economic fears, stronger risk appetite and a failure by the White House to get any concrete commitment to increase oil output during the Middle East visit. When the biggest talking point from President Biden's meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a fist bump photo, you know it probably hasn't gone to plan.

18-07-2022 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 353)

Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley talks about news impacting the market and the week ahead. In this week's episode, equities are rallying powerfully in Asia and Europe, and the question is whether this bear market rally has some legs to it? We start the day talking about the baking temperatures in the UK and Europe, the merits of air conditioning in Asia, and the economic impact of people staying indoors.

18-07-2022 06:41 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Euro rallies to 1-week high

The euro is showing some strength, after posting a winning week for the first time in a month. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0143, up 0.55% on the day. After a dramatic drop below the parity line last week, for the first time in 20 years, the euro has rebounded and is trading above the 1.01 level.

18-07-2022 05:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil edges higher, gold steady

Oil prices edge higher Both Brent crude and WTI rose modestly on Friday as they continued to unwind the mid-week slump. In Asia, hopes of more China stimulus, and a lack of concrete production promises from President Biden’s Middle East visit have seen Brent crude prices climb in Asian trading. Brent crude finished Friday’s session 1.25% higher at USD 100.80, having tested USD 102.50 intraday.

18-07-2022 03:40 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Wall Street rally pushes US dollar lower

US dollar retreats as Wall Street rises The US dollar fell heavily on Friday, versus the developed market space, as Wall Street's impressive rally spilt over into a broader sentiment rally in other asset classes. That saw the dollar index make a long-overdue correction lower.

18-07-2022 03:33 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities track Wall Street higher

Asia follows Wall Street higher Wall Street staged an impressive rally after better than expected retail sales and consumer sentiment data from the US on Friday, as markets focused on a still-robust US consumer while ignoring its ominous warnings for the trajectory of Fed monetary policy. With a dearth of tier-1 data this week, and the FOMC in a pre-meeting media blackout, the equity rally could potentially extend throughout the week.

18-07-2022 03:15 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Bear market rally back on?

Wall Street rises as US data outperforms It says something about the level of confusion in the markets right now (American markets anyway), that having wrung their hands all last about inflation, 100 basis point rate hikes by the Fed, and an impending recession, that strong US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday saw Wall Street rally impressively. If that data had come out on Tuesday or Wednesday last week, we would probably have had a meltdown.

18-07-2022 03:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US Close - Stocks rally on strong retail sales and earnings, Oil jumps, Gold hovers around $1700, Bitcoin joins risk rally

US stocks rallied as investors grow optimistic that signs are emerging that inflation is slowing, consumer spending remains healthy, and on a better second day of earnings. There still remains a good chance that we will see stocks make fresh lows, but now appears to be the time for some traders to test the waters. The Atlanta Fed GDPnow was cut again, now seeing second quarter GDP at -1.2%, which would signal the economy is in a technical recession.

15-07-2022 14:50 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Rate hikes galore

Next week offers a plethora of monetary policy meetings with the ECB, BoJ, CBRT, SARB and CBR among those. Central banks have mostly been racing to raise interest rates while watching official inflation data surpass their targets multiple times over.

15-07-2022 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

Fed Restores Calm Ahead of Blackout Period

It's been another turbulent week in financial markets and there's still time for another wave of volatility in the final hours of trade. It's not just inflation that's running red hot right now, with Mediterranean weather forecasts here in the UK giving everyone another reason to look forward to the weekend. Naturally, I'm fully expecting a chorus of complaints about it being too hot after it previously being too mild, which feels strangely familiar at this point. The US inflation report on Wedn

15-07-2022 09:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil recovers, gold under pressure

Oil recovers amid soothing Fed words Oil prices are edging higher again after falling around 20% over the last month in response to increasing recession fears. Inflation data on Wednesday didn't help matters, with the market pricing in a strong possibility that the Fed moves up a gear and hikes 1% this month. That saw crude prices slip further but soothing words from Bullard and Waller reassured everyone that 75 basis points remains the base case.

15-07-2022 09:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie edges up after strong US retail sales

US retail sales better than expected The week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%.

15-07-2022 09:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro eyes US retail sales

The euro continues to trade close to the parity line, after breaking below this symbolic level during the week. It marked the first time that EUR/USD fell below parity since 2002.

15-07-2022 06:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar shrugs off softs Mfg. PMI

NZ Manufacturing PMI contracts The New Zealand dollar has edged higher on Friday. The currency yawned as New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in June, for the first time since August 2021, during the last national lockdown in the country.

15-07-2022 05:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil pares losses, gold loses ground

Oil prices are steady Both Brent crude and WTI were caught up in recession fears overnight, plummeting by four dollars a barrel at one stage in panicked New York trading. Once again, both contracts found their feet as the US dollar retreated after rate hike comments from Fed officials, finishing the day nearly unchanged after a torrid session. Brent crude finished almost unchanged at USD 99.55, adding 0.30% to USD 99.90 a barrel in Asian trading.

15-07-2022 04:45 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities are in positive territory

China Retail Sales boosts Asian markets Wall Street threatened to melt down overnight as markets hit the panic button over a potential 1.0% Fed rate hike at the end of this month, and soft earnings from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley raised recession fears. Soothing comments on the former by two Fed officials allowed very skittish equity markets to rally later in the session, with Wall Street making back much of its losses. The S&P 500 fell by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq managed to close in positive t

15-07-2022 04:36 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Risk aversion lifts the US dollar

Recession jitters boost US dollar Currency markets had a roller-coaster session with European and US investors piling into haven US dollars from the get-go on recession fears. Weak bank earnings were another headwind and at one stage EUR/USD had fallen nearly 100 points to 0.9950.

15-07-2022 04:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

When a plan doesn’t come together

Markets panic over possible 1% Fed hike I only have some egg dripping from my face this morning, instead of a full dozen including shells. My view that the price action post the US inflation numbers across asset classes suggested an albeit temporary, risk sentiment rally was on the way, was in serious doubt yesterday.

15-07-2022 03:48 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 352)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss US inflation, the BoC rate hike and what's still to come this week.

14-07-2022 12:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

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