OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the recent recovery in gold and questions whether it will continue.
06-10-2022 16:15 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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US stocks bounced around on payrolls eve, digesting another round of hawkish Fed speak. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signaled there is no Fed pivot coming until financial conditions worsen significantly from here. Kashkari said the Fed will keep hiking rates to bring inflation and that they are “quite a ways away” from pausing their tightening cycle.
06-10-2022 13:25 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil
It is getting hard to bet against higher crude prices. This week’s OPEC+ decision was a game changer for the oil market, as it signals tight conditions will remain throughout this winter. Energy traders are not really believing that the Biden administration will be able to do anything quickly to stop the rally in oil prices.
The NOPEC bill seems like it has a lot of barriers and won’t be an immediate course of action. The SPR has been tapped already and the US is dangerously depleting in
06-10-2022 13:18 GMT
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%.
06-10-2022 10:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Equity markets have erased early gains to trade in the red on Thursday, as investors take a cautious approach ahead of Friday's jobs report.
The narrative in recent days of weaker data being positive as it could be a precursor to slower tightening didn't seem sustainable and it's already proving to be the case. I think it was more a reflection of the steep sell-off in the markets and the performance of risk assets in general over the six weeks previous, rather than the data.
06-10-2022 09:31 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OPEC+ boosts oil prices after large cut
Oil prices are edging lower today after OPEC+ announced a huge production cut on Wednesday of two million barrels per day. With the group failing to hit output targets by a widening margin as the year has progressed, the net cut will be around half that, if not less, but that's still a substantial reduction in an already tight market.
Of course, the global economy is slowing as a result of an inflation and interest rate shock - which soaring oil prices and
06-10-2022 09:19 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, up 0.49%.
Canada releases Ivey PMI for September later today, with the markets anticipating another solid release.
06-10-2022 09:01 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
NZD/USD started the day with gains but has reversed directions and is sharply lower in the North American session. The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5657, down 1.38%.
RBNZ raises rates by 0.50%
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 0.50% hike, bringing the benchmark to 3.50%, its highest level since 2015.
06-10-2022 07:08 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD started the week with huge gains, but has been in calm waters since then. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6478, up 0.17%.
Retail sales points to slowing economy
The RBA's sharp tightening is having an effect on economic growth.
06-10-2022 05:19 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The economy is too strong for the Fed to pivot. The strong start to October is over after both a private payroll report and service sector data reminded investors how strong some parts of the economy remain.
05-10-2022 14:10 GMT
by Edward Moya
OPEC+ agrees to cut production
OPEC+ agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels a day. OPEC+ is keeping the oil market tight with the biggest output cut since 2020. The production cut was driven by uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.
05-10-2022 14:00 GMT
by Edward Moya
Stock markets are paring gains after a phenomenal rebound on Monday and Tuesday as two weeks of losses were wiped out in just two sessions.
It's been a very impressive relief rally, albeit one aided by a rose-tinted interpretation of certain economic indicators and a terrible plunge in the weeks before. This isn't the time to get carried away but it is understandable that we're seeing some relief.
05-10-2022 12:34 GMT
by Craig Erlam
A substantial OPEC+ cut incoming
Today's OPEC+ meeting has been heavily speculated about this week, as delegates have hinted at increasingly large output cuts in response to a dimming economic outlook and lower prices. Last month's warning shot of 100,000 barrels per day fell on deaf ears and the alliance may now be prepared to cut by 10 times that, even 20 if some sources are to be believed.
Adding to the uncertainty is the prospect of a group cut backed up by additional unilateral reductions,
05-10-2022 12:16 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the UK fiscal situation, Japanese intervention, OPEC+ and the week ahead.
05-10-2022 09:24 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Wall Street sees light at the end of the Fed rate hiking tunnel and the scramble to pick up stocks is on. Investors are growing confident that the peak in rates was made last week.
04-10-2022 15:49 GMT
by Edward Moya
Stock markets recovered earlier losses on Monday and are adding to that in early trade on Tuesday, with Asia also posting strong gains.
The turnaround in risk appetite appears to have been driven by another deterioration in PMI surveys as traders speculate that such weakness could be a precursor to slower monetary tightening. If that sounds like straw clutching, it's probably because it is but then, equity markets have had a rough ride of late and that can't last forever.
The deceleration begins
04-10-2022 06:09 GMT
by Craig Erlam
All eyes on OPEC+
Oil prices are continuing to creep higher ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday. Markets are now expecting a large output cut in excess of one million barrels per day, for which there is seemingly plenty of support.
04-10-2022 06:03 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The New Zealand dollar continues to rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5746, up 0.43%.
RBNZ likely to deliver 0.50% hike
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a meeting on Wednesday.
04-10-2022 04:41 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD started the day with losses, but has since recovered. The Aussie is trading at 0.6540, up 0.37%.
RBA surprises with 0.25% hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia was widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points at today's meeting, but the Bank surprised the markets with a small increase of 0.25%, which raises the cash rate to 2.35%.
04-10-2022 03:56 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US stocks are surging to kick off October, helped by tumbling Treasury yields after a key manufacturing report showed noticeable signs of downward pressure on inflation. It is premature to say that the Fed is almost done with tightening, but it seems Wall Street is growing confident that they could be done in December. Investors are starting to doubt central banks globally will remain aggressive with fighting inflation as financial stability risks are growing; first we almost had a gilt market
03-10-2022 12:30 GMT
by Edward Moya