Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook

• Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil prices
• The Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a deal
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD

After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets.

While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets.

Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.

The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place.

The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.

Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.

Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction.

If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.

Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Read More:

• Back at all-time highs, Investors take a break – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focus
• USD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX Analysis

Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.

For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.

In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.

A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,800 4H 200-period MA
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• $4,781 50-MA short-term support
• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100

Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.

Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.

If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $79
• 4H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and a successful week!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier