Prudent optimism in Wall Street as US-Iran talks could confirm – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks have formed a swift bottom since President Trump leaked US-Iran talk rumors – Which could be getting confirmed
• Prudent optimism is now slowly turning the wave on escalation fears in the Middle East
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Volatility is the new norm in 2026. If anybody's surprised, they haven't done their homework properly!

Donald Trump is a controversial President – He moves Markets in high fashion almost every session, sometimes even more often.

After last year's TACOs, the President, Commander-in-Chief of the US Army, is shifting assets in up-and-down flashes through his new Department of War and ceaseless surprises.

The first polemic was the capture of Venezuelan dictator/President Nicolas Maduro, and the second is the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War, which commenced at the beginning of the Month.

But this isn't Trump's first investiture. On his first, he was also similarly moving Markets – today, he introduced a new shift in rhetoric regarding the Middle East conflict.

He mentioned, initially in a Truth Social post and then in a public address, that US-Iran talks are back on the table, not even four full weeks into the War. The initial reactions were aggressive and swift, but Traders suddenly held their breaths as Iran denied such headlines.

Read More: Crazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market Check

But looking into the details, a breaking news story could really confirm the latest claims from the US President, as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf officially flew to Pakistan with American and Israeli approval – this would confirm the potential talks that should happen in the near future.

The issue for risk assets and Market sentiment is that things won't be clear until the War officially ends; more particularly, when ships and tankers are finally able to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are now stabilizing after a surreal spike in volatility in the morning session – Yields are much lower than their Friday scary highs, pricing for hikes is evaporating, and Gold dipped to $4,100 but is now stabilizing above $4,400.

You know these are unforeseen times when hikes and cuts are priced in at the same time – even the Fed doesn't know what to price, so that shouts further pauses as Participants await the fog to clear.

We will see more throughout this week and the next, which will conclude the 5-week operational timeline – will it extend further? If yes, the bottom could not be in yet for Stocks!

In the meantime, the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq are leading to the upside, off their 3% and 2.40% respective highs, but still up a fair amount on the session.

Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Global liquidity squeeze, HSI sharply lower on Trump ultimatum & the week ahead
• Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/oz
• Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly Outlook

There are a few individual names struggling across sectors, but Tech is seeing the most of them.

Producer Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Consumer Durables and Utilities are on the other hand shining from the renewed hopes.

The DJIA responded strikingly to the test of its January 2025 all-time high level (45,283), bouncing close to 3% from its lows in a flash when the headline came out.

Now testing the highs of its downward channel, bulls will have to make sure to break it to relaunch better hopes for a rebound.

• The trend is short-term bullish above 46,660 and this confirms above 47,000.
• Rejecting back below the 2H 50-period MA (46,260) would confirm further doubts towards continued downside.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Channel higher bound 46,660
• Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)
• Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• 48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistance

Support Levels

• March 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300 – 2H 50 MA
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Morning rebound)
• 45,700 to 45,900 mini-support
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq is still somehow remaining tightly into its 23,500 to 25,000 broader range, after reacting swiftly to its August 2025 support area at the headline.

Still, the 2H 50-period MA seems to be a point of pressure for Sellers, so bulls will want to see a break and close above to confirm the rebound.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 24,375 2H 50 MA
• 24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)
• Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• February Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Morning lows: August 2025 next Support at 23,580 to 23,700
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 was rushing lower in the overnight futures session but the change in the fundamental tone brought it back to life.

Bulls have officially held the Index back above its double-bottom level (6,560) but is now contained by an upper and lower boundary:

• Above 6,650, the short-term momentum gets short-term bullish
  • Bull momentum confirms above 6,700
• Below 6,560, bears are back in control.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Pivot 6,640 to 6,650
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom support
• 6,490 to 6,512 October lows
• 6,442 Morning Lows
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!

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