Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure from Ceasefire clouds – In-depth analysis

Precious metals have been the victim of a severe reality check since late January.

Subjects of severe melt-ups since August 2025, following a slow but consistent grind higher from de-dollarization trends, the commodities got swept on all sides with extreme leverage and volatility.

And in Financial Markets, it rarely translates into anything good – Silver lost about 50% of its value in a flash crash during mid-February.

It has stalled its correction since, but the price action is still far from bullish.

Fast-forward to the beginning of the US-Iran War; A key narrative was the safe-haven appeal of the precious commodities, particularly gold, which has historically performed well during periods of tension.

But this safe-haven status was severely put in question during this conflict, as the asset class tumbled whenever Crude Oil and the US Dollar rallied, which were highly correlated with Stock Market movements.

With these Market dynamics, the question of whether metals aren't actually risk assets at current valuations is a logical one.

Still, Silver held relatively well, rebounding alongside other assets at the announcement of the Ceasefire and reaching +35% at its highs.

The issue, however, is that even with Equity benchmarks consolidating at all-time highs, the grey metal just isn't able to form a consistent uptrend. XAG just rejected its $84 resistance yet again, getting pressured by the cloudy peace narrative.

Will metals regain their safe-haven status in the event of a rebound in tensions?

Difficult to say for now – what is sure is that they faced high pressure from rising oil prices, so keep Black Gold in check if you want to trade the commodity.

We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for a high-potential volatility event this coming weekend. Let's get right into it.

Read More:

• Markets are stuck in the waiting for US-Iran talks – Market Check
• Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?
• USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis

Silver retraced higher by 35% after reaching new $61 cycle lows during the war, but Participants used the rebound to take-profit on the dip.

The precious metal is down 9.30%, has officially broken and retested its recovery bull channel, which is not giving a good look for bulls.

Now testing the low of its major $75 Pivot point, there is an ongoing battel between short-term bulls and bears – To get a better idea of who will win on the short-run, we need to take a closer look.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50
• Friday highs $83
• Higher timeframe Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs

Support Levels:

• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75
• $70 Minor Support
• December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)
• $61.10 War Lows
• $50 to $54 Major Support

Bears took the back control of the action since last Friday, forming a counter-trend bear channel which remains key to short-term trading.

However, bulls are defending the Pivot Zone lows ($74.50 to $75) and will went to use this move to break above the 50-Hour MA ($77), acting as key area for sellers since the turn lower.

Above this, the next short term resistance is at $79.

A range could easily establish in this Pivot zone as long as the geopolitical situation remains cloudy.

Breakout traders should watch for pushes above or below these key intraday levels.

Safe Trades!

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