Markets Today: NFP in Focus as Rate Cut Bets Tumble, NVIDIA Earnings Boost Sentiment

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Global stock markets went up because chip company Nvidia reported very strong expected sales, which made people less worried about a possible "bubble" or crash in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry.

The markets focused on technology, especially in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, saw the biggest increases. This happened after Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the huge demand for their AI chips from big internet companies and dismissed fears of an AI bubble. Other major Asian markets felt the same positive effect.

Although the gains didn't continue at the same high pace all day, the main stock indexes in Tokyo (up 2.6%), Korea (up 2.3%), and Taiwan (up 3.2%) all made large jumps, especially the companies that manufacture parts for the AI supply chain. For instance, major chip and tech-related companies like TSMC (up 4.3%), Samsung Electronics (up 5.3%), SK Hynix (up 2.2%), and Tokyo Electron (up 5.4%) all rose significantly.

A broad index of Asian stocks (excluding Japan) went up by 1.1%, recovering from a recent low. The positive momentum was further boosted by news that the US might postpone planned taxes on imported semiconductors, which could help ease trade disagreements with China.

European stock markets rose on Thursday, driven by a general feeling of relief across global markets. This positive mood followed the strong financial results reported by Nvidia.

The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was up by 1%, with markets in Germany and France also increasing by more than 1%. Nvidia's excellent quarterly results and promising future outlook came at a critical time, helping to calm investors who had been worried in recent weeks about a possible global AI bubble. Even though some concerns about an AI bubble still exist, Nvidia's performance temporarily lessened the anxiety, causing its shares listed in Frankfurt to jump by 6.2%.

The European technology index climbed by 1.8%, with chip-related companies like Infineon and ASML both gaining 2.8%. Companies that make equipment for the AI boom, such as Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy, also saw increases of 2% and 4%, respectively.

In company news, French bank BNP Paribas saw its shares rise by 5.7% after it announced a higher target for its financial stability measure (the CET1 ratio) for the year 2027.

On the FX front, the US dollar was strong on Thursday, having achieved its biggest single-day gain in six weeks. This strength came after notes from the Federal Reserve meeting suggested it was less likely that the US would cut interest rates in December.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell significantly because people are betting that Japan will not immediately intervene to stop the currency from weakening. The yen hit its lowest level in 10 months at 157.48. This decline started after Japan's Finance Minister indicated that there were no specific talks about foreign exchange at a meeting with the Bank of Japan Governor.

Other major currencies also weakened against the dollar: the euro fell to a two-week low of $1.1510, and the British pound (sterling) slipped to $1.3040. The New Zealand dollar had dropped sharply the day before, hitting a seven-month low of $0.5591, mainly because interest rate expectations in New Zealand are moving away from those in the US; it was stable on Thursday at $0.5611.

Overall, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.5% overnight and continued to climb, settling at 100.25.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices increased slightly on Thursday, recovering a bit after falling the day before. This small rise was caused by news that US crude oil supplies dropped by more than expected. This positive news for prices managed to outweigh concerns that the US trying to help end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could bring more oil onto the market, which is already well-supplied.

Specifically, Brent crude futures went up by 20 cents (or 0.31%) to $63.72 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 22 cents (or 0.37%) to $59.66 per barrel.

Gold price fell in early European trade as markets grappled with hawkish repricing of rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. A resurgent US Dollar has also weighed on the precious metal as the US Dollar Index trades above the 100.00 psychological barrier.

Read More:

• NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXY
• USD/JPY: Potential minor top at 155.30, USD at risk of bearish reversal towards 154.20/153.65
• Gold (XAU/USD): 9% dead cat bounce rally at risk of reversal, watch US$4,036 downside trigger

The European session will be quiet one in terms of data releases as markets begin to brace for the US session.

In the US session, attention will shift to the long-delayed official US jobs report, which is expected to influence what the Federal Reserve decides to do with its interest rate policy next month.

The report carries extra weight now that the BLS has confirmed that Jobs data for October will not be released while the November data will only be released after the Federal Reserves December meeting.

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the crucial 200-day MA and remains below the 50 level on the period-14 RSI. This hints at significant bearish momentum still in play.

Despite this, the optimism around NVIDIA could propel the index higher with a retest of the 200-day MA and a move higher a real possibility.

Immediate resistance rests at 9610 and 9661 before the 100-day MA at 9734 comes into focus.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025

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