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USD/JPY: Dollar rallies as Fed sees significant upside risks with inflation
Fed officials at the June 26th meeting saw significant upside risks A couple of officials wanted to keep rates on hold Before the Minutes release the yen fell to levels that triggered intervention last September At 3am Tokyo time (2pm NY), Japanese officials watched the yen weaken to the dollar following the release of the Fed Minutes.  The dollar index hit a two-month low as Fed officials remain worried about inflation and are still positioned to deliver more tightening.  Only two Fed voters w
16-08-2023 14:31 GMT by Edward Moya
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GBP/USD pushes higher as inflation drops to 6.8%
UK inflation drops but core rate remains steady US dollar gets lift from strong retail sales The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2754, up 0.39%. UK inflation drops sharply but core CPI unchanged The UK released the July inflation report today and the readings were a mixed bag.
16-08-2023 10:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/AUD: Bullish run extends as England ends Matildas mania
UK core inflation remains elevated at 6.9% and above the consensus estimate of 6.8% BOE expected to raise rates another by almost 75 bps more in this tightening cycle Aussie downside extends over China's economic struggles World Cup Final Match Set England has advanced to its first Women’s World Cup final with a 3-1 victory over co-host Australia.  Soccer mania was embraced in Australia as the women’s soccer team’s put up an impressive run that fell two wins short of becoming champions.  The Ma
16-08-2023 10:22 GMT by Edward Moya
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New Zealand dollar rises after RBNZ maintains cash rate
RBNZ holds cash rate at 5.5%, as expected New Zealand dollar stems slide The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain interest rate levels. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5965, up 0.25%.
16-08-2023 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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NZD/USD Technical: Minor downtrend intact ahead of RBNZ
The Kiwi is the worst-performing currency among the majors where it depreciated by -7.1% against the USD on a rolling one-month basis. RBNZ Is expected to maintain its OCR at 5.50% since the last interest hike in May. Watch the key medium-term support of 0.5900/5860 where the downside momentum of NZD/USD may start to pause after declining for six months. New Zealand central bank, RBNZ will announce its latest monetary policy decision today at 0200 GMT.
15-08-2023 21:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD rises despite quickening Canadian CPI; Commodities stumble except for Natural Gas
Headline Canadian inflation surges above BOC's 1-3% target range Mixed report as core inflation falls to 9-month low European Natural Gas skyrockets on fears Aussie labor strikes could disrupt 10% of global LNG exports Canadian CPI The Canadian dollar initially rallied after the July inflation rose back the Bank of Canada’s inflation-control target range of 1% to 3%. ​ This was not entirely hot as both core readings remained subdued.
15-08-2023 13:02 GMT by Edward Moya
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GBP/USD: BOE to hike further after hot wage data, US stocks struggle on China and banking concerns
Record UK wage growth keeps the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening PBOC rate cut surprise shows officials growing concern with the property crisis Fitch warns US banks could face downgrades Record wage growth will keep the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening. The economy still has a tight labor market as companies need to pay their employees more money.  The rise in the unemployment rate was due to more people returning to the workforce.  Average pay excluding bonuses
15-08-2023 12:31 GMT by Edward Moya
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Canadian dollar steady despite rise in inflation
Canada's inflation rises to 3.3% US retail sales climb 0.7%, core rate soars 1% The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3477, up 0.13%. Canada's inflation jumps Canada released the July inflation report earlier today.
15-08-2023 11:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD shrugs off mixed employment report
UK job growth falls but wages soar UK releases CPI on Wednesday The British pound has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2697, up 0.08%. UK job market cools but wages jump Investors were treated to a mixed UK employment report today.
15-08-2023 08:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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WTI Oil Technical: Time for a potential short-term pullback
Recent bullish breakout from “Descending Wedge” has led to a 10% rally to reach a medium-term resistance zone of US$83.80/84.90. Technical elements are now advocating a potential corrective pull-back with supports coming in at US$79.80 and US$77.20. Today’s surprise three interest rate cuts by China’s central bank, PBoC has triggered a risk-off behaviour in cross-assets (FX, stock indices, commodities) via a negative reflexivity feedback loop. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “
15-08-2023 08:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Australian dollar extends losses as wage growth falls
Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth eases to 3.2% China's retail sales decline The Australian dollar hasn't recorded a winning daily session in over a week and is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.28%.
15-08-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential minor countertrend rebound
Prior 5-day decline has reached short-term oversold condition right at a 14,950 key minor support. Positive price action follow-through seen yesterday has increased the odds of a minor countertrend rebound scenario within a short to medium downtrend phase. Watch the key short-term pivotal support at 15,180. Nasdaq 100 minor short-term trend as of 15 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Short-term beari
15-08-2023 01:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows
US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile.  It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year.  What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi
14-08-2023 15:45 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/CNH: Time to start paying attention to the yuan again
CNH (offshore yuan) eyes 2023 lows as property sector concerns drive contagion fears China's top Wealth Manager misses payment Country Garden suspends trading on onshore bonds The offshore yuan is becoming a trade that more people are starting to pay attention to on Wall Street. The outlook for China is turning rather bleak and that has made the yuan short an easy trade for some traders.  China was expected to hit 5% growth this year and that still could happen even with the property sector wei
14-08-2023 11:25 GMT by Edward Moya
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Japanese yen hits 9-month low
Japanese yen dips below 145 line Japan's GDP expected to expand by 3.2% US retail sales projected to rise by 0.4% The Japanese yen continues to slide. USD/JPY touched the symbolic 145 line on Friday and has moved higher on Monday.
14-08-2023 10:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD steady ahead of jobs data
UK wages expected to accelerate by 7.9% US retail sales projected to rise 0.4% The British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. UK wage growth expected to jump The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight.
14-08-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Aussie under pressure ahead of wage growth release
Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth expected to rise Chinese Industrial Production projected to remain unchanged The Australian dollar started the week by dropping 50 basis points but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, down 0.12%. It has been a rough ride lately for the Australian dollar.
14-08-2023 05:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY Technical: Lethargic bulls below 145.50
USD/JPY’s two weeks rally ex-post BoJ’s flexible YCC implementation has almost reached a key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10. Rising of concerns about another bout of verbal FX interventions from Ministry of Finance officials to talk down the USD/JPY at around the 145.00 psychological level. Short-term momentum has turned bearish, risk of downside mean reversion towards the 20-day moving average now acting as support at 141.85. The ex-post effect of Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s flexible 10-year Japa
14-08-2023 03:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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