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USD/JPY: Dollar stays near lows after mixed 20-year auction
Earnings and soft services PMIs sends yields and dollar lower Fed rate hike odds for September 20th meeting stand at 11% (down from yesterday's 16%) Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin may have died in plane crash The US dollar remained near session lows against the Japanese yen after the Treasury's mixed 20-year auction.  The bond market rally that started yesterday is holding up after decent demand saw a 4.499% yield, which was higher than the pre-sale yield of 4.490%, and obviously above the
23-08-2023 15:21 GMT by Edward Moya
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GBP/USD pares losses after soft PMIs
UK manufacturing and services PMIs decelerate The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. UK PMIs head lower The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
23-08-2023 13:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/JPY: Pullback emerges following horrible EZ PMI data
Eurozone August Services PMI fell into contraction territory; dropping from 50.9 to 48.3 Treasuries extend gains after global PMIs disappoint; double digit declines across global 10-year bonds Yen rallies to a 1-week high against the dollar EUR/JPY (a daily char of which is show) as of Wednesday (8/23/2023) displays a noticeable pullback after the euro area's service sector contraction worsened. The 20-nation bloc saw the service sector unexpectedly fell into contraction territory.
23-08-2023 12:33 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD - ECB may be convinced to hold in September after latest data
Eurozone Services PMI falls to 48.3 in August (50.5 expected, 50.9 in July) Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 43.7 in August (42.6 expected, 42.7 in July) Euro testing key support against the US dollar The data from the eurozone was no more promising, particularly Germany - the bloc's largest economy - which has had a harder year than most and looks likely to continue to do so going into next year. There was a slight and unexpected improvement in the manufacturing number.
23-08-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam
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GBP/USD - BoE rate expectations pared back as PMIs point to recession
UK Services PMI falls to 48.7 (50.8 expected, 51.5 in July) UK Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.5 (45 expected, 45.3 in July) Cable tests support but rebounds for the third time The UK services and manufacturing PMI surveys fell well short of forecasts this morning, the former deep into contraction territory. What's more, the weakness was widespread from new orders to hiring and prices paid, which suggests we're not just talking about a blip in the data, but rather the prospect of a recessio
23-08-2023 11:10 GMT by Craig Erlam
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D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom
The share price performance of Nvidia has been the main driver of Nasdaq 100 outperformance/premium against the rest of the world stock indices ex-US. Lofty expectations have been priced in for Nvidia ahead of its Q2 earnings release today. Several bearish technical elements have emerged in the share price of Nvidia.
23-08-2023 05:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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British pound eyes PMIs reports
UK order expectations decline Manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to tick lower on Wednesday The British pound started the Tuesday session in positive territory but has given up these gains. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2737, down 0.16%. UK manufacturing continues to sputter The Confederation of British Industry industrial order expectations fell to -15 in August, down from -9 in July and missing the consensus estimate of -13.
22-08-2023 09:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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BRICS Summit: Dedollarization risks ease
Xi meets Ramaphosa and discuss how to bolster trade in their own currencies Yuan still weakens despite PBOC’s most forceful fixing on record BRICS might lead to more investment in Africa, potentially bolstering rand The annual BRICS Summit begins in Johannesburg with China’s President Xi meeting South African President Ramaphosa.  China and India have enjoyed 25 years of diplomatic ties and are looking to bolster trade and investment with more countries.  The three-day summit will be attended b
22-08-2023 08:31 GMT by Edward Moya
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NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail sales
NZD/USD posts strong gains on Tuesday New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% The New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%.
22-08-2023 08:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD - Consolidation continues amid promising inflation numbers for the UK
New inflation methodology offers hope for BoE 1.28 could be major resistance point for GBPUSD A break of 1.26 could be bearish signal Recent UK economic data has been a mixed bag, with wages rising at a much-accelerated rate but inflation decelerating as expected. While the Bank of England will be relieved at the latter, the former will remain a concern as wage growth even near those levels is not consistent with inflation returning sustainably to target over the medium term. The ONS released
22-08-2023 05:44 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Japanese yen rises as inflation higher than expected
The Japanese yen has bounced back on Tuesday after starting the week with losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.67, down 0.37%. BoJ core inflation rises to 3.3%  Earlier today, Japan released BoJ core inflation, one of the central bank's preferred inflation indicators.
22-08-2023 05:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/CHF Technical: Potential continuation of medium-term downtrend
The CHF is the second-best performing major currency against the USD based on a one-month rolling basis. The recent four weeks of up move of USD/CHF has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions that advocate the potential continuation of its medium-term impulsive down move. 0.8800/8830 is the key resistance zone to watch on the USD/CHF. In the past four weeks, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is the second best-performing major currency against the USD where the CHF just depreciated by -1.40% with the GB
22-08-2023 02:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD: Little Loonie support from oil; Reversal or Fakeout time?
Dollar supported as 10-year Treasury hits 4.34%, highest levels since financial crisis Oil market to remain tight, but so far offers little help for the loonie Loonie was having biggest intra-day gain since end of July The Canadian dollar has been steadily weakening against the greenback since the middle of July.  The USD/CAD bullish uptrend appears to be facing some resistance as FX traders anticipate both the Fed and BOC are possibly one more rate hike away from being done with tightening. It
21-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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Euro shrugs after mixed inflation report
Markets show little reaction to Friday's eurozone inflation report Headline inflation falls but core rate unchanged The euro is steady at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0886, up 0.13%.
21-08-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY punches above 146, BoJ inflation next
USD/JPY pushes above 146 line Bank of Japan's Core CPI is expected to ease to 2.7% The Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day.
21-08-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD: The Jackson Hole Dollar Playbook
2-year Treasury yield rises 3.7bps to 4.979% (supports Fed's higher for longer push) Dollar softens as risk appetite tentatively returns following last week's stock market rout Fed Chair Powell to speak at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday The fate of the dollar will not solely depend on what Fed Chair Powell says at Jackson, but on several other factors. Will Nvidia’s earnings reignite the AI trade and provide much needed relief to tech stocks?
21-08-2023 10:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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Podcast - China stock market hit 9-month low, further downside risk in Nasdaq 100 as Jackson Hole looms
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to decipher the current bearish performance of China stock market as its key CSI 300 benchmark stock index sank to a 9-month low and the implications of Fed Chair Powell's keynote address on the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on the longer-term equilibrium interest rate while momentum elements of long duration risk assets such as Nasdaq 100 are exhibiting risk of further downside pressure. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2QVJo6
21-08-2023 08:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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