Confusion regarding the Peace process continues – North American Session Market Wrap for April 20

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Markets kicked off the week with a decidedly mixed outlook – the highly anticipated second round of diplomatic talks failed to materialize over the weekend, leaving traders empty-handed as the geopolitical timeline continues to face frustrating delays.

The rhetoric between Washington and Tehran is turning increasingly passive-aggressive.

President Trump drew a hard line in the sand today, stating definitively that the current ceasefire will end this Wednesday and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain firmly closed until a comprehensive deal is officially signed.

With Iranian officials simultaneously signaling deep doubts about the negotiation framework and threatening to walk away, energy markets reacted violently.

Both WTI and Brent crude oil gapped higher on the open, ultimately closing the session up a strong 5.80% as the fear of a renewed conflict quickly repriced the war uncertainty.

Unsurprisingly, the sudden spike in energy costs forced stock indexes and most risk assets to gap lower at the opening bell. However, the buy the dip algorithms are still stubbornly active, helping the session to withstand the fundamental pressure.

Yet, the complete failure to extend the rally any higher than those Friday closes confirms the deep confusion currently paralyzing the market. Wall Street is essentially holding its breath, completely hostage to the looming April 22 ceasefire expiration.

In other major news, the macroeconomic spotlight shifts back to monetary policy tomorrow. Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate for his confirmation hearing at 10:00 AM.

Warsh is reportedly planning to aggressively reinstate the narrative of strong Fed independence. This could act as a massive catalyst, so keep a very close eye on the US Dollar, Treasuries, and related currency pairs as his testimony unfolds—volatility is guaranteed.

Read More:

• Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook
• ECB waits for signals from the economy. War with Iran raises risks to inflation and growth in the euro area
• Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin shrugs off sluggishness and targets recent highs. Is $80000 a possibility?

The Stock Market picture rotated throughout the day, without indexes moving the slightest – Healthcare and Energy took a downside turn while a few names in Tech and Non-energy durables helped to maintain sentiment relatively up-lifted.

Stock Markets remain broadly unchanged on the session (after selling off in the morning).

Having now turned the page on Financials, the earning season turns slowly towards consumer products, helping to see how Retail Sales are holding in beginning 2026 – Expectations will be elevated when looking at the current Stock Market picture, so traders will have to be careful.

The higher-tier earnings reports will be coming up later in the week.

As can be seen, despite the gigantic rally in WTI at the open, Global Stock Markets remained surprisingly strong and are remaining surprisingly resilient to any bad news.

The buy-the-rumors on the peace process continues; Investors will have to make sure that they won't sell on any type of news (they will require a very positive deal to continue the extension higher from there after such a strong rally).

The US Dollar seems to have struggled once again despite the gap higher in WTI, but looking at the Dollar Index, FX is stuck in quite a range as of late (Particularly USD and European pairs).

The Aussie Dollar is on the other hand doing its own work, consistently outperforming its major peers in recent weeks – Check out our recent analysis to learn more.

The next 24 hours will be filled with high-tier, but sporadic releases.

This evening begins with New Zealand inflation which will prove to be a decisive factor for the pricing of potential rate hikes with the RBNZ. Any clear inflation beat will price in hikes and should help the Kiwi Dollar for the time being.

Watch out for the reverse scenario also!

The UK will send out their own Employment numbers in the overnight, so GBP traders will have to be careful with their positioning and orders (2:00 A.M. Release).

The US session will also be quite full, with Retail Sales at 8:30, Kevin Warsh's appearance at the Senate at 10:00 A.M. and Ceasefire deal news.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

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