NFP fails to clear the view – North American session Market wrap for February 11

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The puzzle is still far from solved, and future rate cuts are now compromised, if anything.

This morning's Non-Farm Payrolls release sent a hawkish warning to a Market that had been taking it relatively easy with this year's pricing.

Even with the newly nominated Fed Chair, a path to lower rates in the US won't be easy, given the strong growth and a seemingly not-worsening labor picture.

Looking back at the Federal Reserve's communications throughout last year's cuts, they were all justified by a softening US Employment Market, but looking at public BLS data, the situation isn't worsening much further.

US inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%, and with the more hawkish Regional Presidents voting this year, taking out cuts at the March and June meetings was an easy decision for rates traders.

The final test of this week's high-tier releases will take place on Friday (CPI), with participants slowly turning back to economic data clues for Market direction.

Markets have remained in a tight range after this morning's conflicting NFP report, with US Indexes correcting slightly from their early morning gains, closing unchanged; Metals remaining at key levels ($5,100 for Gold, $84 for Silver); yields rising; and the US Dollar profiting from the repricing.

Elsewhere, US President Trump mentioned his preference for a deal with Iran to reduce uncertainty in Markets, which holds the highest importance in Trump's eyes.

Oil lost some of its gains after the comments, particularly as it coincided with a significant rise in US inventory levels, but it still holds its upward channel.

The energy commodity is now back above $65.

Read More:

• Is the US Labor Market really holding well? – North American Mid-Week Market update
• Hawkish NFP sends Stocks lower – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook
• USD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data?

Today's Stock Market picture did not show any particular trend except for Nvidia which bounced back to positive as the session went and Defensive/Energy stocks still attracting the most inflows to pursue last week's trend.

Except for metals remaining strong within their newly established range, the Market is now looking for any major trend to emerge. Stocks are remaining rangebound, Oil is trending higher but with erraticity and the US Dollar remains at the lows of its 8-month consolidation.

Things will surely change and get more volatile towards the end of the week (particularly with CPI which I can't emphasize enough!)

JPY is extending its huge reversal against its peers, getting joined by another wave of strength in the Australian Dollar.

The latter really seems to be taking the front spot for FX performance in 2026 and with the RBA being the only Central Bank back to hiking rates, this trend should continue until data tones down.

Except for UK GDP and Jobless Claims, tomorrow should be quite a snoozer as traders get ready for Friday's US CPI report

Safe Trades and as per usual, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!

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