US Blockade on Hormuz begins! Wall Street withstands the pressure – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks gapped down at their weekly open with US-Iran ceasefire weakening
• Crude Oil rebounded above $100 with Islamabad talks compromised and a US blockade in Hormuz on its way
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

This weekend marked the start of US-Iran negotiations, which, unsurprisingly, quickly turned sour.

A wave of US and Iranian envoys have come and gone from Islamabad, Pakistan, to maintain the diplomatic attempts – The first round of talks was unfortunately unfruitful.

Numerous disputes have halted discussions, with the US administration eager for an agreement but insisting on demands that the Islamic regime considers too harsh.

WTI Crude surged nearly 10% to $104 at the Globex open, sparking pessimism in global stock markets.

The Ceasefire is still ongoing, and as long as it continues, there is hope for a more peaceful path ahead.

President Trump recently decided to implement a blockade of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran maintaining their leverage on the world's most important 10km location.

Will this advance a deal? Uncertain, given ongoing threats to end the truce. Prediction markets now estimate the odds of a deal before April 30 at 20%, down from 35% on Friday.

Despite gapping lower at the open, US Equities are remaining extremely resilient, with the S&P 500 holding right below unchanged and only the Dow Jones pulling back (~ -0.50%). The moves are still quite timid, definitely not pointing to a return of widespread panic.

While the Middle East situation remains in a status quo, traders are still maintaining optimistic views on the conflict's future. It is wise to keep a close eye on the latest developments to be ready to trade accordingly.

While doubts remain, it is always best to remain ready. Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

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The Market picture is quite cloudy, with many of the largest names hanging close to unchanged as Participants still uncertain on what to do next.

Producer manufacturing is a laggard while Tech (particularly electronics) are attempting a rebound.

Once again, sectorial trading seems quite compromised amid recent confusion, hence it could be more strategic to either focus on individual stocks or Index trading to avoid getting caught in crosswinds.

The Dow Jones Index gapped lower at the Open, struggling the most out of the three main US benchmarks. However, sellers could not continue their short-lived dominance and a rebound attempt is already on the way.

For the short-term, look at 48,000 for immediate bull/bear guidance, as this will be a target for the ongoing rebound.

• Rejecting it points to more downside ahead, pointing towards 47,000
• Breaking back above 48,000 would look to retest the past week highs (48,300) – Above this, the action turns long-term bullish.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Pivot at 48,000 (short-term bearish below)
• March 4 resistance 48,250 - 48,300 (bull above)
• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200

Support Levels

• Major Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (Session lows)
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,300
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq remains persistent within its 25,000 to 25,250 area, forming a short-term consolidation range.

The longer the action stays in that zone, the higher the chances of an upside breakout.

Nonetheless, this zone is a longer-run resistance, hence any bearish outflow could see heavy momentum – Keep track of sentiment for more precise execution.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 (top at 25,250!)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistance
• Major resistance 25,700 to 25,850

Support Levels

• 24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot
• 24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal Support
• Feb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200
• Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is already running back towards its Friday highs as traders maintain further hopes for continued talks.

Breaking 6,840 puts the Index on a bullish short-term outlook. Failing to breach this level maintains a more rangebound outlook ahead.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Early March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (testing)
• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975

Support Levels

• Major Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)
• 6,580 to 6,610 Support
• 4H 50-period MA 6,550
• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

The narrative is still confusing, so keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

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