Gold Price Forecast: Bullion settles at $4077 on mixed NFP data, Fed increasingly hawkish

At the time of writing, gold trades at $4077 per troy ounce, having erased gains made prior to the months-delayed September US Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Relatively unchanged at -0.02% in today’s session, gold currently trades approximately 7.00% shy of all-time highs made in October, and remains on pace to secure a remarkable yearly gain of over 50% in 2025.

What’s next for gold?

• Picking up in volatility in recent weeks, precious metal markets remain highly active as markets readjust expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December 10th decision

• With yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealing “strongly differing views” in the most recent meeting, a better-than-expected September NFP report adds to rationale to slow down the Fed’s current easing cycle

• Albeit now concluded, the US government shutdown and the knock-on effect on data availability still cast a shadow over financial markets, with many using gold as a hedge against policy risk and a perceived decline in central bank efficacy

Market Insights Podcast (20/11/2025): Listen to me and TraderNick discuss markets today: September NFP, Bitcoin, NVIDIA earnings and BoE rate cut bets

Having had at least some dealings with the financial markets for the best part of ten years now, today marks a special occasion, being the first time I’m discussing nonfarm payrolls on the 20th of the month.

While I can only speak for myself, I’m happy to see NFP back on the calendar in any capacity, especially considering the lack of economic data in the last month or so.

With that said, this brings us back to today, and, albeit representing conditions from some time ago, today saw the release of September’s nonfarm payroll report, which beat expectations by +69,000 jobs.

Keeping our focus on precious metal markets, let’s discuss some implications for gold, as well as further macroeconomic themes currently at play.

Let’s start by addressing the most recent and obvious fundamental happening in the last twelve hours - the September NFP report.

Delayed just shy of two months owing to the US government shutdown, September’s numbers beat expectations by some margin. However, the report also noted rising unemployment to 4.4%, its highest level since 2021, as well as downward revisions to both July and August numbers.

While this is fairly mixed on the surface, markets have received some assurance that the US labour market was stronger than expected before the US government shutdown took place.

Speaking of which, we’ve also recently had confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that October’s NFP release will not be postponed indefinitely, and alongside the delayed release of November’s report, today serves as the last NFP report available before the Federal Reserve votes again on interest rates early December.

Tying this all together, and considering the most recent data, albeit two months old, shows some buoyancy in the US labour market, this will not only somewhat relieve the pressure for further rate cuts by the Fed, but further vindicates a pre-existing hawkish tilt, best described by Vice Chair Jefferson’s commitment to “proceed slowly” in the current easing cycle.

Read my coverage on USD/CHF from earlier this week, including comments by Vice Chair Jefferson

On gold pricing, there’s no surprise that any notion of higher interest rates spells trouble for the current rally in gold pricing, with price action in the last week or so, alongside the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance, testament to this.

At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool predicts rates will be maintained in the upcoming meeting, currently at odds of 60.2%, with a 39.8% chance of a rate cut.

It’s worth noting that, just a few short weeks ago, directly following the October decision, markets had almost ‘nailed-on’ a consecutive rate cut in December, with this change of expectations going some way in explaining the pullback seen in precious metal pricing.

Released yesterday, minutes shared from the October rate decision highlight an increasingly divided group of policymakers ahead of the December decision, adding further rationale to expectations of rates being left unchanged.

In brief, the meeting can be summarised as follows:

• “Several” participants believed that another rate in December could be justified if the labour market continues to slow. Naturally, today’s NFP raises some questions over this
• “Many” others deemed that a maintenance of the current rate, held at 4.00%, would be the appropriate choice in December, especially considering the lack of economic data to guide decisions in recent months
• Focus seems to be primarily on the jobs market, as opposed to inflation or economic activity, which makes today’s NFP report, which will be the last before the December decision, even more significant

Read the full October FOMC Minutes here

For reasons discussed above, at least one result is a dampening of gold upside, which would likely receive a second wind if rates were to be cut.

While the above casts some shadow on gold upside, markets are currently asking one question: How can the Fed make the right decision with no data?

On this basis, and despite the notion that higher interest rates are inherently gold negative, there is some evidence that markets are using gold as a hedge against policy failure.

Put simply, and while the Fed could be forgiven considering the lack of data, suppose a decision to hold in December was found to be, in hindsight, the wrong decision when more data is made available, this could spell trouble for the dollar, making gold a more attractive option to store wealth by comparison.

Albeit a minor theme at play, this could offer some precious metals upside, as markets are less confident of the Fed’s grasp on current conditions, although by no fault of their own.

I’m pleased to say that, as per my previous coverage, the first price target of $4,090 was hit in yesterday’s session.

Going forward, here are some other levels to consider:

• Price target/Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistance
• Price target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highs
• Support #1 - $4,031 - 20-Period SMA
• Support #2 - $4,000 - Key psychological level
• Support #3 - $3,889 - Swing low

While, in fairness, my commentary above suggests a somewhat bearish angle in the short term for gold, it’s essential to remember that gold has rallied in response to other macro factors this year, despite a staunchly hawkish Fed for much of 2025.

To the downside, the yellow metal remains well supported by many moving averages, as well as the key psychological level of $4,000, which was breached for the first time earlier this year.

Otherwise, and in the immediate, we have seen a few pin bars to suggest that there is further bullish appetite for gold, despite a more hawkish Fed putting a lid on 2025 upside - at least for now.

Read Elior’s coverage on the cryptocurrency markets in today’s session: Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 record