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GBP/AUD: Bullish run extends as England ends Matildas mania

UK core inflation remains elevated at 6.9% and above the consensus estimate of 6.8% BOE expected to raise rates another by almost 75 bps more in this tightening cycle Aussie downside extends over China's economic struggles World Cup Final Match Set England has advanced to its first Women’s World Cup final with a 3-1 victory over co-host Australia. Soccer mania was embraced in Australia as the women’s soccer team’s put up an impressive run that fell two wins short of becoming champions. The Ma

16-08-2023 10:22 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar rises after RBNZ maintains cash rate

RBNZ holds cash rate at 5.5%, as expected New Zealand dollar stems slide The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain interest rate levels. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5965, up 0.25%.

16-08-2023 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD Technical: Minor downtrend intact ahead of RBNZ

The Kiwi is the worst-performing currency among the majors where it depreciated by -7.1% against the USD on a rolling one-month basis. RBNZ Is expected to maintain its OCR at 5.50% since the last interest hike in May. Watch the key medium-term support of 0.5900/5860 where the downside momentum of NZD/USD may start to pause after declining for six months. New Zealand central bank, RBNZ will announce its latest monetary policy decision today at 0200 GMT.

15-08-2023 21:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - US consumer resilient as retail sales bounce; Hot UK wages, Canada's mixed CPI report

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Nick Syiek (Trader Nick) to discuss the latest US retail sales report, UK wages, China's disappointing data and surprise cut, and commodities.

15-08-2023 13:49 GMT by Edward Moya

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USD/CAD rises despite quickening Canadian CPI; Commodities stumble except for Natural Gas

Headline Canadian inflation surges above BOC's 1-3% target range Mixed report as core inflation falls to 9-month low European Natural Gas skyrockets on fears Aussie labor strikes could disrupt 10% of global LNG exports Canadian CPI The Canadian dollar initially rallied after the July inflation rose back the Bank of Canada’s inflation-control target range of 1% to 3%. This was not entirely hot as both core readings remained subdued.

15-08-2023 13:02 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: BOE to hike further after hot wage data, US stocks struggle on China and banking concerns

Record UK wage growth keeps the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening PBOC rate cut surprise shows officials growing concern with the property crisis Fitch warns US banks could face downgrades Record wage growth will keep the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening. The economy still has a tight labor market as companies need to pay their employees more money. The rise in the unemployment rate was due to more people returning to the workforce. Average pay excluding bonuses

15-08-2023 12:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar steady despite rise in inflation

Canada's inflation rises to 3.3% US retail sales climb 0.7%, core rate soars 1% The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3477, up 0.13%. Canada's inflation jumps Canada released the July inflation report earlier today.

15-08-2023 11:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD shrugs off mixed employment report

UK job growth falls but wages soar UK releases CPI on Wednesday The British pound has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2697, up 0.08%. UK job market cools but wages jump Investors were treated to a mixed UK employment report today.

15-08-2023 08:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Time for a potential short-term pullback

Recent bullish breakout from “Descending Wedge” has led to a 10% rally to reach a medium-term resistance zone of US$83.80/84.90. Technical elements are now advocating a potential corrective pull-back with supports coming in at US$79.80 and US$77.20. Today’s surprise three interest rate cuts by China’s central bank, PBoC has triggered a risk-off behaviour in cross-assets (FX, stock indices, commodities) via a negative reflexivity feedback loop. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “

15-08-2023 08:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Australian dollar extends losses as wage growth falls

Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth eases to 3.2% China's retail sales decline The Australian dollar hasn't recorded a winning daily session in over a week and is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.28%.

15-08-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential minor countertrend rebound

Prior 5-day decline has reached short-term oversold condition right at a 14,950 key minor support. Positive price action follow-through seen yesterday has increased the odds of a minor countertrend rebound scenario within a short to medium downtrend phase. Watch the key short-term pivotal support at 15,180. Nasdaq 100 minor short-term trend as of 15 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Short-term beari

15-08-2023 01:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows

US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile. It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year. What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi

14-08-2023 15:45 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CNH: Time to start paying attention to the yuan again

CNH (offshore yuan) eyes 2023 lows as property sector concerns drive contagion fears China's top Wealth Manager misses payment Country Garden suspends trading on onshore bonds The offshore yuan is becoming a trade that more people are starting to pay attention to on Wall Street. The outlook for China is turning rather bleak and that has made the yuan short an easy trade for some traders. China was expected to hit 5% growth this year and that still could happen even with the property sector wei

14-08-2023 11:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen hits 9-month low

Japanese yen dips below 145 line Japan's GDP expected to expand by 3.2% US retail sales projected to rise by 0.4% The Japanese yen continues to slide. USD/JPY touched the symbolic 145 line on Friday and has moved higher on Monday.

14-08-2023 10:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD steady ahead of jobs data

UK wages expected to accelerate by 7.9% US retail sales projected to rise 0.4% The British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. UK wage growth expected to jump The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight.

14-08-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie under pressure ahead of wage growth release

Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth expected to rise Chinese Industrial Production projected to remain unchanged The Australian dollar started the week by dropping 50 basis points but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, down 0.12%. It has been a rough ride lately for the Australian dollar.

14-08-2023 05:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Lethargic bulls below 145.50

USD/JPY’s two weeks rally ex-post BoJ’s flexible YCC implementation has almost reached a key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10. Rising of concerns about another bout of verbal FX interventions from Ministry of Finance officials to talk down the USD/JPY at around the 145.00 psychological level. Short-term momentum has turned bearish, risk of downside mean reversion towards the 20-day moving average now acting as support at 141.85. The ex-post effect of Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s flexible 10-year Japa

14-08-2023 03:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

DJIA Technical: At the risk of shaping a minor downtrend

Key technical elements are showing signs of bullish exhaustion below the 35,650 resistance. Potential downside mean reversion to test the 50-day moving average now acting as a support at 34,510. In the past two weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been the outperformer among the major US benchmark stock indices, thanks to its lesser concentration of technology stocks that bore the brunt of the sell-off inflicted on the US stock market. For the week of 31 July and 7 August, the DJ

13-08-2023 21:41 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI

US With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day. Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and t

11-08-2023 15:12 GMT by Edward Moya

US stocks gyrate on hot PPI report and anchored inflation expectations; Oil rallies and gold softens

US stocks are mostly gyrating over economic data points and surveys that remind us that the disinflation process is going to struggle reaching the Fed’s 2% target. A slightly hotter-than-expected PPI report sent Treasury yields initially higher as Wall Street started to fret over a potential reacceleration with inflation. It is easy to make the hawkish case for the Fed as we are still expecting rising wages from labor disputes, higher energy prices, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.

11-08-2023 13:11 GMT by Edward Moya

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