Referenced assets
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 14
Traders have been ecstatic in the past two weeks amid a large repricing for peace in the Middle East, a very positive development for the world and Markets in general.
Stock Markets have now bounced about 10% on average worldwide, undoing most, if not all, of the losses incurred at the start of the War.
Some could think this is crazy, and they wouldn't be entirely wrong – Any failure of the talks could prove catastrophic in an ever-so-optimistic Market.
But Markets are also forward-looking, hence, Participants are already fantasizing about a longer-run return to world peace as the Trump Administration continues to serve TACOs and nothing really ever changes.
At least, WTI Crude has decided to move in the right direction, breaking a significant $93 support level and decisively looking to pull back from its elevated war prices.
Remaining below $100 should continue to maintain a positive Market sentiment.
Participants will have to keep an eye on the bigger picture.
It all starts with the Strait of Hormuz: If Tankers can normally flow throughout the area without being threatened by drone attacks, Crude prices should continue to tumble ($70 per barrel seems like a decent target as Supply routes will still have to be rebuilt).
However, if talks turn into a standstill, it will be difficult to justify all-times in Stock Markets while Commodity prices remain at 2-year highs and inflation prospects remain elevated.
On the Ceasefire, things really seem to be moving the right way. The first Israel-Lebanon direct talks since 1993 have officially begun at the US Department of State – A mandatory condition for Iran to participate.
The US has been seemingly more eager to move forward, but they just issued their recent demands: A full-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full authority from the IRGC during talks (in order to minimize extremism from compromising the talks).
The talks are expected on Thursday and will have to lead to concrete progress to maintain the elation seen around Markets:
Stock Markets and Cryptos are bouncing like never before, the US Dollar is crumbling and other FX currencies are feasting. Metals are also rebounding but remain stuck in a bizarre price action, with the most risk-prone metals rallying (Copper and Silver).
Stock Market Heatmap for the Session
The Stock Market picture is thoroughly positive in today's action, with Mega Caps leading the gains (NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, META), helping to push for an outperformance from US Benchmarks.
On the other hand, the Energy/Minerals sector is struggling, unsurprisingly when looking at the daily change in Crude Oil.
The earnings season has officially begun, hence some local stocks are subject to their own struggles and successes.
Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 15)
Some earnings for large cap financials continue, hence the sector should continue to see elevated breadth of action.
Keep an eye on Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and ASML.
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
The Market rallies are sensational, with broad asset classes ecstatic from yet another 6% drop in Crude Oil prices.
Silver and Copper remain the best performers in this ongoing local rebound in the Metals asset class.
Equity Markets are doing their own pieces of work, rallying across the globe.
Most of the rebounds have been unfolding already and these assets are now at key crossroads and levels, hence make sure to see further progress in Crude prices to maintain a fully bullish view.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
FX movement seems to have now concluded their first wave of rallies against the Greenback, profiting from the smoother fundamentals.
From now on, as for other assets, continuation will be heavily contingent on further corrections in Crude Oil (and the US Dollar, naturally).
A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions
Tomorrow's session will be heavily focused on streaks of Central Bank speeches with the IMF Meeting ongoing until the end of the week.
Euro traders will want to keep an eye on Christine Lagarde's speech, beginning promptly.
For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.
Safe Trades!
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