Forex: All News & Analysis

Week Ahead - US inflation data the headline, BoC ponders another hike, possible RBNZ pause

This week is all about inflation. Annual inflation will tumble as energy prices drop and due to base effects, but many traders will pay close attention to the core readings.

07-07-2023 08:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steady ahead of nonfarm payrolls, Lagarde speech

EUR/USD is unchanged in the European session, trading at 1.0893. Nonfarm payrolls expected to decline All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to decline for June. However, this week's employment numbers have been mixed, and it will be interesting to see which direction the nonfarm payrolls release takes. The ADP employment report, which precedes the nonfarm payrolls release by a day or two, tends to get glossed over, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm

07-07-2023 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen jumps on wage growth, nonfarm payrolls next

Japanese wage growth rises, household spending declines US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall USD/JPY is sharply lower The Japanese yen has climbed sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.02, down 0.72%.

07-07-2023 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US, Canada job reports

US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop, but massive ADP jobs report is making investors nervous Canada's labour market is expected to rebound with a 20,000 gain The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. Will nonfarm payroll

07-07-2023 04:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

No summer lull for global equities

Bullish breakout seen in US Treasury 10-year yield above 3.90%, next resistance at 4.46%. Long-duration assets (fixed income & growth stocks) sold off and underperformed in the past two days. Record low level of implied correlation among S&P 500 stocks may lead to a spike in VIX. Asian stocks underperformed reinforced by a weak yuan despite subtle interventions by PBoC. Déjà vu, it’s all about government bond yields again In the past two days, we have seen several significant movements in the g

07-07-2023 02:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD rises on strong US jobs and services data

ADP employment surprises with a huge gain of 497,000 On Friday, US releases nonfarm payrolls and Canada publishes the employment report Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000, Canada projected to add 20,000 jobs The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, down 0.58%.

06-07-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading

ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year ISM Services Index makes 4-month high ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020 US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.

06-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie pares gains as US ADP jobs report sparkles

Australia posts strong trade surplus US ADP employment surprises with massive gain US unemployment claims and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Thursday Thursday has been a busy day for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar rose after a strong Australian trade balance report but has reversed directions following a sparking US ADP employment release.

06-07-2023 09:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY gains ground, Fed minutes show policy divisions

FOMC minutes highlight policy divisions USD/JPY falls sharply Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. Fed minutes point to disagreement over rate path The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes.

06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Soft open for US stocks ahead of key labor/service data

China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills Tesla and China's top car manufacturers pledge to avoid 'abnormal pricing' Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week. Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports. The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate inc

06-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Fed Minutes send bond yields higher

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight throughout the rest of the year. If inflation remains persistent, that could be a gamechanger for inflation expectations. Wall Street was getting comfortable with higher for a little bit longer, but they are not ready to price in more than a half-point in rate hikes. In order to conquer inflation the Fe

05-07-2023 17:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Technicals and Triggers - USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD

The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down. Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening. Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand. The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m

05-07-2023 17:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Rough Waters Ahead in H2

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the RBA rate decision, what the latest factory data says about the economy, and what is driving both oil and gold prices.

05-07-2023 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie falls as China PMI weakens, FOMC minutes loom

AUD/USD slips after a four-day rally China's Services PMI eases in June Australia's retail sales jump 0.7% in May FOMC minutes will be released later on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a four-day rally that saw the Aussie climb 100 pips. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6663, down 0.42%. China's Services PMI eases but indicates expansion China is Australia's largest trading partner, making the Aussie sensitive to

05-07-2023 11:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes next

Eurozone and German Services PMIs weaken in June Markets looking for clues as Fed releases minutes on Wednesday EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. German and eurozone Services PMIs ease The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration.

05-07-2023 06:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Is Japan mulling an intervention?

Japanese Services PMI continues to expand Federal Reserve to release June meeting minutes on Wednesday USD/JPY continues to have a very quiet week and is trading at 144.36, down 0.07%, in the European session. Japanese Services PMI points to growth Japanese business activity continues to expand. The Services PMI, released on Wednesday, was revised lower to 54.0 in June from 54.2.

05-07-2023 05:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Still evolving in a medium-term downtrend

The medium-term downtrend phase of EUR/GBP in place since the 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979 remains intact. Recent price actions have staged a decline from its 28 June 2023 high of 0.8658 and reintegrated below the 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance of 0.8610 to maintain a bearish tone Since its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979, the EUR/GBP has continued to evolve in a medium-term downtrend phase as depicted by its price actions that oscillated within a descending channel

05-07-2023 03:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD eyes eurozone and German services PMIs

German and Eurozone PMIs expected to ease on Wednesday Fed releases minutes of June meeting on Wednesday US yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981 EUR/USD is drifting downward on Tuesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0898, down 0.15%.

04-07-2023 13:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Swiss franc steady after inflation dips

Swiss inflation lower than expected US markets closed on Tuesday Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Tuesday, trading at 0.8959 in the European session. US markets are closed for the July Fourth holiday and we can expect a quiet day for USD/CHF. Swiss inflation falls to 1.7% Switzerland's inflation rate dipped in June to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in May and just below the consensus of 1.8%.

04-07-2023 07:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China’s proxy stock market rallied, hawkish pause for RBA

US-China geopolitical tension remains on heat after the latest China exports curb on key metals for semiconductor chip production. China’s proxy stock market; Hang Seng benchmark stock indices rallied to a 5-day high. RBA left its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, a pause after two consecutive interest rate hikes but hinted in its monetary policy statement is tilted towards a hawkish pause. Actions speak louder than words in geopolitics In the past two weeks, we have witnessed key officials

04-07-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Forex: all news & analysis