S&P 500 to 7,000 & Nasdaq 100 points to ATH – Are Markets getting ahead of themselves?

• With US fighter jets on the sideline, US Stock Benchmarks are experiencing a sonic boom
• The resumption of talks is supposed to take place tomorrow, and traders don't seem to wonder if they are getting ahead of themselves
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

After remaining close to unchanged in the beginning of the session, Stock Markets got off to the burners.

With no pity for whoever remained short of the war, bulls are leading an absolute rampage, which has now taken two out of the three major US Benchmarks just a few points short of their all-time highs.

Traders are still repricing the immense progress in the geopolitical situation, and, from what it seems, the narrative has shifted from global recessions and rate hikes due to oil supply shortages to the US outperforming everybody else yet again.

The end of the Middle Eastern war is certainly good news. With U.S. crude oil orders projected to reach record highs next month, and the Strait of Hormuz still in a deadlock, it makes sense for Wall Street to be excited.

Nonetheless, this rally seems to be surpassing everyone's expectations, and not surprisingly, given that a proper peace deal still hasn't been drawn up. At least, the Fintwit arena seems to be lagging behind the move.

A second round of US-Iran negotiations is supposed to take place on Thursday, and with Stock Markets only focusing on President Trump's words, the one thing they are salivating over is his obsession with reaching a deal illico presto.

The Prediction-Markets-based odds for a peace deal by April 30 remain unchanged from yesterday (~37%).

WTI, on the other hand, is holding steady just above $90 as Energy traders remain more skeptical of the potential for a diplomatic solution.

As long as Hormuz remains stuck, the situation for Oil prices doesn't change, and the US wins, with a large number of empty tankers now heading to the Gulf of "America" to make Black Gold flow again.

In other news, the Beige Book was just released, and the economic situation that seemed to worsen since October really now seems to be a mere correction, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting modest growth despite the huge raises in Energy prices.

The details are showing a bit more internal weakness, but in terms of Macroeconomic trend, the activity is just slightly tilting upwards – Enough for Stock Markets to keep up their ecstatic advances.

You can get access to the full Beige Book report right here.

Will the huge advances continue? As the Dow Jones actually pulls back, the rally isn't as widespread as it seems, and the more tech-focused Nasdaq and S&P 500 are benefiting from large advances in Mega Caps.

The S&P 500 is now breaking its all-time highs, trading above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq is only a few points away from its October record.

The most pessimistic traders are hoping to see a case of buying the rumor, selling the news, something that could be interesting, but fading such bullish candles could be quite dangerous.

Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

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The Market really is pushing higher from the pursued extension from Mega Caps, with Microsoft pushing higher by 5.80%, Tesla up 7.40% and the general Technology Services sub-sector shining bright.

On the other hand, the more defensive Manufacturing sectors are taking a generalized hit along with Utilities and Healthcare.

The Dow is now lagging its peers quite remarkably, struggling from intra-market sector dynamics, failing to surpass its previous session highs.

Once again, the DJIA remains the Index to trade for those tracking live sentiment as the younger benchmarks tend to see exaggeration on Tech movement.

Looking at the price action, Dow Bulls are officially waiting for further news.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200
• 49,500 psychological mini-resistance
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Daily Range Highs

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 48,300 (bull above)
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq is up close to 15% in a quite insane price action, closing in by the minute to the its October all-time highs.

The CFD record is at 26,280, while the actual Index record is at 26,182 (only 20 points from here).

It wouldn't be surprising to see the record break after such a significant run, but traders could also see high volatility in case the talks fail.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• All-time high resistance 26,200 to 26,300 (testing)
• October all-time highs 26,283
• Potential resistance 26,600 to 26,750

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 25,700 to 25,850
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Pivotal support
• Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support

The S&P 500 is officially going parabolic, breaking its January all-time high with ease and aims to officially continue its price discovery.

Similarly as Nasdaq, the rally shall continue if the ceasefire talks tomorrow maintain the hopes for a proper peace deal.

Look at 7,050 - 7,060 for some mild profit-taking in that scenario

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• ATH Resistance and Range Highs from 7,000 to 7,020 (broken)
• Daily Highs 7,027
• Next key potential resistance 7,060 to 7,080

Support Levels

• December ATH Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)
• Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

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