OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the situation in the UK and the week ahead.
10-10-2022 05:42 GMT
by Craig Erlam
All news & analysis
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Jonny Hart looks back on the week's business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they talk about another the September jobs report, a massive production cut by OPEC+, and what is happening in crypto markets. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.
07-10-2022 13:59 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks tumbled as job strength remains, which means we most likely won’t be seeing a Fed downshift at the next FOMC meeting in November. Treasury yields rose alongside the US dollar after another solid nonfarm payroll report.
The risks of the Fed remaining aggressive with the tightening of monetary policy still remains on the table.
07-10-2022 09:58 GMT
by Edward Moya
US
It is now all about inflation data. The focus was temporarily on the labour market but everyone knows that the Fed is primarily concerned with what is happening with inflation.
Wall Street will first get a look at producer prices on Wednesday and then CPI the next day. August data showed high inflation remains well-entrenched as shelter and food prices surged, while gas prices softened.
07-10-2022 09:55 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil gains driven by OPEC+
Crude prices held onto the majority of this week’s OPEC+ driven gains after the NFP report showed the labor market remains strong but is showing signs of cooling. A strong dollar is eating away at some crude’s weekly gains, but that won’t have a lasting impact.
OPEC+ showed their cards this week and that will keep oil markets very tight as we approach winter. OPEC+ has done whatever it takes and is now awaiting to see what the reaction will be from world leaders.
07-10-2022 09:53 GMT
by Edward Moya
USD/CAD has edged higher today. In the North American session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3712, down 0.25%.
Canada's Ivey PMI, a key barometer of the strength of the economy, underperformed in September.
07-10-2022 09:21 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD is unchanged today after a nasty two-day slide, trading at 0.9792 in the European session. The euro flirted with the symbolic parity line on Wednesday, but then plunged 200 points.
German retail sales underperforms
Germany wrapped up the week with soft data, although the euro shrugged off the weak numbers.
07-10-2022 08:45 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY has been hovering close to the 145 line most of the week, and the trend has continued today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.81, down 0.21%.
The US releases nonfarm payrolls later today.
07-10-2022 04:29 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Equity markets are on course to spend a third day in the red despite a strong start to the week as investors adopt a cautious approach ahead of the US jobs report.
Amid all of the chaos this week, investors have always had one eye on the jobs report later today. Even earlier in the week when equity markets were rallying strongly, there was always a sense that the jobs report could spoil the party.
And not because it could point to cracks appearing in the labour market; quite the opposite in fact
07-10-2022 03:27 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil rallies 10% this week amid OPEC+ cut
Oil prices appear to have steadied after bursting higher over the last week in anticipation of and reaction to the massive production cut announced by OPEC+ on Wednesday. Brent and WTI are more than 10% higher on the week after the alliance cut output targets by two million barrels per day.
While the net effect will be much smaller, maybe half or less, due to the inability of numerous members to actually hit previously agreed targets, it is still consider
07-10-2022 03:15 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the recent recovery in gold and questions whether it will continue.
06-10-2022 16:15 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US stocks bounced around on payrolls eve, digesting another round of hawkish Fed speak. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signaled there is no Fed pivot coming until financial conditions worsen significantly from here. Kashkari said the Fed will keep hiking rates to bring inflation and that they are “quite a ways away” from pausing their tightening cycle.
06-10-2022 13:25 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil
It is getting hard to bet against higher crude prices. This week’s OPEC+ decision was a game changer for the oil market, as it signals tight conditions will remain throughout this winter. Energy traders are not really believing that the Biden administration will be able to do anything quickly to stop the rally in oil prices.
The NOPEC bill seems like it has a lot of barriers and won’t be an immediate course of action. The SPR has been tapped already and the US is dangerously depleting in
06-10-2022 13:18 GMT
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%.
06-10-2022 10:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Equity markets have erased early gains to trade in the red on Thursday, as investors take a cautious approach ahead of Friday's jobs report.
The narrative in recent days of weaker data being positive as it could be a precursor to slower tightening didn't seem sustainable and it's already proving to be the case. I think it was more a reflection of the steep sell-off in the markets and the performance of risk assets in general over the six weeks previous, rather than the data.
06-10-2022 09:31 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OPEC+ boosts oil prices after large cut
Oil prices are edging lower today after OPEC+ announced a huge production cut on Wednesday of two million barrels per day. With the group failing to hit output targets by a widening margin as the year has progressed, the net cut will be around half that, if not less, but that's still a substantial reduction in an already tight market.
Of course, the global economy is slowing as a result of an inflation and interest rate shock - which soaring oil prices and
06-10-2022 09:19 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, up 0.49%.
Canada releases Ivey PMI for September later today, with the markets anticipating another solid release.
06-10-2022 09:01 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
NZD/USD started the day with gains but has reversed directions and is sharply lower in the North American session. The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5657, down 1.38%.
RBNZ raises rates by 0.50%
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 0.50% hike, bringing the benchmark to 3.50%, its highest level since 2015.
06-10-2022 07:08 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD started the week with huge gains, but has been in calm waters since then. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6478, up 0.17%.
Retail sales points to slowing economy
The RBA's sharp tightening is having an effect on economic growth.
06-10-2022 05:19 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The economy is too strong for the Fed to pivot. The strong start to October is over after both a private payroll report and service sector data reminded investors how strong some parts of the economy remain.
05-10-2022 14:10 GMT
by Edward Moya