All Articles

EUR/USD: The Jackson Hole Dollar Playbook

2-year Treasury yield rises 3.7bps to 4.979% (supports Fed's higher for longer push) Dollar softens as risk appetite tentatively returns following last week's stock market rout Fed Chair Powell to speak at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday The fate of the dollar will not solely depend on what Fed Chair Powell says at Jackson, but on several other factors. Will Nvidia’s earnings reignite the AI trade and provide much needed relief to tech stocks?

21-08-2023 10:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - China stock market hit 9-month low, further downside risk in Nasdaq 100 as Jackson Hole looms

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to decipher the current bearish performance of China stock market as its key CSI 300 benchmark stock index sank to a 9-month low and the implications of Fed Chair Powell's keynote address on the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on the longer-term equilibrium interest rate while momentum elements of long duration risk assets such as Nasdaq 100 are exhibiting risk of further downside pressure. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2QVJo6

21-08-2023 08:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

WTI Oil Technical: Potential bullish reversal to resume medium-term uptrend

The recent decline of -6.8% from its 10 August 2023 high has not damaged the medium-term uptrend phase of WTI oil. Today’s price actions have indicated a revival of a short-term uptrend phase. Watch the key short-term support at US$80.90. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Time for a potential short-term pullback” published on 15 August 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have indeed shaped the

21-08-2023 08:06 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Another rough week for the Australian dollar

AUD/USD close to 9-month lows China fails to cut 5-year LPR The Australian dollar is steady at the start of the new trading week. In the European session, AUD/USD is unchanged at 0.6404.

21-08-2023 06:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: Watch 92.80 key downside trigger level

Weak medium-term momentum may kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase for AUD/JPY. Key short-term resistance stands at 93.70 with a potential downside trigger at 92.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY: Minor downtrend remains intact” published on 28 June 2023. Click here for a recap. Since its 19 June 2023 high of 97.67, the price actions of the AUD/JPY have continued to shape lower highs despite a retest and rebound on its key 200-day moving average after it printed

21-08-2023 02:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Powell's Jackson Hole Speech will be Must-See TV

The main event for next week will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed Chair Powell’s speech will reiterate that more rate hikes might be needed and that rates should stay higher for longer. With the recent surge with real yields, Fed Chair Powell can acknowledge that policy is restrictive and that future rate cuts could eventually be warranted as long as inflation has been defeated.

18-08-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya

BTC/USD: Bitcoin crash triggers massive liquidations

Bitcoin fell to a two-month low as $1billion of losses occurred over past 24 hours Elon Musk's SpaceX reportedly sold all its Bitcoin, after writing down holdings in 2021 and 2022 Bitcoin under pressure as global risk aversion leads to de-risking moment Bitcoin’s plunge stemmed from nervousness about the looming US Bitcoin ETF decisions and on concerns that China’s property crisis could lead to further downward pressure for risky assets. Now that Bitcoin fell below the key trading range of $28

18-08-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Yen struggles to act like safe-haven this week as stocks have worst week since March

Soft landing hopes fizzle as real yields hit highest levels in a decade China jitters remain as Evergrande files for US bankruptcy Dollar index posts best win streak since May 2022 The Japanese yen is no longer acting like a safe haven currency. With global stocks having the worst week since March, dollar-yen appears poised to finish the week higher. Wall Street has had a major reset, and now believes that interest rates will stay higher for longer, and is fearful that the Fed might have to d

18-08-2023 12:00 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - yen gains ground as core inflation slows

Japan's core CPI eases in July The decline supports expectations that BoJ will maintain policy USD/JPY has dipped lower on Friday The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.29, down 0.38%. The month of August has been kind to the US dollar, which has posted strong gains against all of the major currencies.

18-08-2023 10:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar lower on Evergrande bankruptcy

The Australian dollar's slide continues Evergrande bankruptcy raises contagion fears It has been all red for the Australian dollar, as AUD/USD has closed lower for eight straight days and declined 230 basis points during that time. The downswing has continued on Friday, as AUD/USD is trading at 0.6390 in the European session, down 0.20%.

18-08-2023 07:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound edges lower on soft retail sales report

UK retail sales post a sharp decline Rainy weather and high prices weighed on consumer spending The British pound has given up ground on Friday after several days of modest gains. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2736, down 0.07%. UK retail sales decline more than expected The weather in the UK continues to have a major impact on consumer spending.

18-08-2023 06:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225 Technical: Overstretched decline, potential rebound looms

Nine-week corrective decline from the 16 June 2023 high has almost reached a key inflection/support level of 31,130. Short-term momentum indicates an overstretched down move from the 10 August 2023 minor swing high, increasing the odds of a potential rebound in price actions. Intermediate resistances to watch will be at 31,760 and 32,380. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: On the verge of a potential multi-week corrective decline” published on 2 August 2023

18-08-2023 02:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong

MPEM-0041-Podcast-Thumbnail-White–1280x720-1.png

Podcast - China property fears hit sentiment, US outlook remains upbeat

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Nick Syiek (Trader Nick) to discuss intervention expectations from both China and Japan, the FOMC minutes and the outlook for Q3 GDP, and what Walmart earnings told us about the US consumer.

17-08-2023 13:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar dip might be temporary if US outlook remains robust

Walmart CEO is more optimistic about spending patterns than he did 3 months ago Dollar's five-day rally halted as yen and yuan rebound Fed could remain in hiking mode if economic resilience prevents inflation from coming down Now that we heard from Walmart, it is clear that the US consumer is still willing to spend. Expectations for robust consumer spending in Q3 have been confirmed and that should keep growth estimates trending higher. With COVID savings still expected to be used over the ne

17-08-2023 11:53 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: Pound rally continues as Gilts drop and on dragonfly doji formation

UK 10-year government bond yield surges to a 15-year high US 10-year real yields approach 14-year high Dollar also lower on rebounding yen and yuan The British pound is still rallying from the latest inflation that suggests sticky core inflation will keep the BOE in tightening mode. With the global bond market selloff being the dominant theme on Wall Street, traders are noticing Gilt yields are standing out. With FX traders pricing in three more rate hikes by the BOE, it seems that could be t

17-08-2023 11:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen rebounds, key inflation data next

Japanese yen rebounds, but intervention worries remain Japan releases July inflation on Friday The Japanese yen has bounced back on Thursday after failing to post a winning day since August 4th. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.92, down 0.30%. USD/JPY has been the worst performer among the major currencies over the past month, declining about 7%.

17-08-2023 10:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD rises ahead of UK retail sales

UK retail sales expected to slip in July Fed minutes note concern about inflation The British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2772, up 0.32%. UK retail sales expected to decline The UK will wrap up a busy week with retail sales on Friday.

17-08-2023 09:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar extends losses

AUD/USD touches 9-month low Australian job growth slips Fed minutes note concern about inflation The Australian dollar has been on a nasty slide. Earlier, AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6364, a nine-month low, before recovering.

17-08-2023 07:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Bullish tone resumes, 148.20/85 next resistance to watch

USD/JPY cleared above 145.50/146.10 resistance that confluences with BoJ’s FX intervention conducted on 22 September last year. Primary driver of USD/JPY rallies has been a weak Chinese yuan and rising sovereign yield premium of the 10-year US Treasury over the 10-year JGB. The next medium-term resistance to watch will be at 148.20/85 on the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: Lethargic bulls below 145.50” published on 14 August 2023.

17-08-2023 01:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY: Dollar rallies as Fed sees significant upside risks with inflation

Fed officials at the June 26th meeting saw significant upside risks A couple of officials wanted to keep rates on hold Before the Minutes release the yen fell to levels that triggered intervention last September At 3am Tokyo time (2pm NY), Japanese officials watched the yen weaken to the dollar following the release of the Fed Minutes. The dollar index hit a two-month low as Fed officials remain worried about inflation and are still positioned to deliver more tightening. Only two Fed voters w

16-08-2023 14:31 GMT by Edward Moya

All news & analysis