An upbeat end to a chaotic month – North American Session Market Wrap for March 31

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 31

Today's month-end session was gladly welcomed by ever-ecstatic investors.

Yesterday's session really materialized into a powerful move to the upside across global assets as the narrative took a significant turn.

President Trump gradually pointed towards a lower resolve to maintain the defense of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that European and Gulf countries would be the ones in place to take car of the quintessential strategic route for Oil tankers – Currently the most important 10km region on the entire planet.

As Iran's President Pezeshkian confirmed, the talks are indeed ongoing and guarantees are demanded in order to move forward towards a more sustainable peace process.

As indicated in our fresh WTI in-depth analysis, odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still stuck around 25%, but this doesn't bar the way for de-escalation. This comes as a wonderful surprise to Participants which were gradually pricing for a long-lasting conflict.

The situation is still far of being entirely resolved, with conditions for a deal still fragile, "trust levels at zero", as said by Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi, but just the simple idea of less uncertainty for the time being is a welcomed gift for Markets.

Global assets exploded in today's action, with Silver up 7%, Gold up by 3%, Stock Indexes across the world following suit and Brent down 3% on the other hand.

Today's strong moves could also have been magnified by the Month-End position closures, hence tomorrow will be an important test:

• Continuation of today's optimism hints at further continuation and a deal properly taking place
• Rejecting today's highs would mark the contrary, with doubts re-gaining the scene and more pain ahead
  • A heavy fleet of US Marines are near and could still conduct a large operation if the narrative soured. Keep your eyes on this in case you see a swift turn in Markets.

Even when the conflict is done, traders will still have to be extremely careful with what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and Oil prices.

Read More:

• Brent-WTI falls to 2026 lows! Oil corrects as War resolution nears – WTI Outlook
• Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continue
• Stocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developments
• USD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlook

Today's was a long-hoped dream for dip-buyers, particularly as the early morning bounce saw significant continuation.

The Market was overtly ecstatic in today's rebound, hence continuation will be mandatory to avoid burnt wings and rough stops – What is sure is that we haven't seen such optimism in a long time.

Asset correlations have been a powerful tool to assist traders to navigate the past month's volatile conditions.

And today remained heavy on this setup, which may abate as traders move on, with virtually all assets exploding higher except for the Crude and US Dollar couple.

The dynamic won't be so straightforward if Oil remains above $100, so keep a close eye on the commodity!

European and Risk-currencies have done what they did best when risk-off flows abate, having rallied significantly from the turn of events.

Watch out for a lack of continuation if WTI remains elevated – Who takes care of the Strait of Hormuz going forward will be essential to track FX flows.

The Euro did see significant relief today, hence, keep track of EUR/USD and whether or not it continues its ascent in coming days!

Tomorrow's releases will be heavily focused on the US with Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs, with geopolitics once again taking the center stage for other macroeconomic movements.

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.

Safe Trades!

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