Precious metals breakout: Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) tariffs outlook

• Silver and Gold dominate commodity flows after the latest tariff turmoil
• Demarking from their peers in the metals space, the two best performers are breaking out. Will it continue?
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD (Silver) and XAU/USD (Gold)

It has been a wild ride for metals in 2026 and bulls are back to prop up the best performers of the asset class to a renewed breakout.

After a three week correction period, Silver and Gold are now attempting to revisit their all-time records.

Recent US tariff chaos has brought renewed uncertainty in global Markets, may it be around trade or even geopolitics, allowing precious metals to attract some interest.

A little reminder of the situation: we’ve entered a chaotic new chapter in the trade wars. After the Supreme Court officially dismantled the IEEPA Liberation Day tariffs last Friday, President Trump immediately pivoted to his plan B.

Within hours, he invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—a Nixon-era policy designed to fix balance-of-payments deficits—to slap a 10% (quickly raised to 15%) global surcharge on imports.

This measure is temporary (150 days) leading to immediate uncertainty on future US trade policies, normally expiring on July 23-24.

With $133 billion in illegal duties already collected under the now-defunct IEEPA regime (expiring tomorrow), the government is facing a budgetary nightmare as businesses line up for refunds. This is a huge compromise to the Administration's entire gameplan.

Gold are actually the dominant performers in the asset class, while Palladium, Platinum, and Copper struggle to gain significant momentum (broadly unchanged on the year).

Both the Yellow and Grey metals are getting propped up from recent tariff developments and Middle East anxiety.

The divergence in today's action shows one thing: the metals run is going to be more bumpy in the coming days.

What was seen as a broad Dollar debasement is now considered a trickier play, with only a few regional products and assets outperforming, while the others remain dormant or even sell off. The same could be said about Equities.

As explored countless times in our previous pieces, we are entering an age in which investors will have to be meticulous about where to place their pawns.

The age of random selection and everything rallying is now well over.

In the meantime, we will dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to spot where the ongoing breakout is taking us.

Read More:

• Stocks drop from tariff uncertainty – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook
• Markets Weekly Outlook - The gavel falls on global tariffs as inflationary fears return to the fold
• GBP/JPY marks a major top – Will it revert to 200.00? FX Technical Analysis

The Gold/Silver Ratio eased significantly from 100X to the current 60X level, right in the middle of the "Buy Gold at 40X, Sell Gold at 80X adage" zone.

Silver seems to be taking the momentum back in today's action but remains in a rough spot: Positioning, albeit less extreme than a month ago, could lead to less potential upside.

Asset Managers are still deemed to be heavily invested in precious metals, so keep a close eye on upcoming times.

Gold is back to a very bullish price action, evolving in a Tight bull channel ever since reaching $4,844 in Mid-February.

Despite the ongoing consequential rally, late buyers will have to be careful as prices reach the channel's upper bound and overbought RSI levels.

A pullback to $5,100 would provide the most interesting entries (given that sellers don't push Gold below). This level acts as a key magnet and Pivot level for price action bull/bear dominance.

If bulls manage to push the metal above $5,300 without a pullback however, a run to the $5,600 should soon follow.

Keep a very close eye on the 4H 200 MA, which acted as major support throughout the entire trend.

Technical Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $5,230 Channel Top (intraday highs)
• $5,300 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance
• Current All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900

Support Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot (bullish above)
• Mid-Feb lows $4,844
• Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bearish below
• Main Support $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Silver is also back to a very impressive bullish momentum, getting close to reaching $90 after breaching its 4H 200-Period MA.

Traders will have to be careful of the $90 to $95 higher timeframe resistance which acted as such in the early February rebound, particularly as overbought RSI conditions are arising.

Rejecting that area could take the action back to $84 which acts as a major pivot and could provide interesting dip-buying levels, similarly as what is seen in Gold.

• Any close above the February highs ($92.20), should lead to a retest of $100.

Technical Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Feb 4 highs $92.20
• Higher Timeframe Resistance $90 to $95
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• 2025 Record Pivot $82 to $84
• Key Momentum Support $76 to $77.50
• Major 2026 Support $70 to $72
• February lows $64
• $53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major Support

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier