Gold pushes to pre-FOMC record, holding the Metals Market – XAU/USD and Metals Outlook

• After Gold reached $5,000, other metals are selling off
• Signs from previous weeks could point to a larger correction depending on the FOMC outlook
• Technical analysis for XAG/USD (Gold), XAU/USD (Silver) and XPT/USD (Platinum) & FOMC trading levels

A lot has changed since our last high-timeframe outlook, reminding us that black swan events can affect any projections and expectations in a matter of a headline and a session.

The start of 2026 has been marked by chaotic headlines and geopolitical events, which is now a new norm. Some call it the New World Order (or New World Disorder).

Last weekend offered quite a show across Markets and journals as the US President decided to threaten additional tariffs to European nations in his latest temper tantrum:

Donald Trump reaffirmed his desire to acquire Greenland, sparking widespread concern ahead of the World Economic Conference, held in Davos last week.

The immediate reactions were flash US Dollar selloffs and Metals extending much higher in a newfound risk-off move.

Despite the headlines materializing into something much less concerning for the world as we know it, the confidence damage from the latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has prolonged the damage to the Greenback and supported the precious commodities.

About a week after the headlines, Silver reached the $100 milestone while Gold accelerated to $5,000, not even mentioning the swift rises in Platinum, Palladium, and other metals.

Shortly after reaching the new milestones, however, some divergences between metals have emerged and are turning into quite sudden reversals.

Silver topped suddenly at $117 after a 27% weekly explosion, Platinum spiked at $2,884 and now stands 12% lower while Gold holds solidly above $5,000.

Ahead of FOMC events, moves can be exaggerated by lower volumes and orders, which can push supply and demand to have a more significant impact on prices – a result of the past two days of action in Commodities and the US Dollar.

The most extensive tests for the run in metals are about to unfold, both regarding the Federal Reserve:

• The first is tomorrow's monthly FOMC meeting (the first of eight in 2026) – a cut is far from priced in (only 3%), so participants will be listening very closely to what Powell says during his press conference.
• The second, less predictable, is the nomination for the next Fed Chair – Powell's term as Chair ends in May 2026 (but will be able to remain at the Board of Governors).
• Rick Rieder is now the favorite, not far in front of Kevin Warsh – This only looks at the current Prediction-Market odds.
• Some geopolitical events could still largely change the picture.

Let's dive right into a technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) to spot where the current trend stands, just ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Read More:

• Technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC Rate decision
• Chart alert: Silver 13% flash crash has not damaged its bullish trend
• How long can the Fed still defend its independence?

Gold easily brushed through any pessimistic outlook as the geopolitical tone worsened yet again.

After remaining dormant in the first few trading days of 2026, the Bullion managed a swift push to daily new records, forming a technical Tight Bull Channel.

Last week's push was consistent, backed by the changing fundamental environment.

As other metals now struggle, XAU is showing why it's the ultimate safe-haven: As its peers are giving up their high gains, it remains strongly above $5,000 (and nearing $5,100 as we speak).

A potential US Intervention in Iran is still looming.

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will have a high chance to affect the current flows.

• A neutral/hawkish Fed (base case) could reduce demand, which may prompt a correction to at least $4,600
• A dovish Fed (less likely) would pump gold to swift new highs (a quick test of potential resistance around $5,300).
  • The same would follow in other metals.

In terms of Fed nominees, some analysts argue that Rick Rieder would be bearish on metals (bullish on Bonds and the USD) while Kevin Warsh would keep the trend as it is.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Resistance
• $5,115 All-time highs and running
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,250 to $5,350
• Next psychological level at $5,500

Support Levels:

• Preceding ATH Pivot $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish below
• Channel break-retest around $4,800 (+/- $30)
• 20-Day Moving average $4,635
• Pivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

The ongoing parabolic ascension remains historic as the devil's metal elevates to new record highs, up at whopping 27% since January 16!

A $10 move is now the new normal in the ongoing reckless squeeze – A note to take into account in case volatility keeps rising from here.

The metal reached $117, just shy of $120. After reaching the new record, a flash-sale took Silver to a retest of the $102 level.

Shorter timeframes indicate a triangle consolidation as the pre-FOMC action looks undecided.

• Breaking below its support could point to a swifter retracement, with the $93 to $95 being a reasonable target – A larger retracement could of course occur (watch out for mean-reversion in such violent markets).
• Any push to new record could easily take the metal to the $125 psychological level.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $114 to $117 Current ATH Resistance
• Current record $117.75
• $125.00 Next Psychological Resistance

Support Levels:

• $100 Psychological level
• $93.50 to $96.00 Jan 20 Highs – Current Momentum Pivot
• Mini-Support $83 to $85
• Minor Support $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish below
• Christmas lows $70
• Pivotal Support $48 to $50

Platinum looks poised for a test of its upward-channel lower bound around $2,350 to $2,390 after stalling its rise suddenly.

Bears appeared in the metal quickly after Gold reached $5,000 while XPT/USD wicked at $2,882.

With the current action more looking like of consolidation/slight correction, it will be very interesting to see if bulls manage to retake the upper hand after the FOMC.

• A daily close above $2,695 points to new record highs
• Failing to do so may trigger a sharper correction in the Precious Metal – Look at its 20-Day Moving Average ($2,353).

Technical Levels to watch for Platinum (XPT/USD)

Resistance Levels:

• Key level to breach for bulls: $2,695
• Retest Resistance $2,700 to $2,770
• Current Main Resistance $2,880 to $3,000
• Current all-time highs $2,882

Support Levels:

• $2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot
• 20-Day Moving Average $2,353
• $2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support
• 50-Day Moving average $2,000
• 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920

Similarly as in our previous Metals outlook, it is essential to remind that participating in such moves can be hazardous as stops can easily trigger in volatile environments.

Keep your risk, orders and positions in check while trading these historic markets, particularly as the FOMC approaches and geopolitical turmoil still looms.

Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves!

Safe Trades!

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