USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis

USD/JPY is often playing tricks on FX traders, and this time it is completely avoiding volatility after gigantic up-and-down moves.

The Currency pair is known for its erratic price action, highly affected by movements in rates, global trade, and inflation, as well as regional and geopolitical developments, all of which have been severely affected since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict.

Seen as a major safe-haven currency since the early 2000s, profiting from lower yields in times of panic, the JPY could not find any appeal during this conflict.

Even as stock markets initially sold off, risk-off assets and currencies failed to gain traction, with the US Dollar and WTI Crude drawing all the attention.

Believing the conflict would stay focused on the Middle East, a wider flight to safety was avoided.

But the economic damage to Europe, and in the case of today's USD/JPY outlook, Japan and Asia, is still heavy, and that led to massive rallies in the US Dollar against currencies from these regions.

You can see the strong correlation between USD/JPY and Oil movements in our recent analysis of the pair.

Add to this narrative a striking stall in inflation in Japan, which was the only path to justify a return to less accommodative policy, and Traders really found a natural terrain to race back to Japan shorts.

The Japanese CPI, releasing tonight at 19:30 (ET), is expected to rebound, as supply-side inflationary pressures could once again slowly push Japanese consumer prices higher.

The Bank of Japan mentioned conflict-led inflation a few times but reportedly still leans toward a pause at the upcoming meeting, while hinting at a higher chance of a 25 bps hike in June to allow for further analysis of the war's impact.

So, unless CPI beats expectations by a lot, this pricing shouldn't change much.

With the second round of talks, delayed for almost a week and a half, set to resume tomorrow and continue throughout the weekend, this will be a decisive moment for the FX pair.

Forming a clear 2,000 pip hesitation range in recent action, traders are waiting to see if a proper peace solution is met (implying a break lower in the range) or if the war is to resume, which would add further chances to revisit 2026 highs (above 160.00).

Let's dive right into an intraday-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY.

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Instead of entering a corrective phase, as was forecasted by the break below key MAs and bull channel, USD/JPY maintained a clearly rangebound picture as the US Dollar completely stalled its correction.

Since reaching new 2026 highs on March 27, the pair has been stuck in a clear 2,000 pip range between 157.50 and 159.50 (+/- 100 pips).

While the consolidation is solid, as seen with the flattening 50 and 200 Moving Averages, traders will have to remain cautious as the narrative could change during the weekend.

Currently at the resistance, USD/JPY has more chances to reject lower, but any headlines regarding a compromised peace process would push for a breakout towards 160.50.

Let's take a closer look.

As can be seen on the 1H timeframe, the range has seen swift up-and-down movement, tumbling to support last Friday and exploding back to retest resistance.

With today's North American session not expected to provide any meaningful change, traders should remain patient.

If the CPI data comes hotter, expect to see a drop below 159.43 (50-Hour MA) which could provide decent sell-stop entries – Extending below 158.80 should see bearish acceleration.

• Watch out if the action breaks 159.80
• The weekend break will provide high volatility movement on Monday, so watch your size ahead of the key developments.

Resistance levels

• 159.50 to 159.70 2026 Major Resistance (range highs)
• 159.78 daily highs
• April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major Resistance
• June Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00

Support levels

• 159.43 (50-Hour MA)
• Mid-range pivot 158.75 bull above, bear below
• December highs Major Pivot 157.50 to 158.00 (range lows)
• 156.00 Pivotal Support
• 155.00 Mini-Support

Safe Trades!

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