Uneasy quietness during the tense Ceasefire – North American Session Market Wrap for April 13

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Markets are currently caught in an uneasy quietness following a weekend of extremely high-stakes geopolitical drama.

The fragile ceasefire was heavily tested over the past 48 hours as initial US-Iran diplomatic talks failed, bringing the region dangerously close to a full restart of the conflict.

In a dramatic escalation designed to force Iran's hand at the negotiating table, the US initiated a naval blockade of the highly contested Strait of Hormuz.

Despite these aggressive pressure tactics, the Trump administration still appears incredibly eager to secure a proper, lasting peace deal.

According to President Trump's recent statements, JD Vance has been doing a "good job" leading the talks, and the administration insists that Iranian officials want to make a deal badly (but everyone knows that the President is indeed under pressure from unpopularity of the recent conflict with midterms approaching).

The primary roadblocks remain significant, with the nuclear issue standing out as the major sticking point.

This massive geopolitical whiplash was immediately reflected in the energy markets.

WTI Crude Oil aggressively gapped to the $105 level on the Globex open as weekend anxieties peaked.

Yet, that initial panic did not last long.

However, markets caught a much-needed lifeline of positive news when it was signaled that Iran might actually be open to discussing the nuclear issue – with Hormuz remaining a key area of debate.

Following the more optimistic headlines from the Trump administration regarding the morning calls from Iranian officials, Oil corrected sharply back below $100, and broader risk assets found fuel to rally – US and EU Stocks close in the green, and Bitcoin just breached $73,000.

Since then, however, price action has been characterized by timid movements and a complete lack of continuation.

We are currently seeing a frustrating loop of sudden spikes followed by an uneasy calm and choppy range-bound trading.

Overall, the geopolitical situation remains at a tense status quo – Traders are keeping their risk tightly managed and will absolutely need to see concrete diplomatic progress before committing to a fully bullish return.

Read More:

• Metals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• Profit-taking in Stocks ahead of key weekend risk – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• USD/CAD forms a gigantic range after CA Employment – Will lower Oil prices endanger the CAD?

The mixed Market picture from this morning actually turned quite positive as the session went on, supported by the softer sentiment.

Microsoft took the lead, with players now looking to target the recent under-performers (as was seen in Amazon throughout last week). The overall heatmap closed well into a greener status, with Finance and Tech surprisingly dominating the charts.

It already is the earnings season for the first quarter, so traders will have to rely on numbers to extend their bullish views (see calendar just below).

Markets are already starting to forecast more optimistic results from high capitalization Equities.

Tomorrow's earnings will keep a focus on major financial groups including JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo (including others).

After their very decent performance today, make sure to see if this wasn't just a trick from smart players ahead of more fragile earnings (particularly as Private Credit fears persist)

Except for EU Stocks, US Bonds and Nasdaq, other global assets have maintained a cautious stance amid recent confusion in narrative.

And of course, WTI is playing its own game, bouncing 10% before easing back to a +2% gain only after the better news – What is sure is that assets are not budging much to Crude movements, as long as it doesn't break and hold above $105.

The largest victims are the infamous metals, still caught in their own shenanigans (are they trading as safe-havens or risk-assets?)

To learn more, don't forget to check out our recent Metals Market update.

Currency Markets are looking quite distorted after chaotic gaps at the globex open.

Nevertheless, the Japanese Yen and US Dollars remain at the bottom of the FX performance chart with better sentiment slowly setting.

The best performers are the Antipodeans, still extending their leads from the more positive narrative and flows, followed by Europeans – This trend will continue as long as Oil does not fully breakout (and could accelerate if it breaks lower).

The IMF meeting is officially starting tomorrow with many Central Bank and key politic speeches that will need to be tracked in order to get updated views on the current situation and local stances.

Add to this a quintessential US PPI release (heavy print expected), and Markets should see their fair bouts of information to trade with in the next 24 hours.

For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

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