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Bull market rally continues ahead of CPI and the Fed

Tech trade remains strong, sending the S&P 500 to a 13-month high Ahead of the May inflation report, Fed swaps are pricing a 23.8% chance the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday Dollar and Treasury yields edge higher US stocks are rallying ahead of a massive macro week that contains a key inflation reading, some major central bank rate decisions, and many important economic readings. The bull market rally looks like it doesn’t want to stop, which means Wall Street appears confident that the F

12-06-2023 15:32 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro drifts higher with eye on German Economic Sentiment, US Inflation

There are no tier-1 events in the eurozone or the US today German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected to decline further on Tuesday US releases CPI on Tuesday, Fed rate decision on Wednesday The euro is showing little movement on Monday trading at 1.0755, up 0.05% on the day. German confidence expected to drop Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday and the index is expected to decline to -13.1 in June, down from -10.7 in May. The index fell into negative territory for the first time

12-06-2023 11:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD loses ground, markets eye UK employment and US CPI data

There are no UK or US tier-1 releases on Monday On Tuesday, UK releases jobs data and BoE's Bailey testifies before House of Lords committee US releases inflation data on Tuesday, with Fed rate announcement on Wednesday The British pound has started the week quietly. Tuesday promises to be busy, with key releases on both sides of the pond.

12-06-2023 08:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar keeps rolling, Aussie confidence data next

AUD/USD continues to rally Australia to release business, consumer confidence on Tuesday US to release inflation on Tuesday, FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to rally and is higher on Monday, trading at 0.6766, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week with gains of 2.1%.

12-06-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Be wary of the new bull market of SP 500

The key US benchmark stock index, S&P 500 has entered a new bull market. Market breadth has seen some signs of improvement as prior cyclical laggards; Energy, Industrials, and Financials sectors outperformed last week. Several elements such as rising sovereign bond yields, a steeper US Treasury yield curve inversion, and underperformance of Quality and Momentum beta factors raise concerns about the sustainability of the current bull market. Last week, the key US benchmark stock index, S&P 500

12-06-2023 04:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Time for the Fed but first, it's US inflation

The main event of the week is the FOMC decision, but before we get there, the May inflation report should show that inflation is cooling. Pricing pressures should ease as gasoline prices tumble and as demand destruction starts to become apparent in the data. The negative base effects start to help send the headline year-over-year inflation reading closer to 4.0%.

09-06-2023 18:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - A new bull market, China growth concerns, Bitcoin dominance

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the start of the start of a new bull market, China's inflation data, Canada's employment report, and recap this week in crypto.

09-06-2023 12:50 GMT by Edward Moya

European gas futures surge on supply concerns

Energy Department plans to buy an additional 3 million barrels of crude for the SPR Europe Natural Gas surges on supply concerns and US gas ends 5-day rally 10 - Treasury yield rises 2.9bps to 3.747%

09-06-2023 12:42 GMT by Edward Moya

The stock market bulls are back

Vanda Research: Retail traders return with an average flow of $1.36 billion a day over past week Tesla rallies for an 11th straight session Fed rate hike odds for Wednesday's meeting stand at 30.1% slightly higher from yesterday and roughly 7 points higher than a week ago. After a tough grind to bull-market territory, US stocks are incrementally edging higher on some corporate news and after a soft Canadian jobs report helped push global bond yields lower. With the S&P 500 entering bull market

09-06-2023 12:35 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD- Canadian dollar extends gains despite weak job data

Canada's economy sheds 17K jobs, unemployment rate climbs US dollar under pressure after unemployment claims jump Canadian dollar rallies for a third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3328 in the North American session, down 0.22% on the day. Canada's labour market softens The week wrapped up with Canada's May employment report, which usually is released at the same time as the US job data, but had the spotlight to itself today.

09-06-2023 10:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar soars as US unemployment claims jump

AUD/USD soars after US jobless claims surprise Chinese CPI and PPI decline in May

09-06-2023 04:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: Rallied to 6-month high

AUD/JPY has staged a bullish breakout from its major descending channel and traded back above its 200-day moving average. Short-term momentum remains positive supported by the 1-hour RSI oscillator. Key short-term support to watch for AUD/JPY is at 92.70. The ongoing 11-week up move from the 24 March 2023 low of 86.06 seen in the AUD/JPY has been reinforced by several positive technical elements; the cross pair has rallied by 755 pips (+8.8%) from its 24 March 2023 low to today’s current intrad

09-06-2023 04:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Swiss franc soars on SNB warning, US jobless claims

SNB's Jordan hints at a June rate hike US jobless claims jump Swiss franc climbs 1.2% The Swiss franc is showing limited movement on Friday, trading at 0.8998. On Thursday, the Swissie surged higher, gaining 1.2%. SNB's Jordan signals more rate hikes are coming It seems that Swiss National Bank head Thomas Jordan doesn't miss an opportunity to warn the markets that inflation is too high in Switzerland.

09-06-2023 03:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index Technical: Potential breakout from channel resistance

Hang Seng Index has traded back above its key 200-day moving average. Positive short-term momentum has resurfaced in the past 5 days. Price actions are now hovering right below a medium-term channel resistance at 19,780. Fig 1: Hong Kong 33 4-hour trend as of 9 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) This a following-up post on our earlier analysis, “China and HK equities may see the return of positive animal spirits” published on 7 June (click here for more details). In the

08-06-2023 21:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil in choppy waters, gold eyes US inflation and the Fed

Oil remains volatile but below pre-US regional banking crisis range It's been a very choppy week in oil markets, with traders forced to digest the latest compromise deal from OPEC+ against the backdrop of more interest rate hikes and dampening prospects for the global economy. Resilience in the economy now is impressive but the longer it lasts, the more it will be met with higher interest rates that could ultimately deliver a harder landing. That oil failed to break back into the band it was tra

08-06-2023 13:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

Jobless claims may offer well-timed comfort for the Federal Reserve

European stocks ended the day relatively flat while tech is enjoying a bounce in the US on the back of a spike in jobless claims, perhaps an early sign of the labor market weakening. A well-timed spike in US jobless claims Jobless claims spiked last week in what could be the start of another trend higher after stabilizing over the last few months. Claims had been expected to rise much earlier than this but for one reason or another, they've stayed remarkably steady.

08-06-2023 13:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD - Loonie strengthens after surprise BoC rate hike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in USDCAD after the Bank of Canada surprised markets by restarting its tightening cycle.

08-06-2023 12:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro surges as US unemployment claims rise sharply

US jobless claims jump to 261,000 Eurozone GDP posts back-to-back quarterly declines EUR/USD climbs sharply

08-06-2023 12:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Stocks rise after larger-than-expect jump in jobless claims

Wall Street is clearly in waiting-on-the-Fed mode, but optimism is growing that the Fed might end up being done with their rate hiking cycle. The data-dependent Fed has locked themselves into a skip and that seems to be mostly priced in. Even if we get a somewhat hot inflation report next week, they are likely to keep rates steady at the June 14th meeting. Now that we are seeing weakness in the service sector and overall softness is emerging in the labor market, we should anticipate that the i

08-06-2023 11:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar edges higher as BoC hikes rates

Bank of Canada raises rates by 25 basis points US unemployment claims surprise to the upside Canada releases employment report on Friday The Canadian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday, after posting gains for two straight days. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3346, down 0.22% on the day.

08-06-2023 09:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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