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Nikkei 225 Technical: Overstretched rally

Nikkei 225 has hit a 33-year high with a 2023 YTD return of +29%. Its 3-month up move has reached overstretched condition, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day moving average for three consecutive days. At the risk of a corrective pull-back with short-term bullish momentum dissipating. Fig 1: Japan 225 short-term trend as of 15 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 16 March 2023 low, the Japanese benchmark cash stock index, Nikkei 225 has staged a ma

15-06-2023 00:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro strength headed into ECB policy meeting

The euro survived a hawkish Fed pause and now faces an ECB rate decision that should contain a rate hike and a promise for more. The ECB is expected to raise all three of its key rates by 25bps, which would bring the main refinancing rate to 4.o0%. The ECB will also update their staff projections, which should show some weakness and potentially signal they are nearing the end of their tightening cycle.

14-06-2023 16:32 GMT by Edward Moya

Powell tried to have a very hawkish Fed day

Fed held interest rates steady after 10 straight increases Fed Dot plots show two more small rate hikes are expected but swap futures only price in one rate increase Hawkish FOMC statement and projections undone as Powell was unable to convince markets that 2 more increases will likely happen US stocks initially tumbled after the Fed tried to deliver a very hawkish skip. A unanimous vote to pause the Fed’s rate hiking campaign also included a very hawkish dot plot.

14-06-2023 16:03 GMT by Edward Moya

All eyes on the Fed, bitcoin struggling

The big day has finally arrived and investors are seemingly in quite an upbeat mood going into the Fed interest rate decision. The inflation data on Tuesday appears to have settled any remaining Fed nerves with markets now pricing in more than a 90% chance that the central bank leaves rates unchanged. That seems a little overconfident given the data as a whole still paints quite a resilient and stubborn picture which could result in markets being caught out by a final hike, especially following

14-06-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil rebound continues, gold tentatively higher

Oil rebound continues but it remains in the middle of its lower range Oil is continuing to rebound today as technicals combined with promising developments in the US and China lift it off its lows. Brent was treading close to its 2023 lows, where it has fallen on a few occasions in recent months prior to this week.

14-06-2023 12:04 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar soars ahead of expected Fed pause

Fed is widely expected to hold off increasing rates New Zealand GDP is expected to decline marginally NZD/USD jumps 1.3% The New Zealand dollar has surged today as the markets anxiously await the Fed rate decision later in the day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6229, up 1.36%. Will Fed pause as expected? All eyes are fixated on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to pause its rate hikes after increasing rates ten straight times.

14-06-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD rally continues, Fed decision looms

Fed expected to pause rates Australian dollar powers higher Australia releases employment report on Thursday The Australian dollar continues to gain ground and is trading at 0.6795, up 0.42%. The Aussie has been red-hot in June, gaining 4.4%. Australia releases the May employment report early Thursday.

14-06-2023 08:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound extends gains, Fed decision looms

US inflation dips Federal Reserve expected to pause rates BoE feels pressure after sizzling UK jobs report The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2645, up 0.27%.

14-06-2023 07:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Today’s FOMC will be a key focus for China and Hong Kong stocks

China proxies; Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng TECH, and Hang Seng China Enterprises have outperformed S&P 500 & MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan since 31 May. This outperformance has been reinforced by more impending monetary policy easing measures from China’s central bank, PBoC. The key risk to derail the current bout of animal spirits in China and Hong Kong stocks will be a further upward trajectory of the USD/CNH (offshore yuan). China’s top policymakers are now in a “heightened state of alert” m

14-06-2023 03:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Must the BoE now consider larger rate hikes? Fed on course to pause? Oil bounces back

A truly devastating jobs report for BoE policymakers It's not often that you would refer to a jobs report that delivers a drop in unemployment, record employment and a rise in wages as horrible, but that is exactly what the Bank of England will be feeling today. The central bank has raised interest rates for the last 12 meetings in a row and yet the economy is showing the kind of resilience that few would have anticipated. This creates an enormous headache for the MPC as it desperately wants t

13-06-2023 14:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil bounces back, gold slips after CPI report

Oil bounces back amid more favourable developments Oil prices are staging a comeback today, perhaps buoyed by the softer inflation data which may open the door to the end of the Fed's tightening cycle and enable the soft landing it always hoped for. That said, there may be a technical element to it as well, with the price having traded around its 2023 lows in the run-up to the release. There was always likely to be two bullish cases for crude and this only slightly aids one of those.

13-06-2023 14:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD rises to 2-week high as US inflation falls

US inflation falls to 4.0% Fed widely expected to pause rates on Wednesday ECB projected to raise rate on Thursday EUR/USD is in positive territory on Tuesday, trading at 1.0803, up 0.42% on the day. US inflation falls to 4.0% The US dollar is down on Tuesday as US inflation eased in May. CPI dropped from 4.9% to 4.0%, just below the consensus of 4.1%, its lowest level since March 2021.

13-06-2023 13:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rallies on China stimulus, gold higher on weaker dollar

Commodities get a boost as China weighs broad stimulus Gold's Triple Top still holds Dollar tumbles as Fed rate hike odds drop to 9.6% for Wednesday's meeting Oil Crude prices got a boost after China prepared a broad package of stimulus. A surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate sent a message to traders that the world’s second-largest economy is finally going to get significant stimulus that should help with their struggling post-COVID recovery.

13-06-2023 12:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Cooling inflation report supports a June skip for the Fed, which could become a July pause, cryptos waver

Wall Street confident on Fed hawkish skip Headline inflation drops to 4.0% and expected to continue to fall in June US Treasury 10-year yields rises 9.9 basis points to 3.835% A cooling inflation report is fueling this bull market as the Fed should have no problem skipping a rate hike on Wednesday. Wall Street is becoming a little bit hopeful here that an FOMC June skip could eventually become a July pause. Inflation is mostly heading lower and some of the leading indicators (car wholesale

13-06-2023 12:05 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation drops

UK job numbers shine US inflation falls to 4% Fed widely expected to pause rates The British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. UK job market flexes muscles The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected. The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000.

13-06-2023 09:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Potential breakdown to resume short-term downtrend

In the past 3 weeks, Gold (XAU/USD) has been evolving with a minor “Descending Triangle” with its range support at US$1,940. Price actions have failed to surpass the 50-day moving average now acting as a resistance at US$1,991. Short-term downtrend phase from the 4 May 2023 high remains intact. Fig 1: Gold (XAU/USD) major trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) short-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge ch

13-06-2023 04:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Aussie edges higher despite lukewarm confidence data, US inflation next

Australian consumer confidence holds steady, business confidence falls US inflation expected to ease Inflation release could be a game-changer for Fed decision on Wednesday The Australian dollar remains on a roll and is trading at 0.6775, up 0.35% on the day. The Aussie has been a tear in June, surging 4.15% against the US dollar. Australia released lukewarm confidence data today, but that didn't put a crimp in the Australian dollar's upswing, which has continued for a fourth straight day.

13-06-2023 04:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Squeezed up ahead of CPI and FOMC

The mega-cap tech Nasdaq 100 resumed its daily outperformance over the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell 2000. It closed at a 15-month high. 14,540 is the key short-term support to watch. Fig 1: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: US Nas 100 short-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Once again, the bullish tone of the Nasdaq 100 which is heavily concentrated in the mega-cap technology-related s

13-06-2023 00:07 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil shorts are in control, Gold and Bitcoin remain heavy

Oil's 4% drop takes prices to a three-month low Gold lower but still holding key range Bitcoin remains heavy as some traders move to DeFi exchanges Oil Oil has easily become a favorite short on Wall Street. The oil market doesn't appear like it will get tight anytime soon on fears that China’s weak post-COVID recovery won’t be improving anytime soon and as Russia continues to sell more oil to China and India. In addition to all the bearish drivers, some notable oil bulls are abandoning their a

12-06-2023 15:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Bull market rally continues ahead of CPI and the Fed

Tech trade remains strong, sending the S&P 500 to a 13-month high Ahead of the May inflation report, Fed swaps are pricing a 23.8% chance the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday Dollar and Treasury yields edge higher US stocks are rallying ahead of a massive macro week that contains a key inflation reading, some major central bank rate decisions, and many important economic readings. The bull market rally looks like it doesn’t want to stop, which means Wall Street appears confident that the F

12-06-2023 15:32 GMT by Edward Moya

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