Unclear BLS post-shutdown schedule – Markets Weekly Outlook

This week finally saw the US government reopen after the longest ever government shutdown, which lasted 43 days.

News of the deal initially brought a much-needed rally in stocks on Monday, but throughout the week, markets have been plagued by sudden selloffs without much explanation.

NOTE: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Septemnber NFP (normally published in early October) on Thursday, November 20.

As explained in our last weekly outlook, participants remain anxious on themes of high valuations, particularly as key participants like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang issued warnings on US policies and regulations that he believes will restrain progress in AI.

Huang stated that China is only "nanoseconds behind America in AI".

Many doubts remain after some warnings from private data releases, like the new weekly ADP series, which indicated an average drop of 11K jobs in the private sector in the past four weeks. This has fueled even more anxiety about how the 1.5-month "data dark age" will ultimately look.

Adding to the confusion, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that due to the lack of collection during the shutdown, the October jobs (NFP) and inflation (CPI) data may never be released.

Leavitt claimed the data was "permanently impaired," leaving policymakers "flying blind at a critical period".

There has been a decent move higher in equities to finish the week after an even more scary open, but participants are all looking at each other to see who moves first.

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Expect to receive more news from the BLS as they resume their operations again.

From what it seems, they will be prioritizing November releases.

However, the September NFP is expected to be released quickly, as early as next week, as its data was collected prior to the shutdown taking effect.

Cryptocurrencies see the most outflows once again in the ongoing risk-deleveraging happening throughout Markets.

For the rest, despite enormous volatility, most assets have mean-reverted throughout the week, leading to low weekly changes.

But for those who have been actively trading and/or watching the action unfold, everybody can confirm that the week has been far from calm.

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The upcoming week for APAC markets is dominated by high-impact inflation updates, now focusing mostly on Japan and New Zealand data.

AUD traders will still have to log in. Monday starts with the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes, offering a detailed look at the Board's recent interest rate discussions and after another week of positive economic surprise (large beats in Employment, delaying cuts further).

The primary domestic indicator will be the Wage Price Index (WPI), due on Tuesday evening (20:30 ET), which is the most critical measure of underlying domestic inflation pressure.

For those following China, the PBoC Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday evening (21:15 ET) will attract quite some attention.

While no change is expected, communication regarding growth and concerns will be closely watched by all participants; China released some pretty bad data the past week, particularly regarding international trade.

Japanese data sets the stage early and provides the week's biggest inflation event. Sunday night brings the preliminary Q3 GDP figures to check the economy's pulse.

However , the key macro event for JPY traders is Thursday evening's (19:30 ET) National CPI release, but this one is not as closely compared to the Tokyo CPI (releasing next week).

NZD traders will also be quite busy, with the New Zealand Producer Price Index (Q3) releasing Tuesday evening, and followed by their Trade Balance data on Thursday.

The upcoming week for traders is highly polarized, focusing on inflation in Europe, the UK and Canada – The picture is still unclear for US data except for a November 20 Sep NFP release!

Starting Monday, CAD traders will welcome the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 9:30 A.M. ET.

Major data continues in Europe on Wednesday (6:00 A.M. ET) with the release of the Eurozone Core HICP (CPI).

The EU will also publish crucial forward-looking sentiment figures on Friday with the HCOB PMIs (4:15 - 5:00 A.M. ET), giving a fresh look at economic activity.

As for the US, the week is a waiting game of surprises, particularly with the BLS uncertainty.

Traders will look at the interest-rate-sensitive Housing Starts and Permits on Wednesday (8:30 A.M. ET).

The market’s real focus will be on potential past releases throughout next week, the New weekly ADP series on Tuesday, and Friday's Michigan Sentiment Survey (11:00 A.M. ET), which offers direct insight into consumer confidence and, more importantly, long-term Inflation Expectations.

Of course, the Swiss Franc is on watch as well, with SNB Chair Thomas Jordan speaking on Friday, and any policy hint will move the safe-haven currency that has seen quite some inflows again this week.

Not on the picture, but keep an eye on the flurry of Central Bank speeches throughout the week as the final quarter rate decisions approach.

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

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