A skeptically positive session – North American session Market wrap for February 9

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 9

This week opens on a broadly positive note, with the Debasement Trade flows dominating today's session.

Profiting from a US Dollar sell-off, Tech Stocks, Commodities, FX Majors, and all rebounded after their struggles last week.

The Nasdaq is actually leading US Indexes for the first time since January 28, pointing to some mean-reversion flows and position closures ahead of this week's gigantic US data calendar.

But Markets remain skeptical – daily bounces occured in assets that have struggled at the start of February.

US equities are undergoing a stark rebalancing, maintaining the Dow Jones above 50,000, but the Index still faces significant challenges ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales and Wednesday's, before its breakout confirms – DJIA closes the session flat.

Commodities and Gold also rebounded, but face hurdles ahead.

The Bullion reaches $5,100 ahead of the key data, but will have to push above the level to maintain. Some safe-haven bids still underpin demand, particularly after recent Chinese Gold accumulation data.

Elsewhere, Japan's snap elections were a massive sweep in favor of Sanae Takaichi, removing one of the key catalysts for the Japanese Yen.

JPY is finishing on top of the FX board.

This session gives a certain sense of relief rallies in undersold assets, but that could really point to some Markets getting flat (reducing positions). Hence, watch out to not get caught in continuation traps ahead of this week's key events.

Discover: US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly Outlook

Note: I tend to provide a lot of warnings on Iran developments , but this tail risk deserves at least attention if not careful planning. US Military assets are still amassing near the Middle East, and despite the ongoing talks in Oman, the situation isn't yet to be forgotten.

This could have also helped the rise in Commodities today.

Read More:

• Rout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?
• Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook
• Chart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50
• NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/oz

Today really looked like a Debasement Trade Stocks session with Oracle, Microsoft, Palantir and Nvidia rebounding that way.

But watch out for short-positioning getting relieved (implying less potential for continuation) ahead of key releases.

Today really looked like we were in early October, except for Cryptos remaining muted for the most part.

Silver finishes on top of the asset board, but is selling off quite suddenly ahead of the COMEX close. Oil on the other hand did not give up its gains, up 2.30% today.

It was all about the US Dollar selloff today, profiting to the Swissie and Japanese Yen the most – It will be interesting to see if the Yen maintains a better road ahead.

Threats for an FX intervention by the Ministry of Finance are still quite active.

Watch out for these trends potentially stalling ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales data.

Monday evening is light on hard data, with markets guided mainly by Fed speakers (Bostic, Miran) and BoE’s Mann, setting the tone on policy bias. In Asia-Pac, Westpac consumer confidence will be the only concrete release.

Tuesday is the key risk event: US focus shifts to Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index, both crucial for the inflation-growth mix and near-term Fed expectations.

Hammack, Logan, the two most hawkish Fed voters could amplify any reaction.

Overnight, China CPI/PPI will be watched for deflation signals, while NAB business confidence adds a domestic check on Australia.

Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier