On track to all-time highs? Ceasefire may extend – North American Mid-Week Market Update

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Markets are taking a break ahead of the resuming of US-Iran talks tomorrow, with mediators pushing for a ceasefire extension
• Stock Markets are on track to recover to all-time highs with euphoric Markets

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Markets continue their euphoric ascension with both parties reportedly eager to pursue talks.

Traders really seem to have a sixth sense for turning points in the narrative, with Stock Market buyers ruthlessly bidding prices back up to right around pre-war highs.

Cautious analysis could warn of a potential for ecstatic behavior, particularly when no peace deal has yet been properly drawn out.

After a chaotic first round of negotiations over the weekend, anxiety rose, but that did not last long, with President Trump repeatedly reassuring that "[Iran] sent the right people and they want to make a deal." The Nuclear issue, a particular subject of contention, is now in line for the coming resumption of discussions on Thursday.

Meanwhile, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks also officially underway – the first since 1993 – peace in the Middle East seems closer by the day.

The reality could be a bit more chaotic than what Participants are pricing, but all they wanted to see was a war that doesn't escalate any further (and with fears of a ground operation just three weeks ago, this is pretty decent progress).

The latest news from the Associated Press reported that the mediators are now looking to extend the Ceasefire, set to expire next Tuesday, April 22.

Furthermore, even Energy commodity traders are now attempting to turn the page on this heavy chapter, with the escalation premium now fully erased.

As a result, only a ~$20 supply drought premium remains, which should only be erased if and when a deal is reached.

On the Macroeconomic side, the US reported a less hot-than-expected PPI report, which began to show a turn in demand-side inflation, with only heavy supply, energy-linked inflation hurting prospects.

After all, IEEPA tariffs got banned by the US Supreme Court, which quickly took out a few percentage points from the data – the nastier side of it is the fact that oil-led inflation can affect inflation in a 3 to 6 month span as businesses initially absorb the lower margins before passing them on to consumers (when looking at prior energy crises).

On the northern border, Canada just reported an important rebound in Manufacturing sales, up 3.6% (slightly missing the 3.8% estimate), erasing the -3% loss from January.

This continues to show how sideways North American economies have evolved in recent times, with Employment for both the US and Canada continuously wiggling and economic indicators slowing and bouncing again.

Policymakers will surely wait to see the effects of the war on consumption and inflation before moving the needle.

Kevin Warsh's hearing is now expected next week, after being delayed by Jerome Powell's court case – Trump had some words on the issue this morning (and, as per usual, they were not the sweetest).

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• FX levels for EUR/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD – USD dumps amid peace repricing
• The joy persists for Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for April 14
• Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

Global Equities continue their sensational rebound, largely led by Japanese and US Stocks (with the US Dollar and Japanese Yen also weakening severely to add fuel to their respective Markets).

The Dollar Index continues its long-term rangebound trajectory, rejecting the 100.00 resistance for the fourth time since July 2025 and now finding intermediate support at the key 98.00 level.

Traders are waiting to hear more from the continued negotiations before making their next moves – To get ready for the next phase for the US Dollar, I invite you to check out our recent FX analysis.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.00 Major Support (testing)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The US Dollar has puked against most FX Majors in the past week and particularly more against the Australian and Kiwi Dollars – Both relieved from the lower tensions and less aggravating Energy supply fears.

The regional trends in FX seen in 2025 persist again, and this also allowed the basket of EU currencies to continue to outperform (~ +2%) the US Dollar.

For those who haven't seen our past week's edition, this is a seasonal performance chart for the US Dollar. April is its weakest month of the year, so that itself could weigh even more on the Greenback.

The next move will be contingent on proper progress in US-Iran talks.

The Loonie has once again given up a decent part of its progress against major currencies but this effect is much less exaggerated than what is observed in the US Dollar.

The Loonie is actually attempting a bounce from recent lows against its peers, supported by the better Manufacturing data and widening order book for its Petrol exports.

Keep a close eye on the CAD in the coming week.

USD/CAD continues to correct within its large range, having broken the key momentum 1.38 pivot.

Now evolving within an intermediate bear-channel, traders will be looking at the key 1.3750 Support to see whether it holds or breaks.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 Range Highs

Support Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

The North American calendar is somewhat calmer until next Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar will face an important test on Monday with CA Inflation releasing at 8:30 A.M.

With Middle East developments easing, keep a close eye on Ceasefire news and Oil!

Safe Trades!

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