Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook

• Stock Benchmarks mean-revert higher after strong defensive rotation flows last week
• Traders await for significant tests this week with NFP and CPI releases, containing volumes and volatility for now
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Geopolitical turmoil is fading into the background as traders already look ahead to a major stress test from US data.

The past week marked a sharp shift in positioning across risk assets and equity markets.

After months of gradual rotations, stock benchmarks appear to have reached a turning point, with high-beta Tech, AI, and Software names flat-out dropping against more traditional sectors.

A striking illustration of the trend is seen by looking at Microsoft versus Walmart — with two very different trends now clearly forming.

Is this move justified?

For now, the US continues to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains without equivalent labor growth, so that benefits US companies and profit-expectations for now.

But that imbalance is precisely what’s unsettling investors, as artificial intelligence moves deeper into its phase of creative destruction.

With restructuring underway among AI leaders and the US economic outlook still broadly supportive, flows are being forced to readjust.

The era of passive investing — where everything rose together — is now behind us.

Participants are now hunting for local mispricings, many of which have surfaced in long-ignored defensive sectors such as Energy, Consumer Defensives, and Agriculture.

This rotation helped propel the Dow Jones to fresh all-time highs last week, breaking above the 50,000 mark, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 lagged behind.

That milestone sets elevated expectations heading into a heavy week: US Retail Sales (Tuesday), Non-Farm Payrolls (Wednesday), and CPI (Friday) could all challenge the recent relief bounce in equities.

Today is shaping up as the calmest session, with limited drivers outside of geopolitics and a softer US Dollar.

Traders are also watching Fed Governor Waller’s speech this afternoon (13:30 ET) for any tone shift, now that he is out of the running for Fed Chair.

This session reverts some of last week's rebalancing flows with Microsoft and Semiconductors leading the way and profit-taking among other sectors – Typical from key outperformers ahead of high-tier data.

We prepare for the heavy week with today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Note: Iran developments remain one of the largest tail risk for volatility, hence as participants turn their attention away, keep a close eye on any breaking news.

Read More:

• Chart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50
• US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly Outlook
• Bank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the Pound

The Dow is now consolidating after last Friday's explosion to a new-record.

Holding above 50,000 in today's session confirms that the index remains bid even above the milestone ahead of this week's key reports.

Any push above the overnight gap-higher (50,271) after the Non-Farm Payrolls data will be a sign for continued breakout for the cycle.

Watch out however if you see a strong drop with high volume in Wednesday's open.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• All-time Highs mini-resistance 50,200
• Session highs Resistance 50,271
• Potential minor resistance 50,400 to 50,500

Support Levels

• 49,900 to 50,000 Momentum Pivot
• January ATH Resistance now Pivotal Support 49,500 to 49,700
• Major Support – 49,000
• Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700
• Key Support around 47,500
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq is now proving that it won't abandon this battle so easily, breaking out of its past week's descending trend in this morning's action.

Nonetheless, with the key data ahead, dip-buyers will want to monitor closely reactions to the 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages.

• Rejecting them would pose a dead-cat bounce signal for the tech sector
• Breaking back above however points to further recovery for the Nasdaq which could stage a rebound against the Dow
  • Keep these indicators in check after the NFP and CPI for confirmation on the upcoming trends.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (4H 50 and 200 MA)
• Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850
• 26,246 FOMC highs
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

• Minor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,250
• February 5 lows 24,165
• 24,500 to 25,600 Key Support
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

It seems that the S&P 500 is poised to retest its 7,020 All-time record ahead of the key weekly release, but it seems unrealistic to expect a real breakout before that.

After NFP and CPI, see if traders can manage a clean push above the ATH, closing above on the week will be a confirming sign.

Any clear rejection however confirms the rangebound picture for the Index even further.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Previous ATH Resistance now Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing highs)
• Session top 6,983
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Pivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• Overnight lows 6,735 (range lows)
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

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