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Must the BoE now consider larger rate hikes? Fed on course to pause? Oil bounces back

A truly devastating jobs report for BoE policymakers It's not often that you would refer to a jobs report that delivers a drop in unemployment, record employment and a rise in wages as horrible, but that is exactly what the Bank of England will be feeling today. The central bank has raised interest rates for the last 12 meetings in a row and yet the economy is showing the kind of resilience that few would have anticipated. This creates an enormous headache for the MPC as it desperately wants t

13-06-2023 14:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil bounces back, gold slips after CPI report

Oil bounces back amid more favourable developments Oil prices are staging a comeback today, perhaps buoyed by the softer inflation data which may open the door to the end of the Fed's tightening cycle and enable the soft landing it always hoped for. That said, there may be a technical element to it as well, with the price having traded around its 2023 lows in the run-up to the release. There was always likely to be two bullish cases for crude and this only slightly aids one of those.

13-06-2023 14:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD rises to 2-week high as US inflation falls

US inflation falls to 4.0% Fed widely expected to pause rates on Wednesday ECB projected to raise rate on Thursday EUR/USD is in positive territory on Tuesday, trading at 1.0803, up 0.42% on the day. US inflation falls to 4.0% The US dollar is down on Tuesday as US inflation eased in May. CPI dropped from 4.9% to 4.0%, just below the consensus of 4.1%, its lowest level since March 2021.

13-06-2023 13:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rallies on China stimulus, gold higher on weaker dollar

Commodities get a boost as China weighs broad stimulus Gold's Triple Top still holds Dollar tumbles as Fed rate hike odds drop to 9.6% for Wednesday's meeting Oil Crude prices got a boost after China prepared a broad package of stimulus. A surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate sent a message to traders that the world’s second-largest economy is finally going to get significant stimulus that should help with their struggling post-COVID recovery.

13-06-2023 12:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Cooling inflation report supports a June skip for the Fed, which could become a July pause, cryptos waver

Wall Street confident on Fed hawkish skip Headline inflation drops to 4.0% and expected to continue to fall in June US Treasury 10-year yields rises 9.9 basis points to 3.835% A cooling inflation report is fueling this bull market as the Fed should have no problem skipping a rate hike on Wednesday. Wall Street is becoming a little bit hopeful here that an FOMC June skip could eventually become a July pause. Inflation is mostly heading lower and some of the leading indicators (car wholesale

13-06-2023 12:05 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation drops

UK job numbers shine US inflation falls to 4% Fed widely expected to pause rates The British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. UK job market flexes muscles The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected. The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000.

13-06-2023 09:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Potential breakdown to resume short-term downtrend

In the past 3 weeks, Gold (XAU/USD) has been evolving with a minor “Descending Triangle” with its range support at US$1,940. Price actions have failed to surpass the 50-day moving average now acting as a resistance at US$1,991. Short-term downtrend phase from the 4 May 2023 high remains intact. Fig 1: Gold (XAU/USD) major trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) short-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge ch

13-06-2023 04:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Aussie edges higher despite lukewarm confidence data, US inflation next

Australian consumer confidence holds steady, business confidence falls US inflation expected to ease Inflation release could be a game-changer for Fed decision on Wednesday The Australian dollar remains on a roll and is trading at 0.6775, up 0.35% on the day. The Aussie has been a tear in June, surging 4.15% against the US dollar. Australia released lukewarm confidence data today, but that didn't put a crimp in the Australian dollar's upswing, which has continued for a fourth straight day.

13-06-2023 04:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Squeezed up ahead of CPI and FOMC

The mega-cap tech Nasdaq 100 resumed its daily outperformance over the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell 2000. It closed at a 15-month high. 14,540 is the key short-term support to watch. Fig 1: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: US Nas 100 short-term trend as of 13 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Once again, the bullish tone of the Nasdaq 100 which is heavily concentrated in the mega-cap technology-related s

13-06-2023 00:07 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil shorts are in control, Gold and Bitcoin remain heavy

Oil's 4% drop takes prices to a three-month low Gold lower but still holding key range Bitcoin remains heavy as some traders move to DeFi exchanges Oil Oil has easily become a favorite short on Wall Street. The oil market doesn't appear like it will get tight anytime soon on fears that China’s weak post-COVID recovery won’t be improving anytime soon and as Russia continues to sell more oil to China and India. In addition to all the bearish drivers, some notable oil bulls are abandoning their a

12-06-2023 15:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Bull market rally continues ahead of CPI and the Fed

Tech trade remains strong, sending the S&P 500 to a 13-month high Ahead of the May inflation report, Fed swaps are pricing a 23.8% chance the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday Dollar and Treasury yields edge higher US stocks are rallying ahead of a massive macro week that contains a key inflation reading, some major central bank rate decisions, and many important economic readings. The bull market rally looks like it doesn’t want to stop, which means Wall Street appears confident that the F

12-06-2023 15:32 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro drifts higher with eye on German Economic Sentiment, US Inflation

There are no tier-1 events in the eurozone or the US today German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected to decline further on Tuesday US releases CPI on Tuesday, Fed rate decision on Wednesday The euro is showing little movement on Monday trading at 1.0755, up 0.05% on the day. German confidence expected to drop Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday and the index is expected to decline to -13.1 in June, down from -10.7 in May. The index fell into negative territory for the first time

12-06-2023 11:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD loses ground, markets eye UK employment and US CPI data

There are no UK or US tier-1 releases on Monday On Tuesday, UK releases jobs data and BoE's Bailey testifies before House of Lords committee US releases inflation data on Tuesday, with Fed rate announcement on Wednesday The British pound has started the week quietly. Tuesday promises to be busy, with key releases on both sides of the pond.

12-06-2023 08:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar keeps rolling, Aussie confidence data next

AUD/USD continues to rally Australia to release business, consumer confidence on Tuesday US to release inflation on Tuesday, FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to rally and is higher on Monday, trading at 0.6766, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week with gains of 2.1%.

12-06-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Be wary of the new bull market of SP 500

The key US benchmark stock index, S&P 500 has entered a new bull market. Market breadth has seen some signs of improvement as prior cyclical laggards; Energy, Industrials, and Financials sectors outperformed last week. Several elements such as rising sovereign bond yields, a steeper US Treasury yield curve inversion, and underperformance of Quality and Momentum beta factors raise concerns about the sustainability of the current bull market. Last week, the key US benchmark stock index, S&P 500

12-06-2023 04:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Time for the Fed but first, it's US inflation

The main event of the week is the FOMC decision, but before we get there, the May inflation report should show that inflation is cooling. Pricing pressures should ease as gasoline prices tumble and as demand destruction starts to become apparent in the data. The negative base effects start to help send the headline year-over-year inflation reading closer to 4.0%.

09-06-2023 18:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - A new bull market, China growth concerns, Bitcoin dominance

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the start of the start of a new bull market, China's inflation data, Canada's employment report, and recap this week in crypto.

09-06-2023 12:50 GMT by Edward Moya

European gas futures surge on supply concerns

Energy Department plans to buy an additional 3 million barrels of crude for the SPR Europe Natural Gas surges on supply concerns and US gas ends 5-day rally 10 - Treasury yield rises 2.9bps to 3.747%

09-06-2023 12:42 GMT by Edward Moya

The stock market bulls are back

Vanda Research: Retail traders return with an average flow of $1.36 billion a day over past week Tesla rallies for an 11th straight session Fed rate hike odds for Wednesday's meeting stand at 30.1% slightly higher from yesterday and roughly 7 points higher than a week ago. After a tough grind to bull-market territory, US stocks are incrementally edging higher on some corporate news and after a soft Canadian jobs report helped push global bond yields lower. With the S&P 500 entering bull market

09-06-2023 12:35 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD- Canadian dollar extends gains despite weak job data

Canada's economy sheds 17K jobs, unemployment rate climbs US dollar under pressure after unemployment claims jump Canadian dollar rallies for a third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3328 in the North American session, down 0.22% on the day. Canada's labour market softens The week wrapped up with Canada's May employment report, which usually is released at the same time as the US job data, but had the spotlight to itself today.

09-06-2023 10:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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