Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 25
Fed pricing has gone completely bipolar in the past few weeks, progressively decreasing from near 25 bps certainty to a mere 20%, only to whip back to 82% in a matter of days.
Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi
Some data showed up and shifted the narrative this morning, but overall, the fundamental picture remains consistent:
Employment is still trending lower, with the latest private employment figures showing a contraction (ADP weekly report at -13.5K vs -2.5K last week), and inflation remains too high for the Fed to be fully comfortable—though perhaps not too high to prevent a move (PPI came as expected, the Core actually missed by 0.1%)
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joined the likes of Williams and Waller in their dovish view, though her impact is limited by the fact that she will only be a voting member in 2027.
No matter the rhetoric, the Fed will be squarely focused on the next high-tierdata point before their December 10th decision: the Core PCE release on December 5th.
Stock markets, particularly the Dow Jones, absolutely loved the "bad news is good news" data, surging back well above the 47,000 mark and finishing up around 1.40% on the session.
Except for Nvidia, which took quite a hit today (though it managed to close well off its lows), the entire stock market ran higher.
And, as per usual this year, Gold and other precious metals joined the rally.
It seems cuts are really good for everyone, huh!
US Equity Heatmap (Session Close) – November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Conservative Equities (Dow Jones and European Stocks) loved the weaker Dollar today, which diverged quite a bit from the Tech-sector.
And the same could be said for US Bonds and Gold – Assets in the back of the risk-curve were of heavier demand from the daily move.
Semiconductors and Cryptos have both struggled a bit today, taking the Nasdaq to a fairly muted performance compared to its peers.
But the worst performer is once again Oil, which posted strong resilience in previous session before getting ransacked by the better Eastern-Europe developments.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
Currency Performance, November 25 – Source: OANDA Labs
FX Markets woke up today after the weaker US Data.
The GBP is among the winners, as it has been rallying from some troughs after the much-anticipated UK Budget got released – Notice the end-session profit-taking. The rebound in the pound might not just be a one way higher.
You can learn more on the Budget and its effect on the GBP right here.
The JPY is also posting quite a rebound. Keep an eye on this as it a strong reversal there could shape the future FX action.
A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
The session is not over yet for AUD and NZD traders, who will be at the center of volatility throughout the overnight session.
AUD traders will have to monitor the Australian CPI numbers, releasing this evening at 20:30 ET.
However, the evening will really heat up with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 ET.
A 25 bps cut is expected (bringing rates to 2.25%), but the real mover will be the forward guidance in the Statement and Press Conference—markets are anxious to see if the easing cycle is nearing its end.
Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) should also be quite eventful after tonight's central bank action.
The overnight session will turn eyes towards Europe, where the focus will be less on data and more on policy rhetoric.
ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 13:00 (ET).
The US Session should be even more active, quenching the thirst for data before the Thanksgiving holiday break.
The first moves will come from the Durable Goods Orders (Sep) at 9:30 A.M. ET.
Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, released a day in advance (expected at 225K) will provide the latest pulse check on the labor market.
Later in the morning, the Chicago PMI follows at 10:45 A.M., and the day rounds out with the Fed's Beige Book at 15:00, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across the districts.
Safe Trades!
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