Referenced assets
Another week, another absolutely chaotic session all across the Market board.
This morning came with some much better news for the conflict – US-Iran talks are picking up for the first time since the end of February, and that's creating a crazy shift in Markets, to say the least.
After another gap above $100 per barrel in WTI at the Globex Open, Oil prices have been tumbling to lows not seen since March 11.
WTI is down around 12% on the session, back to ~$88 after the news.
Brent is also back below $100 for the first time since March 13.
The conflict isn't going to end suddenly, but this marks a flashy cooling in tensions, especially after recent fears of escalation over the weekend, with Saudi Arabia expressing heavy discontent with the latest Iranian attacks on Riyadh.
The US also threatened to strike power plants in Iran as retaliation for the continued pressure on the Strait of Hormuz – The deadline for such is Monday evening, but this could now be averted.
This culminated in a re-start of talks between the US and Iran, as announced by President Trump in a morning Truth Social Post and public address, and led to waves of crazy swings around all asset classes.
Gold dove to $4,100, now bouncing higher
Gold, along with the entire Metals space, has been subject to wild volatility throughout the past weeks.
After failing to regain its early 2026 $5,600 record despite the conflict, large profit-taking culminated in a significant price tumble of close to 25% to $4,101.
It did rebound sharply back to around $4,400, a key momentum level for upcoming action (Neutral/Bullish above, bearish below).
The culprit was the renewed inflationary fears that dragged global assets lower – But those are significantly easing as we speak, with the recent moves in Energy commodities.
This has led to a swift easing in Market sentiment, with Equities across the globe sharply higher from their newfound lows.
The largest gains were found in Japan, up close to 4% in this weekly open session – Risk assets have a lot to recover, but this provides at least a bit of relief in narrative.
Still, the conflict is not entirely over and Strait of Hormuz traffic still aims to pick up again, so waves of volatility could still arise.
Nasdaq is leading US Indexes in their gigantic rebound, currently up around 2%.
A Stock Index update will be coming up in the early afternoon session.
The US Dollar marks a top after the FOMC
The US Dollar is now officially evolving within a bear channel, with some rebound attempts at the channel lows.
Keep a close eye on the 99.50 level in the Dollar Index, rejecting it could provide interesting short opportunities agains the USD in major pairs.
This would also need to coincide with a more decisive correction in Oil.
Breaking 98.70 would confirm a longer-run correction in the US Dollar.
Cryptos keep recovering, Bitcoin back above $70,000
Bitcoin is back above $70,000 but momentum remains timid; Ethereum remains relatively aims to regain $2,200.
Note: Things are moving extremely fast, and we are already seeing some profit-taking on the morning moves as the London Fix approaches – such moves provide swift opportunities, but they are mostly short-term rather than long-term.
Of course, not discarding the fact that long-term opportunities could indeed be unfolding.
As traders, these are great times to scalp markets, finding quick trades up and down across classes and with headlines. Key levels are reacting well, so make sure to check out your Technical Analysis to profit and be well prepared.
Volatility won't cool down and stabilize until the official end of the conflict. It's still not entirely there, but things are starting to look better. Stocks and risk assets are correcting again as WTI ticks higher, so watch its movements closely today.
Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day, as today is promised to be quite volatile.
Safe Trades!
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