Forex: All News & Analysis

Oil volatile after a week of mixed messages, US inflation bad news for gold

Oil markets volatile ahead of OPEC+ meeting next weekend Oil prices are recovering slightly after a volatile week amid conflicting commentary from key members of the OPEC+ alliance. From a "watch out" warning from the Saudi Energy Minister to a suggestion that the group will not cut output next weekend, traders have been left a little confused as to what we can expect. It may be that Saudi Arabia wants to keep traders on their toes but to make these comments and not follow through could be perce

26-05-2023 12:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - Dollar strengthens after FOMC minutes, UK inflation a concern

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about how recent events have impacted GBPUSD, with the FOMC minutes signaling a divide on interest rates and UK inflation problematic for the BoE.

26-05-2023 12:25 GMT by Craig Erlam

Debt-Limit talks advance and there goes the cooling inflation narrative

Dollar approaches 2-month high; 2-year yield rises 8.1 bps to 4.616%, the 11th straight day of gains, longest streak since September Fed's Mester noted that the previous rate hikes will effect the econonmy Inflation is looking stickier than ever as the PCE supercore surges US stocks are rallying as Washington DC nears a debt deal ahead of the long weekend. The risks that a debt deal could fall apart at the 11th hour remains, which makes Treasury Secretary Yellen’s update over the X-date criti

26-05-2023 12:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Tokyo core-core CPI continues to accelerate with USD/JPY now below key 141.00

Tokyo core-core CPI (excluding fresh food & energy) accelerated to a 31-year high BoJ’s latest guidance from Governor Ueda is no longer making wage growth as a main priority, raising the possibility of a monetary policy normalization in H2 2023. The 5-month rally of USD/JPY is now coming close to key short-term resistance at 141.00. This week’s latest release of key leading economic data out of Japan has indicated signs of sustained inflationary growth

26-05-2023 04:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Investors forced to reconsider interest rate forecasts amid disappointing data

UK interest rate expectations rise after inflation data We're seeing very mixed trade on Thursday, with the Nasdaq making strong gains of more than 1.5%, the Dow and S&P treading water, and Europe mostly in the red. Once more there's a heavy focus on central banks and whether investors have been too optimistic about when and where the peak in interest rates will come, and by extension how soon after they'll fall. UK inflation data on Wednesday was very disappointing, despite finally falling bac

25-05-2023 11:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil slides over OPEC, gold falls after FOMC minutes

Russia cools talk over OPEC+ output cut Oil prices are sliding again on Thursday after the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, appeared to cool expectations of an imminent output cut from OPEC+ ahead of the meeting in a little over a week. Suspicions of a second consecutive cut came as prices slipped, and remained, below $80 a barrel - the point at which the group announced a surprise cut previously - and Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned short speculators

25-05-2023 10:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD edges lower, markets eye UK retail sales

UK retail sales expected to fall sharply US debt ceiling impasse continues FOMC minutes show Fed divided over rate policy GBP/USD continues its downswing. The pound is trading at 1.2340, down 0.20% and is at a one-month low against the US dollar. The UK releases retail sales for April on Friday.

25-05-2023 09:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY drifting ahead of Tokyo Core CPI

USD/JPY edges closer to 140 Markets await Japanese inflation US Treasury yields jump as debt crisis continues FOMC minutes point to uncertainty over rate path USD/JPY is drifting higher in the European session, trading at 139.61, up 0.11%. Earlier, USD/JPY touched a high of 139.70, its highest level since November and close to the symbolic 140 level.

25-05-2023 08:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro dips lower on weak German data

Germany's GDP contracts in Q1 German consumer confidence remains deeply pessimistic FOMC minutes shows uncertainty over rate path EUR/USD is down for a third straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727, down 0.21%. German GDP contracts in Q1 Germany's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, after a 0.0% in Q4 2020, which was also the estimate.

25-05-2023 05:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yuan weakness spooks China and Asia ex-Japan stock markets

USD/CNH (offshore yuan) has surged to a 6-month high of 7.08. Since late Oct 2022, the movement of USD/CNH has had a high degree of correlation with China and Asia ex-Japan equities. Positive momentum factor remains intact for USD/CNH which may add further potential headwinds for China and Asia ex-Japan equities. The earlier “China re-opening theme play” gains of +20% to +56% that were seen in the China benchmark stock indices and its proxies (such as CSI 300 & Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

25-05-2023 02:51 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Debt deal angst, RBNZ all done with tightening, hot UK inflation, improving oil fundamentals

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They give the latest update with debt ceiling talks, discuss the end of RBNZ tightening, a hot UK CPI report, and why oil prices are rising.

24-05-2023 16:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Here comes debt ceiling pain and rising risks of a Fed skip

FOMC Minutes: Officials split on whether more rate hikes are needed to fight inflation Republicans are holding the line of significant spending cuts T-bill yields surge to 7% US stocks are declining after Wall Street got hit with a one-two punch of rising debt default risks and on fears that inflation might not allow the Fed to pause their tightening cycle. The FOMC minutes showed that officials are split on continuing with rate hikes and that they will remain data dependent. Rate cuts are unl

24-05-2023 15:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro steady despite weak business confidence data

Germany's Ifo Business Climate falls German GDP expected to stall in Q4 EUR/USD is drifting higher on Wednesday and is trading at 1.0781, up 0.11%. German Business Confidence dips Germany's Ifo Business Climate for May fell to 91.7, following a downwardly revised 93.4 in April and shy of the estimate of 93.0 points. This was the first decline after a six-month expansion.

24-05-2023 09:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD dips after disappointing UK inflation

UK headline inflation falls but the core rate jumps US debt ceiling impasse continues, boosting US dollar GBP/USD is down for a third straight day, trading at 1.2374, down 0.33%. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2369, its lowest level since April 18th.

24-05-2023 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD slides after RBNZ hike of 0.25%

RBNZ hikes by 0.25%, signals end of tightening cycle New Zealand retail sales decline NZD/USD slides by 1.8% The New Zealand dollar is taking a bath on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down a massive 1.78% on the day.

24-05-2023 05:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

The RBNZ is seemingly done but UK inflation data shows the BoE has a lot to do

It's been a tough start to the trading day, with UK inflation data sending worrying signals while the RBNZ seemed to declare job done in its inflation battle. Bitterly disappointing inflation report from the UK The headline UK inflation number may look like a massive step in the right direction in April but the reality is that there's far more to be concerned about in the report than happy. On the one hand, inflation has slipped significantly from 10.1% to 8.7%.

24-05-2023 04:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD: RBNZ less hawkish tilt reinforces USD bulls

RBNZ hiked its official cash rate as expected by 25 bps to 5.50% It is the first time RB NZ’s monetary policy-setting committee went to a vote today. Split vote of 5 to 2 has indicated a high probability 5.50% is the terminal rate after today’s hike. USD bulls are playing catch-up against prior NZD’s outperformance. The New Zealand dollar, NZD is the weakest currency against the US dollar in today’s Asian session as it tumbled by -1.10% at this time of the writing reinforced by post-RBNZ, the

24-05-2023 01:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Stocks plunge as debt deadline nears

Stock breadth deteriorates as equal versus cap-weighted S&P ratio falls to lowest levels since early 2022 Treasury cash balance rises to $68.3 billion on May 22nd Risk appetite struggles as little progress made over raising debt ceiling US stocks are declining as debt ceiling talks have hit a major roadblock and the latest round of economic data suggests the disinflation process is going to start to struggle. What is also weighing on sentiment is the China-US confrontation which could put add

23-05-2023 16:21 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflation

UK inflation expected to fall sharply on Wednesday IMF revises upwards UK growth forecast GBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation expected to ease UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived.

23-05-2023 12:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD slips ahead of RBNZ decision

New Zealand retail sales expected to decline RBNZ projected to deliver 25-bp hike The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6259, down 0.45% on the day. Debt ceiling impasse boosts US yields The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as the markets remain nervous about the US debt ceiling standoff.

23-05-2023 10:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Forex: all news & analysis