Back at all-time highs, Investors take a break – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks extended to some fresh new record on Friday, but the euphoria is coming to a stall
• The US-Iran Ceasefire is coming to an end on April 22, so Investors are looking for further developments from here
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US Stock Benchmarks extended to fresh record highs on Friday, but the wall of euphoria is officially hitting a stall as a massive geopolitical deadline looms.

The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday, April 22, and the market is growing increasingly anxious. Investors are desperately looking for further developments to justify current Market pricing, especially following recent reports that President Trump will not extend the ceasefire—and won't open the Strait of Hormuz—unless a finalized deal is signed.

The diplomatic timeline has been frustratingly erratic.

High-stakes negotiations were initially supposed to take place last Thursday before being pushed to the weekend, and now finally into this week.

JD Vance apparently still hasn't left to Islamabad to kick off the new rounds of talks, and Wall Street is now done trading on rumors only. Investors are now demanding concrete advancements before they fund the next leg of this peace trade.

Odds for a Peace deal are remaining stuck below 40%, failing to extend above in recent days, and the turn from the White House rhetoric isn't helping much.

This underlying caution is already showing up in the charts. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recently reached stunning new records, the Dow Jones—often a much more stable guide to broad Market appetite—has failed to gather the strength needed to push to all-time highs.

This divergence is a glaring signal: smart money is still highly skeptical that the global economy will seamlessly revert to its pre-war normal. That skepticism is heavily reinforced in the energy sector, where WTI Crude remains uncomfortably sticky around the $90 handle.

With the clock ticking down to Wednesday and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance, let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focus
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control
• A real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly Outlook

The Market is once again sending mixed signals, with Mega Caps taking a hit, but the rest remaining quite resilient on the session.

The first week of earnings has been very decent, so that maintains a decent bid in Stocks, but the small changes on the session can only confirm the hesitancy from recent geopolitics.

The DJIA gapped back to 49,000 at the start of the week, limited in its progress by the rebound in WTI Crude and the lack of diplomatic progress.

Now testing its gap fill at 49,560, a key test is showing up ahead:

• Extending above the 49,760 Friday highs hints at a continuation above
• On the other hand, a rejection of the gap fill would hint at a break of the ceasefire bull channel.
  • The 4H 50-period MA would be a decent test in such an occurrence.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Weekend Gap fill 49,460 (testing)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq has now extended well above its prior all-time highs in a 17% firework – But the bullish momentum is coming to a stall.

The RSI Momentum is largely diverging, hinting at a stalling in the price action until Markets learn more on the Fundamental issue.

• The base case is for a retest of the 26,200 prior all-time highs, a decent place of entry for optimists
• Breaking 26,000 would hint at a larger pull-back (~25,500) in the event where momentum fails to persist

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750
• New all-time highs 26,736
• Potential Resistance at 27,000

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Support
• War Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is holding even better standards compared to its peers, also retesting its week-end gap fill (~7,110).

• Rejecting it would, like Nasdaq, point to a test of its prior all-time highs (~7,000 - 7,020)
• Rebounding from there should easily lead to new all-time highs (barring a worse fundamental outlook) as this also coincides with a test of the upward Channel

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Week-end gap 7,100 resistance (testing)
• New all-time resistance 7,150
• Next key potential resistance 7,200

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

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