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Australian dollar extends losses as wage growth falls
Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth eases to 3.2% China's retail sales decline The Australian dollar hasn't recorded a winning daily session in over a week and is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.28%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential minor countertrend rebound
Prior 5-day decline has reached short-term oversold condition right at a 14,950 key minor support. Positive price action follow-through seen yesterday has increased the odds of a minor countertrend rebound scenario within a short to medium downtrend phase. Watch the key short-term pivotal support at 15,180. Nasdaq 100 minor short-term trend as of 15 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Short-term beari
by Kelvin Wong
Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows
US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile.  It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year.  What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi
by Edward Moya
USD/CNH: Time to start paying attention to the yuan again
CNH (offshore yuan) eyes 2023 lows as property sector concerns drive contagion fears China's top Wealth Manager misses payment Country Garden suspends trading on onshore bonds The offshore yuan is becoming a trade that more people are starting to pay attention to on Wall Street. The outlook for China is turning rather bleak and that has made the yuan short an easy trade for some traders.  China was expected to hit 5% growth this year and that still could happen even with the property sector wei
by Edward Moya
Japanese yen hits 9-month low
Japanese yen dips below 145 line Japan's GDP expected to expand by 3.2% US retail sales projected to rise by 0.4% The Japanese yen continues to slide. USD/JPY touched the symbolic 145 line on Friday and has moved higher on Monday.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD steady ahead of jobs data
UK wages expected to accelerate by 7.9% US retail sales projected to rise 0.4% The British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. UK wage growth expected to jump The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie under pressure ahead of wage growth release
Australian dollar extends losses Australia's wage growth expected to rise Chinese Industrial Production projected to remain unchanged The Australian dollar started the week by dropping 50 basis points but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, down 0.12%. It has been a rough ride lately for the Australian dollar.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY Technical: Lethargic bulls below 145.50
USD/JPY’s two weeks rally ex-post BoJ’s flexible YCC implementation has almost reached a key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10. Rising of concerns about another bout of verbal FX interventions from Ministry of Finance officials to talk down the USD/JPY at around the 145.00 psychological level. Short-term momentum has turned bearish, risk of downside mean reversion towards the 20-day moving average now acting as support at 141.85. The ex-post effect of Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s flexible 10-year Japa
by Kelvin Wong
DJIA Technical: At the risk of shaping a minor downtrend
Key technical elements are showing signs of bullish exhaustion below the 35,650 resistance. Potential downside mean reversion to test the 50-day moving average now acting as a support at 34,510. In the past two weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been the outperformer among the major US benchmark stock indices, thanks to its lesser concentration of technology stocks that bore the brunt of the sell-off inflicted on the US stock market. For the week of 31 July and 7 August, the DJ
by Kelvin Wong
Week Ahead - A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI
US With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day.  Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and t
by Edward Moya
US stocks gyrate on hot PPI report and anchored inflation expectations; Oil rallies and gold softens
US stocks are mostly gyrating over economic data points and surveys that remind us that the disinflation process is going to struggle reaching the Fed’s 2% target. A slightly hotter-than-expected PPI report sent Treasury yields initially higher as Wall Street started to fret over a potential reacceleration with inflation.  It is easy to make the hawkish case for the Fed as we are still expecting rising wages from labor disputes, higher energy prices, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.
by Edward Moya
Brent Crude - Oil looking a little tired as gas prices pare gains
Oil prices have risen more than 20% since late June, buoyed by the actions of OPEC+ and the unilateral additional cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which have been extended to September. Furthermore, the economic outlook has become less bleak as countries have been seen to be making progress on inflation, allowing for the end - or near-end - of tightening.
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD - UK economy beats expectations in Q2, US PPI stronger but not a concern
UK economy grew 0.5% in June, 0.2% in Q2 (QoQ) US headline and core PPIs rose 0.3% last month, more than expected GBPUSD steady near major support zone The UK economy showed further resilience toward the end of the second quarter, buoyed by better weather. The cost-of-living crisis has clearly been an immense drag on the economy and due to its nature, will have hit some households much harder than others. But overall, consumer activity has been very resilient which has ultimately stopped the ec
by Craig Erlam
Dollar pares losses after hotter-than-expected PPI
US PPI posts first gain in three months (last month revised to a flat reading) Dollar eyes a fourth week of strength 10-year Treasury rises 2.9bps to 4.135%; November rate hike odds rise to 26.3% The dollar pared losses after supplier inflation in July came in mostly hotter-than-expected.  Hold your horses on calls that the Fed is done raising rates.  This was a notable increase for producer prices and that could very well keep the risk of a November Fed rate hike on the table. The producer-pr
by Edward Moya
British pound edges higher after GDP surprise
UK GDP rises 0.2% US inflation accelerates by 3.2% The British pound is slightly higher earlier on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2706, up 0.24%. UK GDP surprises to the upside The week wrapped up on a high note in the UK, as the economy grew by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter.
by Kenneth Fisher
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