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Is the UK already in recession?
One eye on the Fed minutes? Stock markets are recovering slightly on Wednesday after another volatile start to the week. It's clear this week that investors have one eye on the US, with Fed minutes this evening, US inflation data tomorrow and the start of earnings season likely to be the primary drivers into Friday's close. Any hope of a helping hand from the Fed minutes may not be forthcoming, with the commentary to an extent outdated at this point and policymakers seemingly unified in their
12-10-2022 09:35 GMT by Craig Erlam
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US Open: Stocks drop as yields rise, IMF warning, Chip stocks crushed on curbs, King Dollar advance stalls, Crude lower on demand fears, Gold still vulnerable, Bitcoin holds onto $19k for now, Google partners with Coinbase
Tech stocks are hovering near 2-year lows on bond market chaos and expectations for a gloomy earnings season. ​ Investors are nervous after this week's inflation data, Fed tightening calls will demand for more aggressive hikes beyond November and that we could be seeing another major round of selling. ​ The IMF slashed their global growth outlook and warned that the ‘worst is yet to come’.
11-10-2022 09:54 GMT by Edward Moya
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Will GDP shake up GBP/USD?
GBP/USD is trading quietly for a second straight day. In the North European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1035, down 0.18%. The pound has not posted a winning day since October 12th and has lost 400 points during that time.
11-10-2022 04:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Increasingly pessimistic
European stock markets are poised for another weak open as much of Asia reopened on Tuesday to large declines. Asia is flashing red as it nears the close and Europe may be facing a similarly bleak day. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon didn't hold back in his assessment of the economic outlook, adding to the warnings of the IMF and World Bank, among many others.
11-10-2022 03:20 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil eases, gold takes a tumble
Oil eases amid more recession warnings Oil prices are paring recent gains for the second day as the IMF and World Bank warn of an increased risk of a global recession. Those warnings won't come as an enormous surprise given the immense economic headwinds as a result of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not to mention the baffling decision by OPEC+ last week to cut output by two million barrels per day which will only add to them. Oil prices rose around 20% from their September lows
11-10-2022 03:16 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil still pushing, Gold slides, bitcoin struggles
Oil higher despite weak Chinese PMI Oil prices are continuing to edge higher at the start of the week, albeit at a much slower pace with Brent now not far from $100 a barrel. OPEC+ may be comfortable with that after slashing output targets by two million barrels per day but I'm not sure anyone else will be. The Chinese PMI data overnight highlighted the challenges facing the world's largest crude importer as it tries to balance its zero-Covid policy with economic growth.
10-10-2022 12:56 GMT by Craig Erlam
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A flat start to the week
Struggling to bounce back We're seeing mild risk aversion in the markets at the start of the week, perhaps some apprehension ahead of what could be a big few days for the US. The jobs report on Friday remained strong which supports the view that the Fed won't yet ease off the brake, much to the dismay of equity investors. They may still be hoping that this week's inflation data will swing the central bank but given previous comments, that doesn't appear realistic unless we see a significant miss
10-10-2022 12:47 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Market Insights Podcast (Episode 384)
Jonny Hart looks back on the week's business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they talk about another the September jobs report, a massive production cut by OPEC+, and what is happening in crypto markets.  They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.
07-10-2022 13:59 GMT by Edward Moya
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NFP react: labor market remains robust, Fed can stick to hawkish shtick, dollar strength, cryptos soften post jobs data
US stocks tumbled as job strength remains, which means we most likely won’t be seeing a Fed downshift at the next FOMC meeting in November. ​ Treasury yields rose alongside the US dollar after another solid nonfarm payroll report. ​ The risks of the Fed remaining aggressive with the tightening of monetary policy still remains on the table.
07-10-2022 09:58 GMT by Edward Moya
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Week Ahead - Earnings season is back
US It is now all about inflation data.  The focus was temporarily on the labour market but everyone knows that the Fed is primarily concerned with what is happening with inflation.  Wall Street will first get a look at producer prices on Wednesday and then CPI the next day. August data showed high inflation remains well-entrenched as shelter and food prices surged, while gas prices softened.
07-10-2022 09:55 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil’s big week, gold declines
Oil gains driven by OPEC+ Crude prices held onto the majority of this week’s OPEC+ driven gains after the NFP report showed the labor market remains strong but is showing signs of cooling. A strong dollar is eating away at some crude’s weekly gains, but that won’t have a lasting impact. ​ OPEC+ showed their cards this week and that will keep oil markets very tight as we approach winter. ​ OPEC+ has done whatever it takes and is now awaiting to see what the reaction will be from world leaders.
07-10-2022 09:53 GMT by Edward Moya
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Canadian dollar dips after job reports
USD/CAD has edged higher today. In the North American session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3712, down 0.25%. Canada's Ivey PMI, a key barometer of the strength of the economy, underperformed in September.
07-10-2022 09:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro dips after solid US jobs report
EUR/USD is unchanged today after a nasty two-day slide, trading at 0.9792 in the European session. The euro flirted with the symbolic parity line on Wednesday, but then plunged 200 points. German retail sales underperforms Germany wrapped up the week with soft data, although the euro shrugged off the weak numbers.
07-10-2022 08:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY eyes US nonfarm payrolls
USD/JPY has been hovering close to the 145 line most of the week, and the trend has continued today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.81, down 0.21%. The US releases nonfarm payrolls later today.
07-10-2022 04:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Caution ahead of US jobs data
Equity markets are on course to spend a third day in the red despite a strong start to the week as investors adopt a cautious approach ahead of the US jobs report. Amid all of the chaos this week, investors have always had one eye on the jobs report later today. Even earlier in the week when equity markets were rallying strongly, there was always a sense that the jobs report could spoil the party. And not because it could point to cracks appearing in the labour market; quite the opposite in fact
07-10-2022 03:27 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil shines as OPEC cuts, gold eyes NFP
Oil rallies 10% this week amid OPEC+ cut Oil prices appear to have steadied after bursting higher over the last week in anticipation of and reaction to the massive production cut announced by OPEC+ on Wednesday. Brent and WTI are more than 10% higher on the week after the alliance cut output targets by two million barrels per day. While the net effect will be much smaller, maybe half or less, due to the inability of numerous members to actually hit previously agreed targets, it is still consider
07-10-2022 03:15 GMT by Craig Erlam
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