Optimism fades and Nasdaq burns its wings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks face a rougher morning session in the US as optimism around US-Iran talks fades
• The cautious rebound wasn't long, as expected after a consistent failure to see progress in the talks
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

The narrative improved throughout this week, but that wasn't without counting another turn from President Trump.

As the week went on, Participants could not see a concrete bullish extension materialize, as headlines were definitely not corroborating the idea of better news ahead.

After rejecting the 15-point plan from the US Administration, the President soured his precedingly softer tone.

Certainly, news of indirect talks soothed what had seemed to be the beginning of an escalation over the last weekend. Still, a failure to even reach a common ground can quickly lead to a sudden re-escalation.

And as the 4,500-strong Marine fleet (with heavy Army material) is soon to arrive in the Arabian Sea, traders are now casting doubt on the possibility of easing tensions ahead.

Iran seems to be persistent on some of its demands; reaching a deal too soon with the ongoing War damage would surely put a band-aid on Market fears and help ease some pressure on Oil supply.

Nonetheless, this could prove temporary, as Iran can then be sure to leverage the power it exerts over the Strait of Hormuz and Energy commodity prices.

So either a decisive deal will be reached, or traders can expect the operations to continue. Next week will be the fifth since the commencement of the conflict – beyond this, Markets will turn to a more concerning pricing of a prolonged war.

We should learn more about these developments by Friday.

After a stable performance from Equities this week, traders are seeing a reality check in today's session, and this comes as Crude just refuses to remain lower as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under blockade.

Some of the largest names in the US Stock Markets have been struggling throughout the entire week, including Microsoft and Google in previous sessions, but this is now also spreading to Nvidia and Meta (-5.30%!).

The indeed Nasdaq Index is now facing the consequences of its previous relative strength, now trading below its key 24,000 level.

If the fundamental situation sours further from here, Stock Markets could easily resume their downtrend, having failed to manage a concrete breakout despite the Monday rebound.

Let's spot where today's softening price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish trend resumes below $4,620 as stagflation and oil strength weigh
• Latest on US-Iran, US dollar & UK CPI inflation remains at 3%

Except for a few individual names, the Energy sector and small caps in Pharma, the broader Market could not sustain the turn in sentiment.

Some clues pointing to this fragile context for equities was the fact that the rebound throughout this week could not generate much traction and consistency across sectors, as indicated in our past session's analysis.

The Dow is facing pressure from its failed breakout above 46,600 – As indicated in our Monday analysis of the Index, as long as bulls can't break this level, buying momentum remains weak.

Above 47,000 will be a confirming sign for rebounds.

On the other hand, bears should watch the 50-period MA ont he 2H timeframe (currently testing) – any 1H close below 46,200 will maintain the bear channel.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 46,600 intraday momentum resistance
• Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)
• Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• 48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistance

Support Levels

• 4H 50-period MA 46,200 (testing)
• March 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300.
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Monday lows)

Nasdaq is now well within bearish territory, extending towards the lows of its 23,840 Support zone.

It has remained remarkably resilient throughout the beginning of the conflict and is now paying this price, with its heavy Mag 7 components struggling as risk-sentiment sours (and profit-taking continues).

If Bulls can't manage a rebound at 23,840, expect at least a test of the 23,597.

The next key support will be at the 23,000 psychological level.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 24,107 2H 50-period MA
• 24,450 to 25,550 resistance
• Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• October - November Support 23,840 to 24,000 (testing)
• August 2025 & War Lows at 23,580 to 23,700
• Next Main Support at 23,000 higher timeframe support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is tumbling below its key 6,560 support after rejecting 6,650 and now in a decisively bearish formation.

6,500 is the next test, breaking it has the potential to test 6,400 (next major psychological support).

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Resistance 6,640 to 6,650
• 6,570 to 6,600 Double Bottom Pivot
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,490 to 6,512 October lows
• 6,442 War Lows
• 6,400 Next Major psychological support

Safe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!

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